Intercensal Population Impact on Rates

Note: The 1969-2012 US Populations are now available. The 1969-2011 data files will continue to be available for download through May 15, 2014.

New intercensal population estimates have been released by the Census Bureau that modify previous estimates to account for the actual values from Census 2010. This process is described in the Methodology for the Intercensal Population and Housing Unit Estimates: 2000 to 2010External Web Site Policy (PDF). In general, the new intercensal population estimates are very close to previous estimates, although this varies by state. Changes in the population denominator for rate calculations can cause shifts in the opposite direction for disease rate calculations based on these new populations.

To provide an idea of how the new intercensal populations will impact rates, we compared the impact of the previous vintage on state-level death rates with the impact of the intercensal estimates. Specifically, we calculated the percentage change in age-adjusted death rate for:

  • 2007 deaths using the 2007 populations from Vintage 2008 and Vintage 2009
  • 2009 deaths using the 2009 populations from Vintage 2009 and the new Intercensal Estimates

We did this for all causes of death, all malignant cancers, lung and bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, and prostate cancer. Histograms of the percentage difference in rates are shown below.

Download the results: Intercensal Population Impact Data Table (CSV 42 KB)

  • Histogram, All Causes of Death Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between -1% and +3% with the largest group between 0% and +2%.

    Histogram, All Causes of Death Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates from Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between -4% and +7% with the largest group between -1% and +3%.

  • Histogram, All Malignant Cancers Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between -2% and +2% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

    Histogram, All Malignant Cancers Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates from Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between -3% and +4% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

  • Histogram, Lung and Bronchus Cancer Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between -2% and +2% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

    Histogram, Lung and Bronchus Cancer Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates from Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between -3% and +4% with the largest group between -1% and 0%.

  • Histogram, Colorectal Cancer Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between -2% and +2% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

    Histogram, Colorectal Cancer Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates from Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between -4% and +4% with the largest group between -1% and 0%.

  • Histogram, Breast Cancer (Female) Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between -1% and +2% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

    Histogram, Breast Cancer (Female) Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates from Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between -4% and +5% with the largest group between -1% and +1%.

  • Histogram, Prostate Vintage 2008-2009

    The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was between 0% and +4% with the largest group between +1% and +3% and one state (the District of Columbia) at +7.8%. This general increase in prostate cancer death rates is due to a decrease in the 75+ populations for many states with the new vintage. Prostate cancer deaths occur mostly in men 75 and older.

    Histogram, Prostate Vintage 2009-Intercensal

    The percentage change in 2009 state death rates Vintage 2009 to Intercensal 2010 was between 7% and +9% with the largest group between -3% and 0%, and the second largest group between 2% and 3%. The largest reduction is for Connecticut at -6.7% and the largest increase is for Arizona +8.8%. The other states in the "> 5%" category are Nevada (6.0%), Florida (6.59%), and South Carolina (7.23%). These large changes in prostate cancer death rates are due to large changes in the populations of males age 75+ for these states with the new vintage. Prostate cancer deaths occur mostly in men 75 and older.