Vintage 2009 Impact on Rates
The Census Bureau revised their population estimation methodology with Vintage 2009. The changes are summarized in the Release Notes for Vintage 2009
(PDF). The net impact of the methodological changes is a general downward shift of the of the latest post-censal population estimates when compared to Vintage 2008, although this varies by state. This general downward shift in the populations causes a general upward shift in disease rate calculations based on these new populations. The Vintage 2009 revision only impacted population estimates for 2000 forward. The following documentation describes the process by which US Census produced the April 1, 2000 through July 1, 2008 annual resident population estimates at the county level: Methodology for the State and County Total Resident Population Estimates (Vintage 2009): April 1, 2000 to July 1 (PDF).
To provide an idea of how the new vintage will impact rates, we compared the impact of the previous vintage on state-level death rates with the impact of this vintage. Specifically, we calculated the percentage change in age-adjusted death rate for:
- 2006 deaths using the 2006 populations from Vintage 2007 and Vintage 2008
- 2007 deaths using the 2007 populations from Vintage 2008 and Vintage 2009
We did this for all causes of death, all malignant cancers, lung and bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, and prostate cancer. Histograms of the percentage difference in rates are shown below.
Download the results: Vintage 2009 Impact Data Table (CSV 43k)
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -0.5% and +0.5% with the largest group between 0% and +0.5%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between -1.0% and +2.5% with the largest group between +0.5% and +1.0%.
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -0.5% and +0.5% with the largest group between 0% and +0.5%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between -1.0% and +2.0% with the largest group between +0% and +0.5%.
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -0.5% and +0.5% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between -1.5% and +1.5% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -0.5% and +1.0% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between -1.0% and +1.5% with the largest group between +0.5% and +1.0%.
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -0.5% and +0.5% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between -1.0% and +1.5% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
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The percentage change in 2006 state death rates from Vintage 2007 to 2008 was generally between -1.0% and +1.0% with the largest group between -0.5% and 0%.
The percentage change in 2007 state death rates from Vintage 2008 to 2009 was generally between 0% and +3.5% with the largest group between +1.5% and +2.0% and one state (the District of Columbia) at +7.8%. This increase in prostate cancer death rates is due to a decrease in the 85+ populations for most states with the new vintage. Prostate cancer deaths occur mostly in men 85 and older.
