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Figure 2.1

CSR Figure 2.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex


Figure 2.1

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2010, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 468.5 469.4 468.5 469.5 254.0 254.4
1976 481.9 476.1 481.9 476.2 257.5 256.8
1977 487.2 482.9 487.2 483.0 258.8 259.1
1978 489.7 489.8 489.7 489.8 261.6 261.5
1979 497.6 496.8 497.6 496.8 263.2 263.9
1980 505.2 504.0 505.2 503.9 265.0 264.5
1981 510.9 511.2 510.9 511.1 263.3 265.2
1982 512.6 518.5 512.5 518.4 266.3 265.8
1983 521.1 525.9 521.0 525.8 267.2 266.4
1984 527.9 533.5 527.7 533.3 267.6 267.1
1985 533.8 541.1 533.6 540.9 268.2 267.7
1986 543.2 548.9 542.9 548.6 268.8 268.4
1987 569.2 556.7 568.8 556.4 269.0 269.1
1988 565.5 564.7 565.0 564.3 269.5 269.7
1989 574.0 572.8 573.5 572.4 270.2 270.4
1990 599.9 601.5 599.3 601.0 271.5 271.0
1991 645.2 631.6 644.5 631.0 271.2 271.7
1992 664.2 663.2 663.4 662.6 268.9 269.6
1993 621.1 629.8 620.2 628.8 267.9 267.5
1994 588.4 598.2 587.5 596.7 264.7 265.4
1995 571.1 568.1 570.1 566.3 261.5 260.8
1996 575.1 571.4 574.0 570.0 256.8 256.3
1997 577.6 574.7 576.5 573.7 251.6 251.8
1998 577.7 578.1 576.5 577.4 247.6 248.9
1999 584.2 581.5 582.7 581.2 247.1 246.0
2000 585.7 584.9 583.9 585.0 243.4 243.1
2001 589.3 588.3 587.4 581.1 240.3 240.3
2002 583.2 583.0 581.1 577.2 237.6 236.2
2003 567.2 577.7 564.9 573.4 232.2 232.3
2004 566.3 572.4 563.6 569.6 226.6 228.4
2005 560.4 567.2 557.3 565.8 224.9 224.5
2006 566.3 562.1 562.6 562.0 220.0 220.7
2007 576.0 557.0 571.4 558.3 216.6 217.0
2008 556.7 551.9 551.1 554.6 213.2 213.4
2009 548.2 546.9 541.1 540.7 209.3 209.8
2010 537.8 541.9 528.2 527.1 207.2 206.3
2011 529.3 537.0 513.0 513.9 203.2 202.8
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2010, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 525.5 533.0 525.5 532.8 320.5 322.5
1976 552.9 548.0 552.9 547.9 328.4 328.4
1977 577.6 563.4 577.6 563.5 337.9 334.4
1978 570.7 579.3 570.7 579.5 340.9 340.5
1979 589.7 595.6 589.7 595.9 344.7 346.7
1980 615.1 612.4 615.1 612.9 353.9 353.0
1981 633.9 629.6 633.9 630.3 358.6 359.5
1982 621.9 633.7 621.9 634.0 364.9 366.0
1983 646.1 637.9 646.0 637.8 369.3 369.7
1984 643.9 642.1 643.7 641.6 377.9 373.4
1985 643.7 646.3 643.4 645.4 377.8 377.1
1986 644.2 650.5 643.9 649.3 378.9 380.9
1987 666.3 654.8 665.9 653.1 383.2 384.7
1988 657.9 659.1 657.4 657.0 384.2 388.6
1989 661.7 663.4 661.2 661.0 395.3 392.5
1990 700.1 707.9 699.4 710.2 399.1 396.4
1991 765.3 755.3 764.5 763.2 395.9 395.3
1992 809.3 805.9 808.4 820.1 389.2 394.3
1993 819.0 793.3 817.9 799.2 394.8 393.2
1994 784.3 780.8 783.1 778.8 385.2 385.5
1995 750.3 768.6 749.0 759.0 379.0 377.9
1996 728.0 756.6 726.6 739.6 373.7 370.5
1997 741.1 744.7 739.6 731.1 363.2 363.2
1998 724.0 733.1 722.4 722.7 353.1 356.0
1999 724.6 721.6 722.7 714.4 349.2 349.0
2000 713.6 710.3 711.4 706.2 341.2 342.2
2001 699.4 699.2 697.1 698.0 334.1 333.2
2002 699.7 688.2 697.1 690.0 325.8 324.4
2003 681.4 677.4 678.6 682.1 314.6 315.9
2004 686.0 666.8 682.8 674.2 307.3 307.6
2005 644.3 656.4 640.7 666.5 300.3 299.6
2006 645.4 659.2 641.1 658.8 290.2 291.7
2007 668.9 662.0 663.5 651.2 286.6 284.0
2008 665.1 664.8 658.4 643.7 275.3 276.6
2009 640.5 640.9 632.3 636.3 268.9 269.3
2010 617.7 617.9 606.7 606.4 264.2 262.2
2011 596.0 595.7 577.8 577.9 253.9 255.4
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2010, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 369.6 371.0 369.6 371.0 159.0 159.7
1976 373.1 370.2 373.1 370.2 161.7 160.5
1977 367.9 369.3 367.9 369.4 161.6 161.4
1978 368.0 368.5 368.0 368.6 162.5 162.3
1979 369.7 367.7 369.7 367.8 161.7 163.2
1980 373.4 373.9 373.4 374.0 164.2 164.1
1981 383.9 380.3 383.9 380.2 164.6 165.0
1982 383.5 386.7 383.5 386.6 166.1 166.0
1983 388.1 393.2 388.0 393.1 166.7 166.9
1984 399.7 399.9 399.6 399.7 169.0 167.8
1985 411.7 406.6 411.5 406.4 169.6 168.7
1986 409.4 413.5 409.2 413.2 170.0 169.7
1987 423.5 420.5 423.3 420.2 169.9 170.6
1988 418.1 421.0 417.9 420.7 170.9 171.5
1989 418.9 421.5 418.6 421.2 172.9 172.5
1990 425.2 422.0 424.8 421.7 172.9 173.4
1991 429.0 422.5 428.6 422.3 173.4 173.1
1992 424.0 423.1 423.5 422.8 172.6 172.9
1993 417.6 423.6 417.1 423.3 172.8 172.6
1994 423.7 424.1 423.1 423.8 172.6 172.3
1995 426.8 424.6 426.2 424.3 171.7 172.0
1996 428.9 432.0 428.2 430.7 169.8 169.9
1997 441.9 439.5 441.2 437.2 167.3 167.8
1998 447.8 447.1 447.0 443.8 165.4 165.8
1999 444.7 445.1 443.7 442.7 165.9 165.4
2000 438.9 443.1 437.8 441.6 166.0 165.1
2001 443.6 441.2 442.4 440.5 163.8 164.7
2002 442.4 439.3 441.0 439.4 162.6 162.5
2003 433.9 437.3 432.4 438.3 160.4 160.3
2004 435.2 435.4 433.4 437.2 157.4 158.1
2005 435.9 436.2 433.8 436.1 156.0 155.9
2006 436.2 437.0 433.6 435.1 154.5 153.8
2007 437.7 437.7 434.6 434.0 151.9 151.7
2008 440.7 438.5 436.7 432.9 149.4 149.7
2009 444.4 439.3 439.3 431.8 147.5 147.6
2010 436.4 440.1 429.3 430.8 145.9 145.6
2011 439.4 440.9 427.0 429.7 143.4 143.6
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2010, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 356.6 344.0 356.6 343.5 174.2 177.2
1976 340.6 347.8 340.6 347.4 179.1 179.0
1977 352.0 351.7 352.0 351.3 181.6 180.8
1978 343.6 355.6 343.6 355.3 181.5 182.6
1979 359.1 359.5 359.1 359.3 182.7 184.4
1980 366.5 363.5 366.5 363.4 189.2 186.2
1981 362.9 367.5 362.9 367.5 187.5 188.0
1982 359.4 371.6 359.4 371.6 190.2 189.9
1983 382.1 375.7 382.0 375.8 193.2 191.8
1984 386.1 379.8 386.0 380.1 195.7 193.7
1985 388.4 384.0 388.3 384.4 196.3 195.6
1986 396.6 388.3 396.4 388.7 199.1 197.6
1987 394.4 392.6 394.2 393.1 199.9 199.5
1988 404.5 396.9 404.2 397.5 200.4 201.5
1989 384.9 401.3 384.6 402.0 200.9 203.5
1990 409.5 405.8 409.1 406.6 205.4 205.5
1991 412.8 410.3 412.4 411.2 207.4 207.6
1992 413.6 410.7 413.2 411.3 205.8 206.5
1993 404.3 411.1 403.9 411.4 206.3 205.5
1994 409.5 411.5 408.9 411.5 204.1 204.4
1995 405.0 412.0 404.4 411.6 204.5 203.4
1996 417.6 412.4 416.9 411.7 200.9 202.3
1997 410.6 412.8 409.9 411.8 202.5 201.3
1998 416.2 413.3 415.5 411.9 198.4 199.1
1999 421.1 413.7 420.1 412.0 197.5 196.8
2000 404.7 414.1 403.6 412.1 193.2 194.7
2001 401.6 414.5 400.4 412.2 192.1 192.5
2002 426.4 415.0 425.0 412.3 191.4 190.3
2003 412.8 415.4 411.4 412.4 188.8 188.2
2004 419.9 415.8 418.2 412.5 183.5 184.6
2005 421.0 416.3 419.0 412.6 180.9 181.0
2006 416.7 416.7 414.2 412.7 177.3 177.5
2007 416.3 417.1 413.3 412.8 175.5 174.1
2008 419.5 417.6 415.7 412.9 170.4 170.8
2009 424.1 418.0 419.2 413.0 167.4 167.5
2010 409.3 418.4 402.7 413.1 166.2 166.7
2011 418.3 418.9 406.5 413.2 166.2 165.9
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
All Sites, All Ages, 1975-2010
Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male2001-11-0.9*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2008-11-2.5*
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2001-11-1.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male2008-11-3.6*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male2009-11-4.7*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2000-11-2.6*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female2004-110.2
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female1998-11-0.2*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2001-11-1.4*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female1991-110.1
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female1991-110.0
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female2009-11-0.5

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.1.0, April 2014, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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