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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2010, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2010, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 24.0 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 28.9 | 30.7 | 28.9 | 30.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1991 | 39.4 | 37.8 | 39.3 | 37.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1992 | 49.5 | 46.5 | 49.4 | 46.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 49.1 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 47.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1994 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 46.8 | 49.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1995 | 48.3 | 51.0 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1996 | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.0 | 52.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.2 | 54.1 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.3 | 55.8 | 53.1 | 55.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 59.1 | 57.5 | 58.8 | 57.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 60.2 | 59.3 | 59.9 | 59.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 62.9 | 61.1 | 62.6 | 61.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 64.3 | 63.0 | 63.9 | 62.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 60.2 | 62.4 | 59.8 | 62.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.8 | 61.9 | 60.3 | 61.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 55.9 | 61.3 | 55.4 | 60.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 63.2 | 60.8 | 62.5 | 59.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.5 | 60.3 | 63.7 | 59.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.9 | 59.8 | 59.9 | 58.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 61.0 | 59.2 | 59.7 | 57.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 57.3 | 58.7 | 55.7 | 57.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 56.0 | 58.2 | 53.6 | 56.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.6 | 26.8 | 29.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.2 | 26.4 | 30.2 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.1 | 33.4 | 37.1 | 33.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| 1988 | 34.9 | 36.2 | 34.9 | 36.2 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1989 | 37.3 | 37.0 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.7 | 46.6 | 44.7 | 46.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| 1991 | 57.5 | 58.8 | 57.5 | 58.7 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| 1992 | 78.2 | 74.2 | 78.1 | 74.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| 1993 | 94.5 | 93.6 | 94.4 | 93.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 96.1 | 95.9 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 99.7 | 98.7 | 99.5 | 98.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 100.8 | 101.4 | 100.6 | 101.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 98.0 | 104.1 | 97.7 | 104.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| 1998 | 104.1 | 106.9 | 103.9 | 106.8 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| 1999 | 113.0 | 109.8 | 112.6 | 109.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 2000 | 115.0 | 112.8 | 114.5 | 112.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| 2001 | 115.4 | 115.8 | 114.8 | 115.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2002 | 118.1 | 115.0 | 117.5 | 114.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 116.9 | 114.3 | 116.2 | 113.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| 2004 | 107.1 | 113.5 | 106.3 | 112.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2005 | 107.4 | 112.8 | 106.4 | 111.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 2006 | 109.7 | 112.1 | 108.5 | 110.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 119.8 | 111.3 | 118.3 | 109.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 111.8 | 110.6 | 110.0 | 108.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2009 | 111.9 | 109.9 | 109.6 | 107.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010 | 106.8 | 109.2 | 103.9 | 106.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 2011 | 107.0 | 108.4 | 102.4 | 105.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.4 | 631.2 | 639.4 | 631.3 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 674.1 | 648.2 | 674.1 | 648.3 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.6 | 665.8 | 680.6 | 665.8 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.1 | 721.3 | 729.1 | 721.2 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.4 | 740.8 | 743.4 | 740.7 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.2 | 760.9 | 740.2 | 760.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.3 | 781.5 | 762.2 | 781.3 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.3 | 802.7 | 759.1 | 802.3 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 785.6 | 824.4 | 785.3 | 824.0 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.8 | 846.7 | 815.4 | 846.3 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.7 | 869.6 | 919.2 | 869.1 | 241.3 | 239.8 |
| 1988 | 944.6 | 893.2 | 943.9 | 892.6 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 991.2 | 1026.7 | 990.3 | 1025.9 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1168.9 | 1180.3 | 1167.7 | 1179.3 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1442.8 | 1356.8 | 1441.2 | 1355.5 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1547.0 | 1559.8 | 1545.0 | 1558.1 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1281.0 | 1312.4 | 1279.2 | 1310.1 | 270.8 | 269.4 |
| 1994 | 1056.6 | 1104.2 | 1054.9 | 1101.7 | 266.0 | 268.1 |
| 1995 | 969.2 | 929.1 | 967.5 | 926.4 | 256.9 | 256.3 |
| 1996 | 949.7 | 947.4 | 947.9 | 945.2 | 246.4 | 245.0 |
| 1997 | 974.4 | 966.0 | 971.8 | 964.4 | 234.6 | 234.3 |
| 1998 | 960.3 | 985.1 | 957.6 | 983.9 | 223.4 | 223.9 |
| 1999 | 1014.2 | 1004.5 | 1010.4 | 1003.9 | 216.9 | 216.2 |
| 2000 | 1010.5 | 1024.3 | 1006.2 | 1024.3 | 208.3 | 208.8 |
| 2001 | 1018.8 | 994.4 | 1014.0 | 991.9 | 202.1 | 201.6 |
| 2002 | 986.1 | 965.5 | 980.7 | 960.5 | 197.5 | 194.7 |
| 2003 | 908.0 | 937.4 | 902.3 | 930.1 | 187.0 | 188.0 |
| 2004 | 873.1 | 910.1 | 866.7 | 900.6 | 179.5 | 181.5 |
| 2005 | 827.9 | 883.6 | 820.5 | 872.1 | 174.2 | 175.3 |
| 2006 | 905.6 | 857.9 | 896.0 | 844.5 | 165.8 | 169.2 |
| 2007 | 910.7 | 832.9 | 898.9 | 817.8 | 165.6 | 163.4 |
| 2008 | 805.0 | 808.7 | 792.0 | 791.9 | 158.3 | 157.8 |
| 2009 | 784.4 | 785.2 | 768.3 | 766.8 | 151.1 | 152.4 |
| 2010 | 751.1 | 762.3 | 730.6 | 742.6 | 148.6 | 147.1 |
| 2011 | 716.0 | 740.1 | 685.0 | 719.1 | 142.6 | 142.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 931.2 | 949.1 | 931.2 | 949.3 | 394.0 | 386.3 |
| 1976 | 910.9 | 968.4 | 910.9 | 968.5 | 392.2 | 395.3 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 988.1 | 1057.2 | 988.1 | 398.7 | 404.5 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1008.1 | 986.4 | 1008.2 | 416.1 | 413.9 |
| 1979 | 1098.9 | 1028.6 | 1098.9 | 1028.6 | 422.9 | 423.5 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1049.5 | 1041.4 | 1049.4 | 445.0 | 433.3 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1070.8 | 1041.9 | 1070.7 | 454.4 | 443.4 |
| 1982 | 1109.9 | 1092.6 | 1109.8 | 1092.3 | 447.7 | 453.7 |
| 1983 | 1117.1 | 1114.7 | 1116.9 | 1114.5 | 462.5 | 464.2 |
| 1984 | 1158.5 | 1137.4 | 1158.1 | 1137.0 | 475.1 | 475.0 |
| 1985 | 1128.1 | 1160.5 | 1127.7 | 1160.1 | 482.7 | 486.1 |
| 1986 | 1098.9 | 1184.0 | 1098.3 | 1183.6 | 487.4 | 497.4 |
| 1987 | 1248.3 | 1208.1 | 1247.6 | 1207.5 | 499.0 | 508.9 |
| 1988 | 1264.7 | 1232.6 | 1263.8 | 1232.0 | 502.3 | 520.8 |
| 1989 | 1260.7 | 1257.6 | 1259.6 | 1256.9 | 518.5 | 532.9 |
| 1990 | 1452.4 | 1508.9 | 1450.9 | 1507.1 | 565.6 | 545.3 |
| 1991 | 1891.4 | 1810.3 | 1889.3 | 1807.0 | 570.2 | 557.9 |
| 1992 | 2063.5 | 2172.0 | 2060.9 | 2166.6 | 578.7 | 570.9 |
| 1993 | 2081.2 | 1987.1 | 2078.2 | 1986.2 | 599.1 | 584.2 |
| 1994 | 1828.2 | 1818.0 | 1825.2 | 1820.8 | 585.9 | 597.8 |
| 1995 | 1560.2 | 1663.3 | 1557.4 | 1669.1 | 572.5 | 581.4 |
| 1996 | 1553.1 | 1621.1 | 1550.2 | 1623.9 | 579.2 | 565.4 |
| 1997 | 1590.2 | 1580.0 | 1586.0 | 1579.8 | 544.2 | 549.9 |
| 1998 | 1570.8 | 1539.9 | 1566.3 | 1537.0 | 532.4 | 534.8 |
| 1999 | 1539.5 | 1500.9 | 1533.8 | 1495.3 | 514.8 | 520.2 |
| 2000 | 1528.7 | 1462.8 | 1522.2 | 1454.8 | 507.8 | 505.9 |
| 2001 | 1391.6 | 1425.7 | 1384.9 | 1415.3 | 499.7 | 492.1 |
| 2002 | 1479.4 | 1389.5 | 1471.3 | 1377.0 | 477.8 | 472.4 |
| 2003 | 1268.2 | 1354.3 | 1260.3 | 1339.6 | 441.0 | 453.5 |
| 2004 | 1318.3 | 1319.9 | 1308.6 | 1303.3 | 433.7 | 435.4 |
| 2005 | 1257.4 | 1286.4 | 1246.2 | 1268.0 | 417.8 | 418.0 |
| 2006 | 1259.3 | 1253.8 | 1246.0 | 1233.6 | 393.5 | 401.3 |
| 2007 | 1289.5 | 1222.0 | 1272.9 | 1200.1 | 403.0 | 385.3 |
| 2008 | 1235.0 | 1191.0 | 1215.0 | 1167.6 | 357.6 | 369.9 |
| 2009 | 1172.1 | 1160.8 | 1148.1 | 1135.9 | 359.7 | 355.1 |
| 2010 | 1101.9 | 1131.4 | 1071.8 | 1105.1 | 350.1 | 340.9 |
| 2011 | 1037.0 | 1102.7 | 992.0 | 1075.2 | 319.2 | 327.3 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2002-11 | -0.9 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2002-11 | -1.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2000-11 | -1.2* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-11 | -0.7 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-11 | -1.0* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 2006-11 | -1.5 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-11 | -2.9* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-11 | -3.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 1998-11 | -3.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-11 | -2.5* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-11 | -2.7* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2001-11 | -4.0* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.1.0, April 2014, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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