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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2008, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2008, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2008, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2008, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.2 | 22.3 | 20.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.0 | 24.9 | 24.0 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 28.9 | 30.6 | 28.8 | 30.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1991 | 39.3 | 37.7 | 39.3 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1992 | 49.4 | 46.3 | 49.4 | 46.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 49.0 | 47.8 | 49.0 | 47.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1994 | 46.8 | 49.3 | 46.8 | 49.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1995 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 48.1 | 50.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1996 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 51.9 | 52.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.1 | 54.2 | 54.0 | 54.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.2 | 55.9 | 53.1 | 55.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 59.0 | 57.7 | 58.7 | 57.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 60.2 | 59.6 | 59.9 | 59.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 62.9 | 61.5 | 62.6 | 61.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 64.3 | 61.4 | 63.9 | 61.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 60.2 | 61.4 | 59.6 | 60.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.7 | 61.3 | 60.1 | 60.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 55.8 | 61.3 | 55.1 | 60.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 63.0 | 61.2 | 62.0 | 60.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.1 | 61.2 | 62.9 | 59.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.5 | 61.1 | 59.0 | 59.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 60.9 | 61.1 | 58.5 | 59.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.6 | 26.8 | 29.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.2 | 26.4 | 30.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 30.8 | 33.8 | 30.8 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.7 | 34.0 | 32.7 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.1 | 33.4 | 37.1 | 33.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 34.1 | 34.7 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 35.9 | 35.4 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| 1988 | 34.7 | 36.2 | 34.7 | 36.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1989 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.6 | 46.5 | 44.6 | 46.5 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| 1991 | 57.4 | 58.7 | 57.3 | 58.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1992 | 78.1 | 74.0 | 77.9 | 73.9 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
| 1993 | 94.5 | 93.3 | 94.3 | 93.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 95.8 | 95.9 | 95.5 | 95.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 99.1 | 98.5 | 98.8 | 98.1 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 100.9 | 101.1 | 100.6 | 100.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 97.7 | 103.9 | 97.2 | 103.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| 1998 | 103.4 | 106.7 | 102.9 | 106.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| 1999 | 112.8 | 109.6 | 112.0 | 109.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 2000 | 115.3 | 112.6 | 114.4 | 112.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2001 | 116.0 | 115.6 | 114.9 | 115.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| 2002 | 119.9 | 115.6 | 118.5 | 114.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| 2003 | 119.0 | 115.6 | 117.4 | 113.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| 2004 | 108.9 | 115.6 | 107.1 | 113.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| 2005 | 109.0 | 115.6 | 106.8 | 112.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2006 | 112.3 | 115.5 | 109.7 | 112.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2007 | 123.0 | 115.5 | 119.5 | 111.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 2008 | 115.1 | 115.5 | 111.2 | 111.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | 115.9 | 115.5 | 109.7 | 110.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.4 | 631.2 | 639.4 | 631.3 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 673.8 | 648.2 | 673.8 | 648.3 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.7 | 665.8 | 680.7 | 665.8 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.1 | 721.3 | 729.1 | 721.2 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.4 | 740.8 | 743.4 | 740.7 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.3 | 760.9 | 740.3 | 760.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.3 | 781.5 | 762.2 | 781.3 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.4 | 802.6 | 759.2 | 802.4 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 785.8 | 824.3 | 785.5 | 824.0 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.7 | 846.7 | 815.4 | 846.3 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.4 | 869.6 | 918.9 | 869.1 | 241.3 | 239.8 |
| 1988 | 944.4 | 893.1 | 943.8 | 892.6 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 991.3 | 1026.6 | 990.4 | 1025.8 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1168.4 | 1180.0 | 1167.1 | 1178.9 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1442.6 | 1356.3 | 1440.9 | 1354.9 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1546.7 | 1559.0 | 1544.6 | 1557.1 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1280.6 | 1312.5 | 1278.5 | 1310.1 | 270.8 | 269.3 |
| 1994 | 1056.5 | 1104.9 | 1054.5 | 1102.3 | 266.0 | 268.1 |
| 1995 | 969.0 | 930.2 | 966.8 | 927.5 | 256.9 | 256.3 |
| 1996 | 948.1 | 947.0 | 945.8 | 944.3 | 246.4 | 245.1 |
| 1997 | 973.4 | 964.1 | 970.0 | 961.3 | 234.6 | 234.4 |
| 1998 | 959.8 | 981.6 | 956.0 | 978.7 | 223.4 | 224.2 |
| 1999 | 1014.7 | 999.3 | 1009.2 | 996.4 | 216.9 | 216.1 |
| 2000 | 1009.3 | 1017.4 | 1002.8 | 1014.4 | 208.1 | 208.4 |
| 2001 | 1018.1 | 989.6 | 1010.3 | 983.3 | 201.3 | 200.9 |
| 2002 | 986.5 | 962.6 | 977.4 | 953.2 | 196.2 | 193.7 |
| 2003 | 907.6 | 936.4 | 897.6 | 924.0 | 185.5 | 186.8 |
| 2004 | 872.3 | 910.8 | 860.8 | 895.6 | 178.0 | 180.1 |
| 2005 | 826.6 | 886.0 | 813.4 | 868.2 | 172.7 | 173.6 |
| 2006 | 898.4 | 861.8 | 881.0 | 841.5 | 164.4 | 167.4 |
| 2007 | 904.4 | 838.3 | 883.2 | 815.7 | 164.1 | 161.4 |
| 2008 | 796.5 | 815.4 | 773.6 | 790.7 | 156.9 | 155.6 |
| 2009 | 780.6 | 793.2 | 745.1 | 766.5 | 150.1 | 150.1 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 931.2 | 949.5 | 931.2 | 949.8 | 394.0 | 386.2 |
| 1976 | 910.9 | 968.8 | 910.9 | 969.0 | 392.2 | 395.2 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 988.5 | 1057.2 | 988.6 | 398.7 | 404.4 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1008.6 | 986.4 | 1008.6 | 416.1 | 413.8 |
| 1979 | 1102.1 | 1029.0 | 1102.1 | 1029.0 | 422.9 | 423.5 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1049.9 | 1041.4 | 1049.8 | 445.0 | 433.3 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1071.3 | 1041.9 | 1071.0 | 454.4 | 443.4 |
| 1982 | 1110.0 | 1093.0 | 1109.8 | 1092.6 | 447.7 | 453.7 |
| 1983 | 1117.2 | 1115.2 | 1116.9 | 1114.7 | 462.5 | 464.3 |
| 1984 | 1158.7 | 1137.9 | 1158.1 | 1137.2 | 475.1 | 475.1 |
| 1985 | 1129.7 | 1161.0 | 1129.0 | 1160.2 | 482.7 | 486.1 |
| 1986 | 1099.3 | 1184.6 | 1098.3 | 1183.6 | 487.4 | 497.4 |
| 1987 | 1248.9 | 1208.6 | 1247.6 | 1207.6 | 499.0 | 509.0 |
| 1988 | 1264.9 | 1233.2 | 1263.3 | 1232.0 | 502.3 | 520.8 |
| 1989 | 1263.3 | 1258.2 | 1261.3 | 1256.9 | 518.5 | 533.0 |
| 1990 | 1454.7 | 1511.5 | 1451.8 | 1508.4 | 565.6 | 545.3 |
| 1991 | 1892.1 | 1815.7 | 1888.1 | 1810.2 | 570.2 | 558.0 |
| 1992 | 2066.1 | 2181.2 | 2060.9 | 2172.4 | 578.7 | 571.0 |
| 1993 | 2082.8 | 1983.8 | 2076.6 | 1980.2 | 599.1 | 584.3 |
| 1994 | 1830.7 | 1804.2 | 1824.4 | 1805.1 | 585.9 | 597.9 |
| 1995 | 1556.5 | 1640.9 | 1550.2 | 1645.4 | 572.5 | 581.4 |
| 1996 | 1553.7 | 1604.4 | 1547.1 | 1603.6 | 579.2 | 565.3 |
| 1997 | 1594.8 | 1568.8 | 1585.1 | 1562.9 | 544.2 | 549.7 |
| 1998 | 1573.4 | 1534.0 | 1562.9 | 1523.2 | 532.4 | 534.5 |
| 1999 | 1537.9 | 1499.9 | 1524.2 | 1484.6 | 514.8 | 519.7 |
| 2000 | 1533.5 | 1466.6 | 1517.5 | 1446.9 | 508.0 | 505.4 |
| 2001 | 1392.4 | 1434.1 | 1375.3 | 1410.2 | 499.7 | 491.4 |
| 2002 | 1486.3 | 1402.2 | 1464.8 | 1374.4 | 477.6 | 472.2 |
| 2003 | 1270.9 | 1371.1 | 1249.3 | 1339.5 | 440.9 | 453.7 |
| 2004 | 1312.3 | 1340.6 | 1285.9 | 1305.5 | 434.1 | 436.0 |
| 2005 | 1247.8 | 1310.9 | 1218.1 | 1272.4 | 418.5 | 418.9 |
| 2006 | 1260.2 | 1281.8 | 1224.5 | 1240.1 | 394.2 | 402.5 |
| 2007 | 1293.4 | 1253.3 | 1249.7 | 1208.6 | 404.4 | 386.8 |
| 2008 | 1246.2 | 1225.5 | 1195.9 | 1177.9 | 358.7 | 371.7 |
| 2009 | 1206.7 | 1198.3 | 1132.9 | 1148.0 | 362.8 | 357.1 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2001-09 | -0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2001-09 | -0.4 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2000-09 | -1.2* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-09 | 0.0 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-09 | -0.5 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 1992-09 | -2.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-09 | -2.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-09 | -3.1* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 1998-09 | -3.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-09 | -2.2* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-09 | -2.5* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2001-09 | -3.9* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 3.5, April 2011, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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