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Figure 2.3
Figure 2.3
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
All Cancer Sites Combined, Ages 65 and Over, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2494.8 | 2510.7 | 2494.8 | 2510.5 | 1403.0 | 1404.8 |
| 1976 | 2570.7 | 2547.4 | 2570.7 | 2547.0 | 1427.1 | 1422.7 |
| 1977 | 2599.7 | 2584.6 | 2599.7 | 2584.1 | 1437.2 | 1440.8 |
| 1978 | 2620.8 | 2622.3 | 2620.8 | 2621.8 | 1460.1 | 1459.1 |
| 1979 | 2682.3 | 2660.6 | 2682.3 | 2660.0 | 1476.5 | 1477.6 |
| 1980 | 2720.1 | 2699.4 | 2720.1 | 2698.7 | 1488.6 | 1485.7 |
| 1981 | 2747.6 | 2738.8 | 2747.6 | 2738.0 | 1483.7 | 1493.7 |
| 1982 | 2768.6 | 2778.8 | 2768.5 | 2777.9 | 1508.4 | 1501.9 |
| 1983 | 2798.5 | 2819.4 | 2798.2 | 2818.4 | 1518.6 | 1510.0 |
| 1984 | 2832.1 | 2860.5 | 2831.6 | 2859.4 | 1519.8 | 1518.2 |
| 1985 | 2820.4 | 2902.3 | 2819.7 | 2901.1 | 1523.7 | 1526.5 |
| 1986 | 2884.6 | 2944.6 | 2883.7 | 2943.3 | 1534.2 | 1534.8 |
| 1987 | 3053.5 | 2987.6 | 3052.3 | 2986.2 | 1536.9 | 1543.1 |
| 1988 | 3037.6 | 3031.3 | 3036.1 | 3029.7 | 1545.6 | 1551.5 |
| 1989 | 3087.6 | 3075.5 | 3085.8 | 3073.9 | 1560.0 | 1559.9 |
| 1990 | 3260.2 | 3256.6 | 3257.8 | 3253.0 | 1573.9 | 1568.4 |
| 1991 | 3534.2 | 3448.3 | 3531.4 | 3442.6 | 1577.8 | 1576.9 |
| 1992 | 3646.7 | 3651.3 | 3643.2 | 3643.2 | 1573.3 | 1585.5 |
| 1993 | 3339.8 | 3397.5 | 3336.0 | 3391.1 | 1572.6 | 1568.6 |
| 1994 | 3098.2 | 3161.3 | 3094.2 | 3156.5 | 1557.5 | 1551.9 |
| 1995 | 2986.5 | 2941.5 | 2981.9 | 2938.1 | 1546.8 | 1535.4 |
| 1996 | 2992.8 | 2975.6 | 2987.5 | 2973.0 | 1520.4 | 1519.0 |
| 1997 | 3022.0 | 3009.9 | 3015.6 | 3008.2 | 1497.4 | 1502.9 |
| 1998 | 3045.0 | 3044.7 | 3038.0 | 3044.0 | 1476.1 | 1486.9 |
| 1999 | 3059.9 | 3079.9 | 3050.5 | 3080.1 | 1477.2 | 1471.0 |
| 2000 | 3031.9 | 3049.3 | 3020.9 | 3043.5 | 1458.8 | 1455.4 |
| 2001 | 3053.1 | 3018.9 | 3040.1 | 3007.3 | 1437.2 | 1439.9 |
| 2002 | 3005.0 | 2988.9 | 2989.9 | 2971.6 | 1422.9 | 1416.1 |
| 2003 | 2924.5 | 2959.2 | 2907.1 | 2936.2 | 1390.3 | 1392.8 |
| 2004 | 2909.0 | 2929.7 | 2888.4 | 2901.3 | 1359.6 | 1369.8 |
| 2005 | 2865.5 | 2900.6 | 2841.3 | 2866.8 | 1353.6 | 1347.2 |
| 2006 | 2884.8 | 2871.7 | 2855.6 | 2832.8 | 1321.3 | 1325.0 |
| 2007 | 2948.1 | 2843.1 | 2912.4 | 2799.1 | 1305.4 | 1303.2 |
| 2008 | 2827.8 | 2814.8 | 2786.5 | 2765.8 | 1281.6 | 1281.7 |
| 2009 | 2754.3 | 2786.8 | 2705.6 | 2732.9 | 1256.2 | 1260.5 |
| 2010 | 2717.7 | 2759.1 | 2634.6 | 2700.5 | 1244.3 | 1239.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2554.5 | 2731.3 | 2554.5 | 2735.6 | 1527.3 | 1544.3 |
| 1976 | 2714.7 | 2774.9 | 2714.7 | 2778.5 | 1584.7 | 1583.4 |
| 1977 | 2909.9 | 2819.3 | 2909.9 | 2822.1 | 1641.2 | 1623.4 |
| 1978 | 2781.1 | 2864.3 | 2781.1 | 2866.3 | 1662.1 | 1664.5 |
| 1979 | 2928.6 | 2910.1 | 2928.6 | 2911.2 | 1695.0 | 1706.6 |
| 1980 | 3011.7 | 2956.6 | 3011.7 | 2956.9 | 1765.7 | 1749.7 |
| 1981 | 3135.9 | 3003.9 | 3135.9 | 3003.2 | 1801.4 | 1794.0 |
| 1982 | 3008.4 | 3051.9 | 3008.1 | 3050.3 | 1839.8 | 1839.3 |
| 1983 | 3228.5 | 3100.7 | 3228.0 | 3098.1 | 1877.8 | 1885.9 |
| 1984 | 3132.0 | 3150.2 | 3131.2 | 3146.6 | 1919.9 | 1933.6 |
| 1985 | 3238.2 | 3200.6 | 3237.0 | 3196.0 | 1945.5 | 1960.7 |
| 1986 | 3237.9 | 3251.7 | 3236.3 | 3246.1 | 1979.4 | 1988.2 |
| 1987 | 3375.3 | 3303.7 | 3373.3 | 3296.9 | 2028.1 | 2016.1 |
| 1988 | 3324.2 | 3356.5 | 3321.8 | 3348.6 | 2032.9 | 2044.4 |
| 1989 | 3327.1 | 3410.1 | 3324.2 | 3401.1 | 2106.4 | 2073.1 |
| 1990 | 3552.8 | 3689.6 | 3549.1 | 3680.7 | 2136.3 | 2102.2 |
| 1991 | 4032.2 | 3992.0 | 4027.4 | 3983.4 | 2150.5 | 2131.8 |
| 1992 | 4254.6 | 4319.1 | 4248.7 | 4310.9 | 2124.4 | 2161.7 |
| 1993 | 4220.3 | 4125.2 | 4213.4 | 4122.4 | 2183.9 | 2192.0 |
| 1994 | 3979.0 | 3940.0 | 3971.5 | 3942.1 | 2137.3 | 2155.1 |
| 1995 | 3664.5 | 3763.0 | 3656.5 | 3769.7 | 2122.2 | 2118.9 |
| 1996 | 3570.1 | 3708.1 | 3561.0 | 3708.1 | 2103.9 | 2083.2 |
| 1997 | 3762.3 | 3654.0 | 3751.2 | 3647.5 | 2045.2 | 2048.1 |
| 1998 | 3657.4 | 3600.7 | 3645.6 | 3588.0 | 1990.3 | 2013.7 |
| 1999 | 3605.0 | 3548.1 | 3589.7 | 3529.3 | 1981.8 | 1979.8 |
| 2000 | 3492.9 | 3496.3 | 3475.6 | 3471.7 | 1956.1 | 1946.5 |
| 2001 | 3433.6 | 3445.3 | 3413.8 | 3414.9 | 1928.5 | 1913.7 |
| 2002 | 3374.9 | 3395.0 | 3352.1 | 3359.1 | 1871.9 | 1865.5 |
| 2003 | 3292.5 | 3345.4 | 3266.4 | 3304.3 | 1798.5 | 1818.5 |
| 2004 | 3408.0 | 3296.6 | 3376.3 | 3250.3 | 1769.1 | 1772.7 |
| 2005 | 3103.7 | 3248.5 | 3069.5 | 3197.2 | 1727.8 | 1728.1 |
| 2006 | 3146.2 | 3201.1 | 3105.2 | 3144.9 | 1674.0 | 1684.5 |
| 2007 | 3188.1 | 3154.3 | 3138.7 | 3093.6 | 1659.9 | 1642.1 |
| 2008 | 3241.8 | 3108.3 | 3182.0 | 3043.0 | 1588.5 | 1600.8 |
| 2009 | 3047.6 | 3062.9 | 2980.4 | 2993.3 | 1551.5 | 1560.4 |
| 2010 | 2944.1 | 3018.2 | 2835.2 | 2944.4 | 1536.2 | 1521.1 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1383.0 | 1363.9 | 1383.0 | 1362.7 | 739.4 | 747.1 |
| 1976 | 1408.5 | 1389.3 | 1408.5 | 1388.3 | 759.4 | 754.9 |
| 1977 | 1415.0 | 1415.2 | 1415.0 | 1414.3 | 761.8 | 762.8 |
| 1978 | 1410.4 | 1441.5 | 1410.4 | 1440.9 | 769.6 | 770.7 |
| 1979 | 1454.9 | 1468.4 | 1454.9 | 1467.9 | 772.8 | 778.8 |
| 1980 | 1499.7 | 1495.7 | 1499.7 | 1495.5 | 789.5 | 786.9 |
| 1981 | 1532.4 | 1523.6 | 1532.4 | 1523.6 | 796.1 | 795.1 |
| 1982 | 1532.4 | 1551.9 | 1532.3 | 1552.2 | 805.4 | 803.4 |
| 1983 | 1564.1 | 1580.8 | 1563.9 | 1581.3 | 811.9 | 811.8 |
| 1984 | 1610.3 | 1610.3 | 1610.1 | 1611.0 | 826.2 | 820.3 |
| 1985 | 1661.3 | 1640.3 | 1661.0 | 1641.3 | 829.4 | 828.9 |
| 1986 | 1659.4 | 1670.8 | 1658.9 | 1672.1 | 840.4 | 837.6 |
| 1987 | 1724.1 | 1702.0 | 1723.5 | 1703.5 | 843.1 | 846.3 |
| 1988 | 1716.5 | 1733.7 | 1715.7 | 1712.9 | 852.4 | 855.1 |
| 1989 | 1724.8 | 1736.6 | 1724.0 | 1722.3 | 871.4 | 864.1 |
| 1990 | 1742.5 | 1739.5 | 1741.4 | 1731.9 | 876.5 | 873.1 |
| 1991 | 1773.9 | 1742.5 | 1772.6 | 1741.4 | 882.0 | 882.2 |
| 1992 | 1755.1 | 1745.4 | 1753.6 | 1751.0 | 888.7 | 891.4 |
| 1993 | 1738.5 | 1748.4 | 1736.9 | 1760.7 | 896.7 | 900.8 |
| 1994 | 1749.4 | 1751.3 | 1747.4 | 1770.5 | 900.6 | 899.2 |
| 1995 | 1753.2 | 1754.3 | 1750.9 | 1780.2 | 900.6 | 897.7 |
| 1996 | 1766.6 | 1783.0 | 1763.8 | 1790.1 | 895.2 | 896.2 |
| 1997 | 1818.6 | 1812.2 | 1815.3 | 1800.0 | 885.7 | 894.6 |
| 1998 | 1850.7 | 1841.9 | 1847.0 | 1809.9 | 886.2 | 893.1 |
| 1999 | 1823.1 | 1827.5 | 1818.2 | 1803.3 | 895.5 | 891.6 |
| 2000 | 1788.8 | 1813.3 | 1783.2 | 1796.7 | 899.6 | 890.1 |
| 2001 | 1820.0 | 1799.2 | 1813.1 | 1790.2 | 885.8 | 888.5 |
| 2002 | 1793.3 | 1785.1 | 1785.3 | 1783.7 | 885.6 | 887.0 |
| 2003 | 1759.6 | 1771.2 | 1750.3 | 1777.2 | 877.3 | 877.3 |
| 2004 | 1780.4 | 1772.1 | 1769.1 | 1770.7 | 866.1 | 867.7 |
| 2005 | 1762.7 | 1773.0 | 1749.4 | 1764.2 | 858.4 | 858.2 |
| 2006 | 1772.0 | 1773.9 | 1755.9 | 1757.8 | 851.7 | 848.8 |
| 2007 | 1773.4 | 1774.8 | 1753.9 | 1751.4 | 842.0 | 839.5 |
| 2008 | 1783.2 | 1775.7 | 1759.5 | 1745.0 | 831.9 | 830.3 |
| 2009 | 1793.3 | 1776.6 | 1764.3 | 1738.7 | 815.9 | 821.2 |
| 2010 | 1760.8 | 1777.5 | 1710.9 | 1732.3 | 813.0 | 812.2 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1340.8 | 1293.0 | 1340.8 | 1290.0 | 719.5 | 739.6 |
| 1976 | 1276.6 | 1313.3 | 1276.6 | 1310.6 | 765.5 | 752.3 |
| 1977 | 1348.0 | 1334.0 | 1348.0 | 1331.6 | 760.5 | 765.3 |
| 1978 | 1304.4 | 1354.9 | 1304.4 | 1353.0 | 774.3 | 778.5 |
| 1979 | 1350.3 | 1376.2 | 1350.3 | 1374.7 | 779.8 | 791.9 |
| 1980 | 1412.8 | 1397.8 | 1412.8 | 1396.7 | 818.1 | 805.5 |
| 1981 | 1417.4 | 1419.8 | 1417.4 | 1419.1 | 818.1 | 819.4 |
| 1982 | 1408.2 | 1442.1 | 1408.1 | 1441.8 | 836.4 | 833.5 |
| 1983 | 1504.8 | 1464.8 | 1504.6 | 1464.9 | 858.9 | 847.9 |
| 1984 | 1489.2 | 1487.8 | 1488.8 | 1488.4 | 866.8 | 862.5 |
| 1985 | 1529.4 | 1511.2 | 1528.9 | 1512.2 | 881.5 | 877.4 |
| 1986 | 1560.3 | 1534.9 | 1559.6 | 1536.5 | 896.8 | 892.5 |
| 1987 | 1569.3 | 1559.0 | 1568.5 | 1561.1 | 900.2 | 907.9 |
| 1988 | 1607.4 | 1583.5 | 1606.4 | 1586.1 | 924.0 | 923.5 |
| 1989 | 1526.6 | 1608.4 | 1525.4 | 1611.5 | 940.4 | 939.5 |
| 1990 | 1667.6 | 1633.7 | 1666.1 | 1637.4 | 954.6 | 955.7 |
| 1991 | 1665.5 | 1659.3 | 1663.7 | 1663.6 | 992.5 | 972.1 |
| 1992 | 1656.5 | 1664.1 | 1654.5 | 1666.4 | 970.9 | 988.9 |
| 1993 | 1609.2 | 1668.8 | 1606.9 | 1669.1 | 998.7 | 1005.9 |
| 1994 | 1646.8 | 1673.6 | 1644.1 | 1671.9 | 991.9 | 1002.2 |
| 1995 | 1654.4 | 1678.4 | 1651.2 | 1674.7 | 998.6 | 998.5 |
| 1996 | 1717.9 | 1683.2 | 1714.1 | 1677.4 | 994.3 | 994.8 |
| 1997 | 1699.3 | 1688.0 | 1694.9 | 1680.2 | 1007.7 | 991.1 |
| 1998 | 1700.3 | 1692.8 | 1695.5 | 1683.0 | 979.3 | 987.5 |
| 1999 | 1740.5 | 1697.7 | 1733.9 | 1685.8 | 996.8 | 983.8 |
| 2000 | 1657.8 | 1702.5 | 1650.5 | 1688.6 | 976.9 | 980.2 |
| 2001 | 1684.4 | 1707.4 | 1675.7 | 1691.4 | 974.0 | 976.6 |
| 2002 | 1794.4 | 1712.3 | 1783.5 | 1694.2 | 974.7 | 973.0 |
| 2003 | 1721.0 | 1717.2 | 1708.8 | 1697.0 | 961.2 | 957.1 |
| 2004 | 1719.9 | 1722.1 | 1705.4 | 1699.8 | 936.1 | 941.5 |
| 2005 | 1740.0 | 1727.0 | 1722.7 | 1702.6 | 918.0 | 926.2 |
| 2006 | 1729.8 | 1731.9 | 1709.4 | 1705.4 | 905.5 | 911.1 |
| 2007 | 1730.6 | 1736.9 | 1706.2 | 1708.3 | 903.1 | 896.2 |
| 2008 | 1764.6 | 1741.9 | 1734.8 | 1711.1 | 879.3 | 881.6 |
| 2009 | 1725.2 | 1746.8 | 1690.2 | 1713.9 | 865.3 | 867.2 |
| 2010 | 1709.0 | 1751.8 | 1650.2 | 1716.8 | 858.4 | 853.1 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 1999-10 | -1.0* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 1999-10 | -1.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 2001-10 | -1.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1995-10 | -1.5* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1995-10 | -1.6* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2001-10 | -2.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2003-10 | 0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 1998-10 | -0.4* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2002-10 | -1.1* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1991-10 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1991-10 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 2002-10 | -1.6* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.0.3, April 2013, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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