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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2010, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2010, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| 1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| 1977 | 39.4 | 39.9 | 39.4 | 39.9 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| 1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1981 | 40.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 39.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 1982 | 41.3 | 40.7 | 41.3 | 40.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| 1983 | 40.9 | 41.8 | 40.9 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| 1984 | 43.2 | 42.9 | 43.1 | 42.9 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 1985 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| 1986 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 46.6 | 46.4 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1988 | 45.1 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 46.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1989 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| 1990 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 1991 | 47.3 | 44.9 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| 1992 | 43.7 | 44.5 | 43.6 | 44.5 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| 1993 | 43.4 | 44.1 | 43.3 | 44.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| 1994 | 42.8 | 43.8 | 42.8 | 43.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| 1995 | 43.8 | 43.9 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1997 | 44.2 | 44.2 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| 1998 | 45.8 | 44.3 | 45.7 | 44.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 1999 | 45.2 | 44.4 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| 2001 | 45.0 | 44.7 | 44.8 | 44.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| 2002 | 43.7 | 44.8 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 44.3 | 44.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 2004 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 44.9 | 44.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 2005 | 44.7 | 45.2 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 2006 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 45.9 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 45.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 45.6 | 45.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 2009 | 46.2 | 45.8 | 45.7 | 45.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 2010 | 45.5 | 45.9 | 44.7 | 45.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 43.0 | 42.2 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| 1976 | 37.8 | 39.6 | 37.8 | 38.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| 1977 | 37.6 | 37.2 | 37.6 | 38.8 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| 1978 | 40.0 | 37.9 | 40.0 | 39.3 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 37.8 | 38.5 | 37.8 | 39.8 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 37.7 | 39.2 | 37.7 | 40.3 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| 1981 | 38.7 | 39.9 | 38.7 | 40.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| 1982 | 38.0 | 40.6 | 38.0 | 41.3 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| 1983 | 41.4 | 41.4 | 41.4 | 41.8 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| 1984 | 44.7 | 42.1 | 44.7 | 42.4 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| 1985 | 45.6 | 42.9 | 45.5 | 42.9 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1986 | 45.7 | 43.6 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 1987 | 43.2 | 44.4 | 43.1 | 44.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| 1988 | 42.8 | 45.2 | 42.8 | 44.5 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| 1989 | 42.2 | 46.0 | 42.2 | 45.1 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 1990 | 49.0 | 46.8 | 48.9 | 45.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1991 | 51.0 | 46.7 | 50.9 | 46.3 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| 1992 | 47.2 | 46.6 | 47.0 | 46.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 1993 | 45.2 | 46.4 | 45.1 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| 1994 | 47.7 | 46.3 | 47.5 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| 1995 | 45.6 | 46.2 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 11.7 | 11.5 |
| 1996 | 44.4 | 46.1 | 44.3 | 45.6 | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| 1997 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 44.3 | 45.4 | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| 1998 | 46.8 | 45.8 | 46.6 | 45.3 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| 1999 | 44.0 | 45.7 | 43.8 | 45.2 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| 2000 | 44.9 | 45.5 | 44.6 | 45.0 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| 2001 | 40.0 | 45.4 | 39.8 | 44.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| 2002 | 41.4 | 45.3 | 41.1 | 44.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| 2003 | 43.5 | 45.2 | 43.2 | 44.7 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 47.9 | 45.0 | 47.5 | 44.5 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 45.5 | 44.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| 2006 | 45.5 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 45.4 | 44.7 | 44.9 | 44.1 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| 2008 | 45.2 | 44.6 | 44.6 | 44.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 2009 | 46.2 | 44.4 | 45.5 | 43.9 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| 2010 | 44.6 | 44.3 | 43.5 | 43.7 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 281.9 | 271.6 | 281.9 | 271.3 | 91.4 | 92.4 |
| 1976 | 272.3 | 274.0 | 272.3 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.8 |
| 1977 | 271.1 | 276.5 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.3 |
| 1978 | 272.1 | 279.0 | 272.1 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.7 |
| 1979 | 277.9 | 281.5 | 277.9 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
| 1980 | 280.2 | 284.0 | 280.2 | 284.0 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
| 1981 | 292.7 | 286.6 | 292.7 | 286.6 | 94.8 | 95.0 |
| 1982 | 289.9 | 289.1 | 289.9 | 289.2 | 95.5 | 95.5 |
| 1983 | 307.3 | 305.2 | 307.2 | 305.1 | 95.8 | 95.9 |
| 1984 | 321.1 | 322.2 | 321.1 | 321.9 | 97.5 | 96.4 |
| 1985 | 346.4 | 340.1 | 346.3 | 339.6 | 98.1 | 96.8 |
| 1986 | 353.6 | 359.0 | 353.5 | 358.3 | 97.5 | 97.3 |
| 1987 | 386.1 | 379.0 | 385.9 | 378.1 | 96.9 | 97.7 |
| 1988 | 375.6 | 377.5 | 375.4 | 377.0 | 98.8 | 98.2 |
| 1989 | 362.9 | 376.1 | 362.6 | 376.0 | 99.2 | 98.7 |
| 1990 | 374.6 | 374.6 | 374.2 | 374.9 | 98.5 | 99.1 |
| 1991 | 379.4 | 373.2 | 378.9 | 373.9 | 97.2 | 97.1 |
| 1992 | 377.5 | 371.7 | 377.1 | 372.9 | 94.5 | 95.1 |
| 1993 | 369.0 | 370.3 | 368.5 | 371.9 | 94.2 | 93.2 |
| 1994 | 379.6 | 377.9 | 379.0 | 378.0 | 92.5 | 91.3 |
| 1995 | 384.2 | 385.7 | 383.6 | 384.3 | 91.1 | 89.4 |
| 1996 | 385.4 | 393.6 | 384.7 | 390.7 | 88.3 | 87.6 |
| 1997 | 401.8 | 401.8 | 401.0 | 397.2 | 83.6 | 85.8 |
| 1998 | 412.2 | 410.0 | 411.3 | 403.8 | 82.5 | 84.0 |
| 1999 | 415.3 | 418.5 | 414.2 | 410.5 | 80.4 | 82.3 |
| 2000 | 403.4 | 407.5 | 402.2 | 417.3 | 80.6 | 80.6 |
| 2001 | 408.2 | 396.9 | 406.9 | 401.6 | 78.0 | 79.0 |
| 2002 | 398.5 | 386.5 | 397.1 | 386.5 | 77.3 | 77.3 |
| 2003 | 362.3 | 376.3 | 360.8 | 371.9 | 75.9 | 75.8 |
| 2004 | 362.0 | 366.5 | 360.4 | 357.9 | 74.4 | 74.2 |
| 2005 | 360.4 | 356.9 | 358.7 | 357.7 | 72.8 | 72.7 |
| 2006 | 354.9 | 358.0 | 352.9 | 357.5 | 71.3 | 71.2 |
| 2007 | 360.7 | 359.0 | 358.5 | 357.2 | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| 2008 | 358.0 | 360.1 | 355.3 | 357.0 | 68.2 | 68.3 |
| 2009 | 367.6 | 361.2 | 363.9 | 356.8 | 67.0 | 66.9 |
| 2010 | 358.1 | 362.3 | 352.4 | 356.6 | 66.5 | 65.5 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 226.1 | 207.4 | 226.1 | 206.6 | 78.8 | 81.7 |
| 1976 | 209.8 | 212.9 | 209.8 | 212.0 | 83.5 | 83.0 |
| 1977 | 216.4 | 218.5 | 216.4 | 217.6 | 91.1 | 84.3 |
| 1978 | 206.1 | 224.2 | 206.1 | 223.3 | 86.5 | 85.6 |
| 1979 | 215.3 | 230.1 | 215.3 | 229.2 | 81.8 | 87.0 |
| 1980 | 224.8 | 236.1 | 224.8 | 235.2 | 86.3 | 88.3 |
| 1981 | 239.6 | 242.3 | 239.6 | 241.4 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
| 1982 | 238.7 | 248.6 | 238.7 | 247.7 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
| 1983 | 266.6 | 255.2 | 266.5 | 254.3 | 92.1 | 92.6 |
| 1984 | 254.0 | 261.9 | 253.8 | 260.9 | 97.2 | 94.1 |
| 1985 | 285.3 | 268.7 | 285.0 | 267.8 | 94.6 | 95.6 |
| 1986 | 296.8 | 275.8 | 296.5 | 274.9 | 94.6 | 97.1 |
| 1987 | 283.5 | 283.0 | 283.1 | 282.1 | 99.0 | 98.6 |
| 1988 | 317.7 | 290.4 | 317.3 | 289.5 | 103.4 | 100.2 |
| 1989 | 269.8 | 298.0 | 269.3 | 297.1 | 100.0 | 101.8 |
| 1990 | 301.9 | 305.8 | 301.2 | 304.9 | 106.1 | 103.4 |
| 1991 | 292.1 | 313.9 | 291.4 | 313.0 | 106.3 | 105.0 |
| 1992 | 326.4 | 322.1 | 325.6 | 321.2 | 102.7 | 106.7 |
| 1993 | 314.8 | 323.0 | 313.9 | 321.8 | 107.1 | 108.4 |
| 1994 | 319.9 | 323.9 | 318.9 | 322.5 | 105.9 | 107.1 |
| 1995 | 329.8 | 324.8 | 328.6 | 323.1 | 107.5 | 105.7 |
| 1996 | 335.3 | 325.7 | 334.0 | 323.8 | 103.6 | 104.5 |
| 1997 | 337.8 | 326.6 | 336.5 | 324.4 | 106.6 | 103.2 |
| 1998 | 328.0 | 327.5 | 326.6 | 325.1 | 100.7 | 101.9 |
| 1999 | 341.2 | 328.4 | 339.4 | 325.7 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
| 2000 | 309.0 | 329.3 | 307.2 | 326.4 | 98.3 | 99.4 |
| 2001 | 314.9 | 330.2 | 313.0 | 327.0 | 99.1 | 98.2 |
| 2002 | 339.5 | 331.1 | 337.2 | 327.7 | 97.3 | 97.0 |
| 2003 | 336.1 | 332.0 | 333.6 | 328.4 | 98.2 | 95.8 |
| 2004 | 326.6 | 332.9 | 324.0 | 329.0 | 92.6 | 94.6 |
| 2005 | 311.4 | 333.9 | 308.6 | 329.7 | 93.9 | 93.5 |
| 2006 | 335.0 | 334.8 | 331.7 | 330.3 | 91.2 | 92.3 |
| 2007 | 334.8 | 335.7 | 331.1 | 331.0 | 91.1 | 91.2 |
| 2008 | 348.1 | 336.6 | 343.4 | 331.7 | 90.5 | 90.1 |
| 2009 | 350.4 | 337.6 | 344.4 | 332.3 | 88.4 | 89.0 |
| 2010 | 330.9 | 338.5 | 322.4 | 333.0 | 88.2 | 87.9 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-10 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-10 | 0.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 1999-10 | -2.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1990-10 | -0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-10 | -0.3 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1996-10 | -2.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2005-10 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-10 | -0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1990-10 | -2.0* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-10 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-10 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-10 | -1.2* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.0.3, April 2013, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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