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Figure 16.1
Figure 16.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Melanoma of the Skin, White, by Sex
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 1976 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 1978 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 1979 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 1980 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| 1981 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| 1982 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 1983 | 14.4 | 14.9 | 14.4 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 1984 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| 1985 | 17.3 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| 1986 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 1987 | 18.2 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 17.4 | 18.9 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 1989 | 19.0 | 19.5 | 18.9 | 19.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 1990 | 19.4 | 20.1 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1991 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 20.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1992 | 21.3 | 21.4 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1993 | 21.1 | 22.1 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1994 | 23.3 | 22.8 | 23.2 | 22.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1995 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1996 | 25.5 | 24.3 | 25.4 | 24.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 1997 | 25.4 | 25.1 | 25.2 | 24.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 1998 | 26.3 | 25.9 | 26.2 | 25.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 1999 | 27.2 | 26.7 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2000 | 28.5 | 27.6 | 28.3 | 27.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2001 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.3 | 28.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 2002 | 28.7 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2003 | 29.1 | 30.3 | 28.9 | 30.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 2004 | 31.1 | 31.3 | 30.8 | 30.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2005 | 34.4 | 32.3 | 34.1 | 31.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2006 | 33.7 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 32.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 33.6 | 34.4 | 33.2 | 33.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 35.4 | 35.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | 35.7 | 36.6 | 35.0 | 36.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| 2010 | 36.5 | 37.8 | 35.4 | 37.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 1976 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1977 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1978 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1979 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 1980 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1981 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 1982 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1983 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1984 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 1985 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1986 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1987 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 1988 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1989 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1990 | 14.0 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 1991 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 1992 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1994 | 14.9 | 16.1 | 14.9 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 1995 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1996 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 1997 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 17.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 17.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1999 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2000 | 19.2 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2001 | 20.3 | 19.6 | 20.1 | 19.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2002 | 20.1 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2003 | 20.4 | 20.7 | 20.2 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2004 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.4 | 21.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2005 | 23.4 | 21.9 | 23.1 | 22.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 2006 | 23.0 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 22.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2007 | 22.6 | 23.2 | 22.3 | 23.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 2008 | 24.1 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 23.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 2010 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Male | 1986-10 | 3.2* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Male | 1986-10 | 3.1* |
| U.S. Mortality, Male | 2002-10 | 1.0* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Female | 1980-10 | 2.8* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Female | 2005-10 | 1.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Female | 1986-10 | -0.3* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.0.3, April 2013, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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