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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2010, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2010, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2010, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.1 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 19.0 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.7 | 21.1 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.4 | 22.3 | 20.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 28.9 | 30.7 | 28.9 | 30.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1991 | 39.3 | 37.7 | 39.3 | 37.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1992 | 49.4 | 46.3 | 49.4 | 46.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 49.1 | 47.8 | 49.0 | 47.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1994 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 46.8 | 49.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1995 | 48.2 | 51.0 | 48.2 | 50.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1996 | 52.1 | 52.7 | 52.0 | 52.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.2 | 54.4 | 54.0 | 53.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.2 | 56.2 | 53.1 | 55.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 59.0 | 58.1 | 58.8 | 57.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2000 | 60.2 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 58.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 62.9 | 61.9 | 62.6 | 60.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 64.3 | 61.7 | 63.9 | 62.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 60.2 | 61.6 | 59.8 | 61.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.8 | 61.4 | 60.3 | 61.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 55.9 | 61.2 | 55.3 | 60.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 63.2 | 61.0 | 62.4 | 60.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.7 | 60.8 | 63.6 | 59.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.9 | 60.6 | 59.7 | 59.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 61.0 | 60.4 | 59.5 | 58.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 57.3 | 60.2 | 55.1 | 57.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 26.8 | 28.0 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.7 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.8 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.4 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 31.0 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.5 | 31.7 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.3 | 32.3 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.9 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.1 | 33.6 | 37.1 | 33.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.4 | 34.2 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.9 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 35.9 | 35.6 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| 1988 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 34.9 | 36.2 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1989 | 37.3 | 37.0 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.8 | 46.7 | 44.7 | 46.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| 1991 | 57.4 | 58.9 | 57.3 | 58.7 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| 1992 | 78.2 | 74.2 | 78.1 | 74.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| 1993 | 94.4 | 93.6 | 94.3 | 93.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 96.1 | 96.1 | 95.9 | 95.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 99.4 | 98.7 | 99.1 | 98.4 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 100.9 | 101.4 | 100.6 | 101.0 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 97.9 | 104.1 | 97.4 | 103.7 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| 1998 | 104.0 | 106.9 | 103.5 | 106.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| 1999 | 112.9 | 109.8 | 112.2 | 109.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 2000 | 115.2 | 112.8 | 114.3 | 112.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| 2001 | 115.4 | 115.9 | 114.5 | 115.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2002 | 118.7 | 115.3 | 117.5 | 114.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 117.5 | 114.8 | 116.1 | 113.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| 2004 | 107.4 | 114.2 | 105.8 | 112.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2005 | 107.7 | 113.7 | 105.9 | 111.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 2006 | 110.3 | 113.1 | 108.1 | 110.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 120.7 | 112.6 | 117.8 | 109.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 112.9 | 112.0 | 109.7 | 108.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2009 | 112.7 | 111.5 | 108.7 | 107.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010 | 108.2 | 111.0 | 102.4 | 106.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.4 | 630.6 | 639.4 | 631.3 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 673.8 | 647.9 | 673.8 | 648.3 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.7 | 665.6 | 680.7 | 665.8 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 702.6 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.1 | 721.8 | 729.1 | 721.3 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.4 | 741.5 | 743.4 | 740.7 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.3 | 761.8 | 740.3 | 760.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.3 | 782.7 | 762.2 | 781.3 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.4 | 804.1 | 759.2 | 802.4 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 785.7 | 826.1 | 785.5 | 824.1 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.7 | 848.7 | 815.4 | 846.3 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.6 | 871.9 | 919.2 | 869.2 | 241.3 | 239.8 |
| 1988 | 944.5 | 895.8 | 943.9 | 892.7 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 991.3 | 1029.9 | 990.6 | 1026.0 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1168.6 | 1184.1 | 1167.6 | 1179.2 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1442.8 | 1361.4 | 1441.3 | 1355.3 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1546.7 | 1565.2 | 1544.8 | 1557.8 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1281.0 | 1314.0 | 1279.1 | 1310.3 | 270.8 | 269.4 |
| 1994 | 1056.5 | 1103.1 | 1054.7 | 1102.1 | 266.0 | 268.1 |
| 1995 | 969.1 | 926.1 | 967.1 | 927.0 | 256.9 | 256.3 |
| 1996 | 949.4 | 944.6 | 947.3 | 944.8 | 246.4 | 245.1 |
| 1997 | 973.7 | 963.6 | 970.7 | 963.0 | 234.6 | 234.3 |
| 1998 | 960.4 | 982.9 | 957.0 | 981.6 | 223.4 | 224.0 |
| 1999 | 1014.8 | 1002.7 | 1010.0 | 1000.5 | 216.9 | 216.3 |
| 2000 | 1011.1 | 1022.8 | 1005.5 | 1019.7 | 208.3 | 208.8 |
| 2001 | 1019.7 | 994.7 | 1012.9 | 988.5 | 202.1 | 201.6 |
| 2002 | 988.4 | 967.5 | 980.6 | 958.1 | 197.5 | 194.7 |
| 2003 | 910.0 | 940.9 | 901.4 | 928.8 | 187.0 | 187.9 |
| 2004 | 875.7 | 915.1 | 865.9 | 900.3 | 179.5 | 181.4 |
| 2005 | 830.5 | 890.1 | 819.2 | 872.7 | 174.2 | 175.2 |
| 2006 | 907.5 | 865.7 | 892.7 | 845.9 | 165.8 | 169.1 |
| 2007 | 914.2 | 841.9 | 896.2 | 819.9 | 165.6 | 163.3 |
| 2008 | 806.9 | 818.8 | 787.5 | 794.8 | 158.3 | 157.6 |
| 2009 | 785.3 | 796.4 | 762.5 | 770.4 | 151.1 | 152.2 |
| 2010 | 751.4 | 774.6 | 716.9 | 746.8 | 148.6 | 146.9 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 931.2 | 951.2 | 931.2 | 948.9 | 394.0 | 386.2 |
| 1976 | 907.3 | 970.6 | 907.3 | 968.2 | 392.2 | 395.2 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 990.3 | 1057.2 | 987.9 | 398.7 | 404.4 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1010.5 | 986.4 | 1008.0 | 416.1 | 413.8 |
| 1979 | 1102.1 | 1031.1 | 1102.1 | 1028.5 | 422.9 | 423.4 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1052.1 | 1041.4 | 1049.4 | 445.0 | 433.3 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1073.6 | 1041.9 | 1070.7 | 454.4 | 443.4 |
| 1982 | 1110.0 | 1095.5 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 447.7 | 453.7 |
| 1983 | 1117.2 | 1117.8 | 1116.9 | 1114.7 | 462.5 | 464.3 |
| 1984 | 1158.6 | 1140.6 | 1158.1 | 1137.4 | 475.1 | 475.1 |
| 1985 | 1128.3 | 1163.8 | 1127.7 | 1160.5 | 482.7 | 486.1 |
| 1986 | 1099.2 | 1187.6 | 1098.3 | 1184.1 | 487.4 | 497.5 |
| 1987 | 1251.0 | 1211.8 | 1249.8 | 1208.2 | 499.0 | 509.1 |
| 1988 | 1265.3 | 1236.5 | 1263.8 | 1232.8 | 502.3 | 520.9 |
| 1989 | 1264.0 | 1261.7 | 1262.2 | 1257.9 | 518.5 | 533.0 |
| 1990 | 1453.5 | 1512.8 | 1450.9 | 1508.2 | 565.6 | 545.4 |
| 1991 | 1891.7 | 1813.9 | 1888.1 | 1808.4 | 570.2 | 558.1 |
| 1992 | 2065.6 | 2174.9 | 2060.9 | 2168.3 | 578.7 | 571.1 |
| 1993 | 2081.0 | 1985.1 | 2075.5 | 1982.5 | 599.1 | 584.4 |
| 1994 | 1830.9 | 1811.9 | 1825.2 | 1812.6 | 585.9 | 598.1 |
| 1995 | 1559.4 | 1653.8 | 1553.8 | 1657.2 | 572.5 | 581.4 |
| 1996 | 1553.9 | 1615.8 | 1547.9 | 1614.1 | 579.2 | 565.2 |
| 1997 | 1595.5 | 1578.7 | 1586.9 | 1572.1 | 544.2 | 549.4 |
| 1998 | 1576.6 | 1542.4 | 1567.2 | 1531.2 | 532.4 | 534.1 |
| 1999 | 1542.7 | 1507.0 | 1530.6 | 1491.3 | 514.8 | 519.2 |
| 2000 | 1533.7 | 1472.4 | 1519.6 | 1452.5 | 507.8 | 504.7 |
| 2001 | 1400.0 | 1438.6 | 1384.9 | 1414.7 | 499.7 | 490.6 |
| 2002 | 1488.3 | 1405.5 | 1469.5 | 1377.9 | 477.8 | 471.7 |
| 2003 | 1278.2 | 1373.2 | 1259.2 | 1342.0 | 441.0 | 453.4 |
| 2004 | 1328.8 | 1341.7 | 1305.7 | 1307.1 | 433.7 | 435.9 |
| 2005 | 1261.0 | 1310.9 | 1235.1 | 1273.1 | 417.8 | 419.1 |
| 2006 | 1268.3 | 1280.7 | 1237.5 | 1239.9 | 393.5 | 402.9 |
| 2007 | 1299.9 | 1251.3 | 1262.4 | 1207.7 | 403.0 | 387.3 |
| 2008 | 1256.0 | 1222.6 | 1212.9 | 1176.2 | 357.6 | 372.4 |
| 2009 | 1190.5 | 1194.5 | 1141.9 | 1145.6 | 359.7 | 358.0 |
| 2010 | 1120.2 | 1167.1 | 1051.2 | 1115.8 | 350.8 | 344.2 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2001-10 | -0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2002-10 | -0.9 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2000-10 | -1.1* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-10 | -0.5 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2001-10 | -0.9 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 2007-10 | -0.6 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-10 | -2.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2000-10 | -3.1* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 1998-10 | -3.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-10 | -2.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 1995-10 | -2.6* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2001-10 | -3.9* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.0.3, April 2013, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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