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Figure 4.1
Figure 4.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Race
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 107.4 | 105.9 | 107.4 | 105.9 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| 1976 | 104.8 | 105.4 | 104.8 | 105.4 | 32.2 | 31.9 |
| 1977 | 103.4 | 104.9 | 103.4 | 104.9 | 32.7 | 32.0 |
| 1978 | 103.7 | 104.4 | 103.7 | 104.4 | 31.9 | 32.1 |
| 1979 | 104.8 | 103.9 | 104.8 | 103.9 | 31.5 | 32.2 |
| 1980 | 105.1 | 103.5 | 105.1 | 103.5 | 31.9 | 32.2 |
| 1981 | 110.0 | 107.7 | 110.0 | 107.7 | 32.1 | 32.3 |
| 1982 | 110.0 | 112.1 | 110.0 | 112.1 | 32.3 | 32.4 |
| 1983 | 114.5 | 116.7 | 114.5 | 116.7 | 32.2 | 32.5 |
| 1984 | 120.0 | 121.5 | 119.9 | 121.4 | 32.9 | 32.6 |
| 1985 | 127.9 | 126.4 | 127.8 | 126.4 | 33.1 | 32.7 |
| 1986 | 130.5 | 131.6 | 130.4 | 131.6 | 32.9 | 32.7 |
| 1987 | 140.3 | 137.0 | 140.3 | 136.9 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| 1988 | 136.4 | 136.7 | 136.3 | 136.6 | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| 1989 | 132.5 | 136.4 | 132.4 | 136.3 | 33.2 | 33.0 |
| 1990 | 136.4 | 136.1 | 136.3 | 136.0 | 33.0 | 33.1 |
| 1991 | 139.0 | 135.8 | 138.9 | 135.6 | 32.4 | 32.4 |
| 1992 | 135.9 | 135.4 | 135.8 | 135.3 | 31.4 | 31.8 |
| 1993 | 133.3 | 135.1 | 133.2 | 135.0 | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| 1994 | 135.8 | 134.8 | 135.7 | 134.7 | 30.6 | 30.5 |
| 1995 | 137.9 | 137.5 | 137.7 | 137.4 | 30.1 | 29.9 |
| 1996 | 138.4 | 140.3 | 138.2 | 140.1 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| 1997 | 143.0 | 143.1 | 142.8 | 142.8 | 27.6 | 27.9 |
| 1998 | 147.0 | 145.9 | 146.8 | 145.7 | 27.0 | 26.9 |
| 1999 | 147.4 | 148.8 | 147.1 | 148.5 | 26.0 | 26.4 |
| 2000 | 143.3 | 145.3 | 143.0 | 145.0 | 26.2 | 25.9 |
| 2001 | 145.3 | 141.9 | 145.0 | 141.5 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| 2002 | 141.7 | 138.5 | 141.3 | 138.2 | 25.0 | 24.9 |
| 2003 | 132.2 | 135.2 | 131.8 | 134.9 | 24.7 | 24.4 |
| 2004 | 132.6 | 132.0 | 132.1 | 131.7 | 23.9 | 23.9 |
| 2005 | 132.0 | 132.3 | 131.4 | 131.7 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| 2006 | 131.0 | 132.5 | 130.3 | 131.8 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| 2007 | 133.1 | 132.7 | 132.3 | 131.8 | 22.4 | 22.6 |
| 2008 | 132.1 | 132.9 | 131.2 | 131.9 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
| 2009 | 135.0 | 133.1 | 134.0 | 131.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
| 2010 | 131.4 | 133.3 | 130.2 | 132.0 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| 2011 | 134.5 | 133.5 | 132.6 | 132.0 | 20.9 | 20.9 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 93.6 | 84.1 | 93.6 | 84.7 | 29.5 | 30.2 |
| 1976 | 85.6 | 86.0 | 85.6 | 86.5 | 30.5 | 30.7 |
| 1977 | 86.8 | 88.0 | 86.8 | 88.4 | 32.8 | 31.1 |
| 1978 | 86.0 | 90.0 | 86.0 | 90.3 | 32.1 | 31.6 |
| 1979 | 86.8 | 92.1 | 86.8 | 92.2 | 30.8 | 32.1 |
| 1980 | 89.5 | 94.2 | 89.5 | 94.2 | 31.7 | 32.6 |
| 1981 | 94.2 | 96.3 | 94.2 | 96.3 | 32.6 | 33.0 |
| 1982 | 93.5 | 98.5 | 93.5 | 98.4 | 33.7 | 33.5 |
| 1983 | 103.7 | 100.8 | 103.7 | 100.5 | 33.5 | 34.0 |
| 1984 | 102.3 | 103.1 | 102.3 | 102.7 | 35.9 | 34.6 |
| 1985 | 111.8 | 105.4 | 111.7 | 104.9 | 34.9 | 35.1 |
| 1986 | 115.1 | 107.8 | 115.0 | 107.2 | 35.4 | 35.6 |
| 1987 | 109.5 | 110.3 | 109.4 | 109.5 | 36.7 | 36.2 |
| 1988 | 118.8 | 112.8 | 118.6 | 111.9 | 37.8 | 36.7 |
| 1989 | 105.2 | 115.4 | 105.1 | 114.3 | 36.6 | 37.3 |
| 1990 | 118.9 | 118.0 | 118.8 | 116.8 | 38.0 | 37.8 |
| 1991 | 117.6 | 120.7 | 117.4 | 119.3 | 38.3 | 38.4 |
| 1992 | 124.3 | 121.0 | 124.0 | 121.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 |
| 1993 | 119.7 | 121.3 | 119.4 | 122.0 | 38.0 | 38.4 |
| 1994 | 122.9 | 121.6 | 122.6 | 122.2 | 37.7 | 37.9 |
| 1995 | 123.8 | 121.9 | 123.4 | 122.3 | 38.2 | 37.3 |
| 1996 | 124.6 | 122.3 | 124.3 | 122.5 | 37.1 | 36.8 |
| 1997 | 125.5 | 122.6 | 125.1 | 122.6 | 37.4 | 36.3 |
| 1998 | 124.7 | 122.9 | 124.2 | 122.8 | 35.5 | 35.8 |
| 1999 | 126.1 | 123.2 | 125.5 | 122.9 | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| 2000 | 118.2 | 123.5 | 117.7 | 123.1 | 34.4 | 34.8 |
| 2001 | 116.0 | 123.8 | 115.4 | 123.2 | 34.5 | 34.3 |
| 2002 | 123.8 | 124.1 | 123.1 | 123.4 | 34.1 | 33.8 |
| 2003 | 124.3 | 124.5 | 123.5 | 123.5 | 34.1 | 33.4 |
| 2004 | 124.8 | 124.8 | 123.9 | 123.6 | 32.3 | 32.9 |
| 2005 | 119.2 | 125.1 | 118.2 | 123.8 | 32.8 | 32.4 |
| 2006 | 125.8 | 125.4 | 124.6 | 123.9 | 31.6 | 32.0 |
| 2007 | 125.4 | 125.7 | 124.1 | 124.1 | 31.4 | 31.5 |
| 2008 | 129.1 | 126.1 | 127.6 | 124.2 | 31.0 | 31.1 |
| 2009 | 130.2 | 126.4 | 128.4 | 124.4 | 30.2 | 30.7 |
| 2010 | 123.6 | 126.7 | 121.6 | 124.5 | 30.2 | 30.2 |
| 2011 | 129.8 | 127.0 | 126.7 | 124.7 | 30.2 | 29.8 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White | 2004-11 | 0.2 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White | 2004-11 | 0.0 |
| U.S. Mortality, White | 1998-11 | -1.9* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black | 1991-11 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black | 1992-11 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black | 1992-11 | -1.4* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.1.0, April 2014, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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