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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2010, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2010, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2010, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| 1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| 1977 | 39.4 | 39.9 | 39.4 | 39.9 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| 1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 38.7 | 39.0 | 38.7 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1981 | 40.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 39.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 1982 | 41.3 | 40.7 | 41.3 | 40.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| 1983 | 40.9 | 41.8 | 40.9 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| 1984 | 43.2 | 42.9 | 43.2 | 42.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 1985 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| 1986 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 46.5 | 46.4 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1988 | 45.1 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1989 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| 1990 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 1991 | 47.3 | 44.9 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| 1992 | 43.7 | 44.5 | 43.6 | 44.5 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| 1993 | 43.4 | 44.1 | 43.3 | 44.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| 1994 | 42.8 | 43.8 | 42.8 | 43.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| 1995 | 43.8 | 43.9 | 43.8 | 43.9 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1997 | 44.2 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| 1998 | 45.8 | 44.3 | 45.7 | 44.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 1999 | 45.2 | 44.4 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| 2001 | 45.0 | 44.6 | 44.8 | 44.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| 2002 | 43.7 | 44.8 | 43.6 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | 44.4 | 44.9 | 44.3 | 44.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 2004 | 45.1 | 45.0 | 44.9 | 44.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 2005 | 44.7 | 45.2 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 2006 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 45.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 46.0 | 45.4 | 45.7 | 45.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 2009 | 46.2 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 2010 | 45.3 | 45.8 | 44.9 | 45.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 2011 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 45.1 | 45.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 43.0 | 37.3 | 43.0 | 37.3 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| 1976 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| 1977 | 37.6 | 38.4 | 37.6 | 38.4 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| 1978 | 40.0 | 39.0 | 40.0 | 39.0 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 37.8 | 39.6 | 37.8 | 39.6 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 37.7 | 40.2 | 37.7 | 40.2 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| 1981 | 38.7 | 40.8 | 38.7 | 40.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| 1982 | 38.0 | 41.5 | 38.0 | 41.5 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| 1983 | 41.5 | 42.1 | 41.5 | 42.1 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| 1984 | 44.7 | 42.8 | 44.7 | 42.7 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| 1985 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 45.5 | 43.4 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1986 | 45.7 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 44.1 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 1987 | 43.2 | 44.8 | 43.1 | 44.7 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| 1988 | 42.8 | 45.5 | 42.8 | 45.4 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| 1989 | 42.3 | 46.2 | 42.2 | 46.1 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 1990 | 49.0 | 46.9 | 48.9 | 46.8 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1991 | 51.0 | 47.6 | 50.9 | 47.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| 1992 | 47.1 | 47.2 | 47.0 | 47.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 1993 | 45.2 | 46.7 | 45.1 | 46.6 | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| 1994 | 47.7 | 46.2 | 47.5 | 46.1 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| 1995 | 45.6 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.6 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| 1996 | 44.4 | 45.3 | 44.3 | 45.2 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| 1997 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 44.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| 1998 | 46.7 | 44.4 | 46.6 | 44.3 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| 1999 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| 2000 | 44.9 | 43.5 | 44.7 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| 2001 | 40.0 | 43.1 | 39.8 | 42.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| 2002 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 41.2 | 43.3 | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2003 | 43.5 | 43.9 | 43.2 | 43.6 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 47.9 | 44.4 | 47.6 | 44.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 46.0 | 44.8 | 45.6 | 44.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| 2006 | 45.6 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 44.7 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 45.4 | 45.7 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| 2008 | 45.2 | 46.1 | 44.7 | 45.5 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 2009 | 45.9 | 46.6 | 45.3 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| 2010 | 44.9 | 47.0 | 44.2 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 2011 | 49.2 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 46.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 282.0 | 271.4 | 282.0 | 271.3 | 91.4 | 92.2 |
| 1976 | 272.3 | 273.8 | 272.3 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 |
| 1977 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 |
| 1978 | 272.1 | 278.8 | 272.1 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.6 |
| 1979 | 277.9 | 281.3 | 277.9 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
| 1980 | 280.2 | 283.9 | 280.2 | 284.0 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
| 1981 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 292.7 | 286.6 | 94.8 | 95.1 |
| 1982 | 289.9 | 289.1 | 289.9 | 289.2 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
| 1983 | 307.2 | 305.1 | 307.2 | 305.1 | 95.8 | 96.1 |
| 1984 | 321.1 | 322.1 | 321.0 | 321.9 | 97.5 | 96.6 |
| 1985 | 346.3 | 339.9 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 98.1 | 97.1 |
| 1986 | 353.5 | 358.8 | 353.3 | 358.3 | 97.5 | 97.6 |
| 1987 | 386.0 | 378.7 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 96.9 | 98.1 |
| 1988 | 375.5 | 377.3 | 375.4 | 377.0 | 98.8 | 98.6 |
| 1989 | 362.7 | 375.9 | 362.5 | 375.9 | 99.2 | 99.1 |
| 1990 | 374.6 | 374.4 | 374.3 | 374.9 | 98.5 | 97.9 |
| 1991 | 379.3 | 373.0 | 379.0 | 373.9 | 97.2 | 96.7 |
| 1992 | 377.4 | 371.6 | 377.1 | 372.9 | 94.5 | 95.5 |
| 1993 | 368.9 | 370.2 | 368.6 | 371.9 | 94.2 | 94.3 |
| 1994 | 379.4 | 377.8 | 379.0 | 378.1 | 92.5 | 93.1 |
| 1995 | 384.2 | 385.6 | 383.7 | 384.4 | 91.1 | 90.1 |
| 1996 | 385.3 | 393.5 | 384.8 | 390.8 | 88.3 | 87.2 |
| 1997 | 401.7 | 401.6 | 401.1 | 397.3 | 83.6 | 84.4 |
| 1998 | 412.0 | 409.9 | 411.3 | 403.9 | 82.5 | 82.9 |
| 1999 | 415.1 | 418.4 | 414.3 | 410.7 | 80.4 | 81.3 |
| 2000 | 403.2 | 407.3 | 402.2 | 417.5 | 80.6 | 79.8 |
| 2001 | 408.2 | 396.6 | 407.1 | 401.6 | 78.0 | 78.3 |
| 2002 | 398.5 | 386.1 | 397.3 | 386.4 | 77.3 | 76.9 |
| 2003 | 362.2 | 376.0 | 360.9 | 371.7 | 75.9 | 75.5 |
| 2004 | 361.9 | 366.1 | 360.5 | 357.5 | 74.4 | 74.1 |
| 2005 | 360.6 | 356.4 | 359.0 | 357.8 | 72.8 | 72.7 |
| 2006 | 355.3 | 357.8 | 353.5 | 358.0 | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| 2007 | 361.2 | 359.1 | 359.1 | 358.3 | 69.9 | 70.0 |
| 2008 | 358.0 | 360.5 | 355.6 | 358.6 | 68.2 | 68.7 |
| 2009 | 367.7 | 361.9 | 364.9 | 358.8 | 67.0 | 67.5 |
| 2010 | 357.0 | 363.3 | 353.8 | 359.1 | 66.5 | 66.2 |
| 2011 | 367.0 | 364.7 | 361.7 | 359.3 | 65.2 | 65.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 226.1 | 206.7 | 226.1 | 206.6 | 78.8 | 81.7 |
| 1976 | 210.6 | 212.2 | 210.6 | 212.0 | 83.5 | 83.0 |
| 1977 | 215.7 | 217.7 | 215.7 | 217.6 | 91.1 | 84.3 |
| 1978 | 206.5 | 223.4 | 206.5 | 223.3 | 86.5 | 85.6 |
| 1979 | 215.3 | 229.3 | 215.3 | 229.2 | 81.8 | 87.0 |
| 1980 | 225.2 | 235.3 | 225.2 | 235.2 | 86.3 | 88.4 |
| 1981 | 239.5 | 241.5 | 239.5 | 241.4 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
| 1982 | 238.7 | 247.8 | 238.7 | 247.8 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
| 1983 | 266.6 | 254.3 | 266.5 | 254.3 | 92.1 | 92.6 |
| 1984 | 253.3 | 261.0 | 253.1 | 261.0 | 97.2 | 94.1 |
| 1985 | 285.2 | 267.9 | 285.0 | 267.8 | 94.6 | 95.5 |
| 1986 | 296.7 | 274.9 | 296.5 | 274.9 | 94.6 | 97.0 |
| 1987 | 283.3 | 282.1 | 283.1 | 282.1 | 99.0 | 98.6 |
| 1988 | 317.6 | 289.5 | 317.3 | 289.5 | 103.4 | 100.1 |
| 1989 | 270.0 | 297.1 | 269.6 | 297.1 | 100.0 | 101.7 |
| 1990 | 302.2 | 304.9 | 301.7 | 304.9 | 106.1 | 103.3 |
| 1991 | 291.9 | 312.9 | 291.4 | 312.9 | 106.3 | 104.9 |
| 1992 | 326.2 | 321.1 | 325.6 | 321.2 | 102.7 | 106.6 |
| 1993 | 314.6 | 322.0 | 313.9 | 321.9 | 107.1 | 108.3 |
| 1994 | 320.1 | 323.0 | 319.3 | 322.5 | 105.9 | 107.0 |
| 1995 | 328.5 | 323.9 | 327.6 | 323.2 | 107.5 | 105.7 |
| 1996 | 334.8 | 324.9 | 333.7 | 323.9 | 103.6 | 104.4 |
| 1997 | 337.4 | 325.9 | 336.3 | 324.6 | 106.6 | 103.2 |
| 1998 | 328.7 | 326.8 | 327.5 | 325.3 | 100.7 | 101.9 |
| 1999 | 341.2 | 327.8 | 339.7 | 326.0 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
| 2000 | 310.2 | 328.8 | 308.7 | 326.7 | 98.3 | 99.5 |
| 2001 | 315.2 | 329.8 | 313.5 | 327.4 | 99.1 | 98.3 |
| 2002 | 339.5 | 330.7 | 337.4 | 328.1 | 97.3 | 97.1 |
| 2003 | 335.9 | 331.7 | 333.6 | 328.7 | 98.2 | 96.0 |
| 2004 | 326.2 | 332.7 | 323.7 | 329.4 | 92.6 | 94.8 |
| 2005 | 311.0 | 333.7 | 308.4 | 330.1 | 93.9 | 93.7 |
| 2006 | 335.7 | 334.7 | 332.5 | 330.8 | 91.2 | 92.6 |
| 2007 | 334.8 | 335.7 | 331.2 | 331.5 | 91.1 | 91.5 |
| 2008 | 348.8 | 336.7 | 344.5 | 332.3 | 90.5 | 90.4 |
| 2009 | 350.9 | 337.7 | 346.0 | 333.0 | 88.4 | 89.3 |
| 2010 | 329.5 | 338.7 | 324.3 | 333.7 | 88.1 | 88.2 |
| 2011 | 340.6 | 339.7 | 332.6 | 334.4 | 88.7 | 87.2 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-11 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-11 | 0.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 1999-11 | -2.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 2001-11 | 1.0* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 2001-11 | 0.8 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1995-11 | -2.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2005-11 | 0.4 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-11 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1997-11 | -1.9* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-11 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-11 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-11 | -1.2* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.1.0, April 2014, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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