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Figure 15.1
Figure 15.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Lung and Bronchus, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Male, 1975-2012, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Male, 1975-2012, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Female, 1975-2012, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Female, 1975-2012, All Ages
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 89.1 | 90.7 | 89.1 | 90.7 | 75.5 | 76.2 |
| 1976 | 92.8 | 92.1 | 92.8 | 92.1 | 77.6 | 77.5 |
| 1977 | 94.7 | 93.4 | 94.7 | 93.5 | 79.1 | 78.8 |
| 1978 | 95.8 | 94.8 | 95.8 | 94.9 | 80.8 | 80.1 |
| 1979 | 95.2 | 96.2 | 95.2 | 96.3 | 81.6 | 81.5 |
| 1980 | 97.7 | 97.7 | 97.7 | 97.7 | 83.3 | 82.8 |
| 1981 | 98.4 | 99.1 | 98.4 | 99.2 | 83.5 | 84.2 |
| 1982 | 99.7 | 98.9 | 99.7 | 99.0 | 85.2 | 85.6 |
| 1983 | 97.6 | 98.7 | 97.6 | 98.8 | 85.4 | 85.9 |
| 1984 | 99.9 | 98.6 | 99.9 | 98.5 | 86.2 | 86.2 |
| 1985 | 96.9 | 98.4 | 96.9 | 98.3 | 86.7 | 86.5 |
| 1986 | 97.3 | 98.2 | 97.3 | 98.1 | 87.0 | 86.9 |
| 1987 | 100.7 | 98.0 | 100.7 | 97.9 | 88.1 | 87.2 |
| 1988 | 97.9 | 97.9 | 97.9 | 97.6 | 87.9 | 87.5 |
| 1989 | 97.0 | 97.7 | 97.0 | 97.4 | 87.6 | 87.8 |
| 1990 | 96.1 | 97.5 | 96.1 | 97.2 | 88.4 | 88.1 |
| 1991 | 95.9 | 95.8 | 95.9 | 95.5 | 87.8 | 88.4 |
| 1992 | 94.9 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 93.9 | 86.0 | 86.9 |
| 1993 | 92.5 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 92.3 | 85.5 | 85.3 |
| 1994 | 90.1 | 90.8 | 90.1 | 90.7 | 83.8 | 83.8 |
| 1995 | 88.0 | 89.2 | 88.0 | 89.2 | 82.6 | 82.4 |
| 1996 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 81.2 | 80.9 |
| 1997 | 84.8 | 86.1 | 84.8 | 86.1 | 79.8 | 79.5 |
| 1998 | 86.6 | 84.6 | 86.6 | 84.6 | 78.5 | 78.1 |
| 1999 | 83.3 | 83.1 | 83.3 | 83.2 | 75.7 | 76.7 |
| 2000 | 80.8 | 81.6 | 80.7 | 81.8 | 75.4 | 75.4 |
| 2001 | 81.0 | 80.2 | 81.0 | 80.4 | 74.3 | 74.0 |
| 2002 | 79.8 | 78.8 | 79.8 | 79.0 | 72.9 | 72.7 |
| 2003 | 79.6 | 77.4 | 79.5 | 77.6 | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| 2004 | 75.4 | 76.0 | 75.3 | 76.3 | 69.7 | 70.2 |
| 2005 | 75.7 | 74.7 | 75.5 | 75.0 | 69.1 | 68.9 |
| 2006 | 73.2 | 73.4 | 73.0 | 73.7 | 67.0 | 67.0 |
| 2007 | 73.0 | 72.1 | 72.7 | 72.4 | 64.8 | 65.1 |
| 2008 | 71.0 | 70.8 | 70.7 | 71.2 | 63.5 | 63.2 |
| 2009 | 70.0 | 69.6 | 69.6 | 70.0 | 61.4 | 61.4 |
| 2010 | 68.1 | 68.3 | 67.5 | 67.3 | 59.9 | 59.6 |
| 2011 | 66.1 | 67.1 | 65.0 | 64.8 | 57.8 | 57.9 |
| 2012 | 64.4 | 66.0 | 62.2 | 62.4 | 56.1 | 56.3 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 114.9 | 120.4 | 114.9 | 120.2 | 91.0 | 90.5 |
| 1976 | 131.0 | 123.8 | 131.0 | 123.7 | 94.0 | 94.9 |
| 1977 | 124.9 | 127.3 | 124.9 | 127.2 | 100.8 | 99.5 |
| 1978 | 130.5 | 130.9 | 130.5 | 130.9 | 101.6 | 101.9 |
| 1979 | 127.7 | 134.6 | 127.7 | 134.7 | 102.9 | 104.2 |
| 1980 | 151.3 | 138.4 | 151.3 | 138.5 | 106.7 | 106.6 |
| 1981 | 143.0 | 142.3 | 143.0 | 142.5 | 109.7 | 109.1 |
| 1982 | 141.1 | 146.3 | 141.1 | 146.6 | 112.5 | 111.6 |
| 1983 | 151.3 | 150.4 | 151.3 | 150.9 | 112.8 | 114.2 |
| 1984 | 158.8 | 154.6 | 158.8 | 155.2 | 118.0 | 116.9 |
| 1985 | 149.7 | 152.7 | 149.7 | 153.1 | 117.5 | 118.2 |
| 1986 | 156.3 | 150.9 | 156.3 | 151.1 | 119.2 | 119.6 |
| 1987 | 143.6 | 149.0 | 143.6 | 149.0 | 121.8 | 121.0 |
| 1988 | 144.9 | 147.2 | 144.9 | 147.0 | 122.2 | 122.4 |
| 1989 | 142.8 | 145.4 | 142.8 | 145.0 | 124.7 | 123.9 |
| 1990 | 137.2 | 143.6 | 137.2 | 143.1 | 125.2 | 125.3 |
| 1991 | 144.8 | 141.9 | 144.8 | 141.1 | 123.6 | 123.8 |
| 1992 | 148.7 | 140.1 | 148.7 | 139.2 | 121.1 | 122.3 |
| 1993 | 135.3 | 138.4 | 135.3 | 137.3 | 122.0 | 120.8 |
| 1994 | 131.4 | 136.7 | 131.4 | 135.5 | 118.6 | 119.3 |
| 1995 | 138.9 | 135.1 | 138.9 | 133.6 | 116.1 | 116.1 |
| 1996 | 128.5 | 131.7 | 128.5 | 131.8 | 113.2 | 113.0 |
| 1997 | 129.4 | 128.4 | 129.4 | 130.1 | 110.2 | 109.9 |
| 1998 | 131.1 | 125.2 | 131.1 | 126.6 | 107.4 | 107.0 |
| 1999 | 122.2 | 122.1 | 122.2 | 123.1 | 103.6 | 104.1 |
| 2000 | 114.8 | 119.0 | 114.8 | 119.8 | 100.9 | 101.3 |
| 2001 | 114.2 | 116.0 | 114.2 | 116.6 | 99.3 | 98.5 |
| 2002 | 112.8 | 113.1 | 112.7 | 113.4 | 95.6 | 95.9 |
| 2003 | 119.4 | 110.3 | 119.2 | 110.4 | 93.0 | 93.3 |
| 2004 | 105.2 | 107.6 | 105.1 | 107.4 | 90.4 | 90.1 |
| 2005 | 98.0 | 104.9 | 97.8 | 104.5 | 87.0 | 87.1 |
| 2006 | 101.2 | 102.3 | 100.9 | 101.7 | 83.9 | 84.1 |
| 2007 | 100.7 | 99.7 | 100.3 | 98.9 | 82.2 | 81.3 |
| 2008 | 103.5 | 97.2 | 103.0 | 96.3 | 78.2 | 78.5 |
| 2009 | 98.3 | 94.8 | 97.8 | 93.7 | 75.5 | 75.9 |
| 2010 | 86.3 | 92.4 | 85.6 | 91.2 | 73.5 | 73.3 |
| 2011 | 87.0 | 90.1 | 85.8 | 88.7 | 70.1 | 70.8 |
| 2012 | 89.9 | 87.8 | 87.4 | 86.3 | 69.0 | 68.4 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 17.7 | 18.0 |
| 1976 | 27.3 | 26.7 | 27.3 | 26.7 | 19.1 | 19.0 |
| 1977 | 28.1 | 28.2 | 28.1 | 28.2 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| 1978 | 29.9 | 29.8 | 29.9 | 29.8 | 21.6 | 21.3 |
| 1979 | 31.6 | 31.4 | 31.6 | 31.4 | 22.4 | 22.5 |
| 1980 | 32.4 | 33.2 | 32.4 | 33.2 | 24.2 | 23.9 |
| 1981 | 35.5 | 35.1 | 35.5 | 35.1 | 25.1 | 25.2 |
| 1982 | 37.7 | 37.0 | 37.7 | 37.0 | 26.7 | 26.7 |
| 1983 | 39.1 | 38.6 | 39.1 | 38.6 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| 1984 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 29.3 | 29.4 |
| 1985 | 40.9 | 41.9 | 40.9 | 41.8 | 30.8 | 30.6 |
| 1986 | 42.9 | 43.6 | 42.9 | 43.6 | 31.8 | 31.9 |
| 1987 | 45.5 | 45.4 | 45.5 | 45.4 | 33.0 | 33.2 |
| 1988 | 47.7 | 47.3 | 47.7 | 47.3 | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| 1989 | 47.2 | 48.0 | 47.2 | 48.0 | 36.3 | 36.0 |
| 1990 | 49.0 | 48.7 | 49.0 | 48.7 | 37.3 | 37.5 |
| 1991 | 50.6 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 49.5 | 38.1 | 38.2 |
| 1992 | 51.0 | 50.2 | 51.0 | 50.3 | 39.2 | 39.0 |
| 1993 | 50.6 | 51.0 | 50.6 | 51.0 | 40.0 | 39.8 |
| 1994 | 51.6 | 51.7 | 51.6 | 51.8 | 40.3 | 40.6 |
| 1995 | 52.4 | 52.5 | 52.4 | 52.6 | 41.0 | 40.8 |
| 1996 | 53.0 | 53.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 41.2 | 41.1 |
| 1997 | 55.0 | 54.1 | 55.0 | 54.2 | 41.5 | 41.3 |
| 1998 | 55.0 | 54.2 | 55.0 | 55.1 | 41.7 | 41.5 |
| 1999 | 54.4 | 54.4 | 54.4 | 54.6 | 40.9 | 41.7 |
| 2000 | 53.2 | 54.5 | 53.2 | 54.1 | 42.1 | 42.0 |
| 2001 | 53.5 | 54.6 | 53.4 | 53.6 | 42.0 | 42.2 |
| 2002 | 54.3 | 54.8 | 54.2 | 54.0 | 42.6 | 42.4 |
| 2003 | 55.7 | 54.9 | 55.6 | 54.4 | 42.3 | 42.2 |
| 2004 | 53.8 | 55.1 | 53.7 | 54.8 | 42.0 | 41.9 |
| 2005 | 55.9 | 55.2 | 55.7 | 55.2 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| 2006 | 55.5 | 55.4 | 55.3 | 55.6 | 41.4 | 41.5 |
| 2007 | 56.2 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 56.0 | 41.3 | 41.3 |
| 2008 | 54.4 | 54.6 | 54.2 | 54.7 | 40.4 | 40.5 |
| 2009 | 54.3 | 53.7 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 40.0 | 39.8 |
| 2010 | 52.4 | 52.9 | 51.9 | 52.2 | 39.2 | 39.1 |
| 2011 | 52.0 | 52.0 | 51.1 | 50.9 | 38.2 | 38.4 |
| 2012 | 51.3 | 51.2 | 49.6 | 49.7 | 37.7 | 37.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 24.7 | 28.9 | 24.7 | 28.8 | 17.3 | 17.4 |
| 1976 | 28.6 | 30.1 | 28.6 | 30.0 | 18.5 | 18.6 |
| 1977 | 33.9 | 31.3 | 33.9 | 31.3 | 19.9 | 19.7 |
| 1978 | 31.5 | 32.6 | 31.5 | 32.6 | 20.7 | 21.0 |
| 1979 | 34.1 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 34.0 | 22.2 | 22.3 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 35.4 | 38.3 | 35.4 | 24.6 | 23.7 |
| 1981 | 37.4 | 36.9 | 37.4 | 36.9 | 25.1 | 25.2 |
| 1982 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 26.3 | 26.8 |
| 1983 | 39.5 | 40.1 | 39.5 | 40.1 | 28.7 | 27.8 |
| 1984 | 44.8 | 41.8 | 44.8 | 41.8 | 28.0 | 28.9 |
| 1985 | 46.0 | 43.5 | 46.0 | 43.6 | 29.6 | 30.0 |
| 1986 | 48.7 | 45.3 | 48.7 | 45.4 | 31.0 | 31.1 |
| 1987 | 43.3 | 47.2 | 43.3 | 47.3 | 32.5 | 32.2 |
| 1988 | 48.1 | 49.2 | 48.1 | 49.3 | 33.5 | 33.4 |
| 1989 | 51.4 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 51.4 | 34.9 | 34.7 |
| 1990 | 52.1 | 53.4 | 52.1 | 53.6 | 36.5 | 35.9 |
| 1991 | 57.1 | 55.7 | 57.1 | 55.9 | 37.2 | 37.3 |
| 1992 | 56.1 | 55.7 | 56.1 | 55.9 | 38.6 | 38.7 |
| 1993 | 52.5 | 55.8 | 52.5 | 55.9 | 37.7 | 38.8 |
| 1994 | 56.5 | 55.9 | 56.5 | 55.9 | 38.6 | 38.9 |
| 1995 | 50.1 | 55.9 | 50.1 | 56.0 | 38.8 | 39.1 |
| 1996 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 39.1 | 39.2 |
| 1997 | 50.5 | 56.1 | 50.5 | 56.0 | 40.5 | 39.4 |
| 1998 | 58.2 | 56.1 | 58.2 | 56.1 | 40.7 | 39.5 |
| 1999 | 58.9 | 56.2 | 58.9 | 56.1 | 40.0 | 39.6 |
| 2000 | 57.6 | 56.3 | 57.5 | 56.1 | 39.6 | 39.8 |
| 2001 | 57.7 | 56.4 | 57.7 | 56.2 | 38.8 | 39.9 |
| 2002 | 60.6 | 56.4 | 60.6 | 56.2 | 40.2 | 40.1 |
| 2003 | 55.7 | 56.5 | 55.7 | 56.2 | 40.2 | 40.2 |
| 2004 | 57.2 | 56.6 | 57.1 | 56.3 | 39.9 | 40.4 |
| 2005 | 59.5 | 56.6 | 59.4 | 56.3 | 40.1 | 39.6 |
| 2006 | 59.8 | 56.7 | 59.7 | 56.3 | 39.1 | 38.8 |
| 2007 | 56.7 | 56.8 | 56.5 | 56.4 | 38.1 | 38.1 |
| 2008 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 55.9 | 56.4 | 36.9 | 37.4 |
| 2009 | 58.4 | 56.9 | 58.1 | 56.4 | 35.9 | 36.7 |
| 2010 | 54.9 | 57.0 | 54.4 | 56.5 | 36.3 | 36.0 |
| 2011 | 52.7 | 57.1 | 52.0 | 56.5 | 35.4 | 35.3 |
| 2012 | 56.4 | 57.1 | 54.9 | 56.5 | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 1990-12 | -1.8* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2009-12 | -3.8* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 2005-12 | -2.9* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1995-12 | -2.5* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1997-12 | -2.7* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2003-12 | -3.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2007-12 | -1.6* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2007-12 | -2.3* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2007-12 | -1.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1991-12 | 0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1991-12 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 2004-12 | -1.9* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.2.0, April 2015, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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