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Figure 15.3
Figure 15.3
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Lung and Bronchus, Ages 65 and Over, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Male, 1975-2012, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Male, 1975-2012, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Female, 1975-2012, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Female, 1975-2012, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 435.0 | 445.7 | 435.0 | 445.4 | 374.5 | 378.9 |
| 1976 | 460.4 | 455.2 | 460.4 | 455.0 | 388.6 | 388.3 |
| 1977 | 476.3 | 464.9 | 476.3 | 464.9 | 401.2 | 397.9 |
| 1978 | 476.1 | 474.7 | 476.1 | 475.0 | 410.4 | 407.7 |
| 1979 | 478.6 | 484.9 | 478.6 | 485.3 | 418.2 | 417.7 |
| 1980 | 493.6 | 495.2 | 493.6 | 495.8 | 430.0 | 428.0 |
| 1981 | 502.7 | 505.7 | 502.7 | 506.6 | 433.7 | 438.6 |
| 1982 | 516.8 | 507.4 | 516.8 | 508.0 | 447.8 | 449.4 |
| 1983 | 507.0 | 509.0 | 507.0 | 509.3 | 453.7 | 453.6 |
| 1984 | 520.9 | 510.7 | 520.9 | 510.7 | 458.0 | 457.8 |
| 1985 | 493.0 | 512.4 | 493.0 | 512.1 | 461.9 | 462.1 |
| 1986 | 506.7 | 514.1 | 506.7 | 513.5 | 467.1 | 466.5 |
| 1987 | 531.7 | 515.8 | 531.7 | 514.9 | 474.0 | 470.8 |
| 1988 | 510.9 | 517.4 | 510.9 | 516.2 | 475.4 | 475.2 |
| 1989 | 520.9 | 519.1 | 520.9 | 517.6 | 478.5 | 479.7 |
| 1990 | 519.4 | 520.8 | 519.4 | 519.0 | 486.1 | 484.2 |
| 1991 | 523.1 | 522.6 | 523.1 | 520.4 | 488.3 | 488.7 |
| 1992 | 526.3 | 524.3 | 526.3 | 521.8 | 482.1 | 484.9 |
| 1993 | 519.3 | 517.9 | 519.3 | 515.9 | 481.5 | 481.1 |
| 1994 | 506.8 | 511.6 | 506.8 | 510.0 | 476.0 | 477.4 |
| 1995 | 498.7 | 505.3 | 498.7 | 504.2 | 476.0 | 473.7 |
| 1996 | 492.5 | 499.1 | 492.5 | 498.5 | 468.8 | 470.0 |
| 1997 | 482.8 | 493.1 | 482.8 | 492.8 | 467.7 | 466.3 |
| 1998 | 500.3 | 487.0 | 500.3 | 487.2 | 462.3 | 459.7 |
| 1999 | 480.5 | 481.1 | 480.3 | 481.7 | 446.6 | 453.2 |
| 2000 | 468.2 | 475.2 | 468.0 | 476.2 | 446.9 | 446.8 |
| 2001 | 468.3 | 469.4 | 467.9 | 470.8 | 442.6 | 440.4 |
| 2002 | 472.1 | 463.7 | 471.7 | 465.4 | 435.6 | 434.2 |
| 2003 | 474.2 | 458.0 | 473.6 | 460.1 | 427.9 | 428.0 |
| 2004 | 450.9 | 452.4 | 450.1 | 454.9 | 420.4 | 421.9 |
| 2005 | 452.4 | 446.9 | 451.4 | 449.7 | 418.4 | 415.9 |
| 2006 | 438.7 | 441.5 | 437.5 | 444.6 | 408.2 | 410.0 |
| 2007 | 441.6 | 436.1 | 440.0 | 439.5 | 397.2 | 398.9 |
| 2008 | 438.2 | 430.8 | 436.1 | 434.5 | 389.8 | 388.1 |
| 2009 | 428.9 | 425.5 | 426.2 | 429.6 | 377.0 | 377.6 |
| 2010 | 422.9 | 420.3 | 418.7 | 413.5 | 370.3 | 367.3 |
| 2011 | 404.3 | 415.2 | 397.3 | 398.1 | 356.4 | 357.4 |
| 2012 | 396.7 | 410.1 | 382.0 | 383.2 | 346.5 | 347.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 447.3 | 478.9 | 447.3 | 477.1 | 345.2 | 349.6 |
| 1976 | 542.7 | 496.4 | 542.7 | 495.2 | 364.0 | 366.8 |
| 1977 | 490.3 | 514.6 | 490.3 | 513.9 | 399.0 | 384.9 |
| 1978 | 530.2 | 533.5 | 530.2 | 533.4 | 400.0 | 403.8 |
| 1979 | 506.9 | 553.0 | 506.9 | 553.6 | 417.6 | 423.7 |
| 1980 | 649.9 | 573.3 | 649.9 | 574.6 | 449.6 | 444.6 |
| 1981 | 614.5 | 594.3 | 614.5 | 596.4 | 464.9 | 466.5 |
| 1982 | 574.0 | 616.1 | 574.0 | 619.0 | 486.1 | 482.8 |
| 1983 | 647.1 | 638.7 | 647.1 | 642.5 | 494.4 | 499.7 |
| 1984 | 671.0 | 662.1 | 671.0 | 666.8 | 523.1 | 517.2 |
| 1985 | 653.4 | 663.2 | 653.4 | 666.5 | 528.7 | 535.4 |
| 1986 | 710.0 | 664.3 | 710.0 | 666.1 | 550.3 | 554.1 |
| 1987 | 648.9 | 665.5 | 648.9 | 665.8 | 579.6 | 573.5 |
| 1988 | 647.9 | 666.6 | 647.9 | 665.4 | 591.5 | 593.6 |
| 1989 | 637.3 | 667.7 | 637.3 | 665.1 | 602.0 | 597.7 |
| 1990 | 645.0 | 668.8 | 645.0 | 664.8 | 596.3 | 601.8 |
| 1991 | 655.2 | 669.9 | 655.2 | 664.4 | 611.2 | 605.9 |
| 1992 | 720.4 | 671.0 | 720.4 | 664.1 | 602.5 | 610.1 |
| 1993 | 661.0 | 672.1 | 661.0 | 663.8 | 624.3 | 614.3 |
| 1994 | 644.1 | 673.2 | 644.1 | 663.4 | 614.9 | 618.5 |
| 1995 | 703.4 | 674.3 | 703.4 | 663.1 | 606.0 | 607.0 |
| 1996 | 643.9 | 662.7 | 643.9 | 662.8 | 592.2 | 595.8 |
| 1997 | 666.0 | 651.2 | 666.0 | 662.4 | 588.9 | 584.8 |
| 1998 | 685.0 | 640.0 | 684.9 | 649.3 | 575.5 | 573.9 |
| 1999 | 623.3 | 628.9 | 623.1 | 636.5 | 561.0 | 563.3 |
| 2000 | 569.4 | 618.0 | 569.1 | 623.9 | 551.0 | 552.9 |
| 2001 | 597.8 | 607.4 | 597.4 | 611.6 | 552.1 | 542.7 |
| 2002 | 604.7 | 596.9 | 604.2 | 599.6 | 519.8 | 527.8 |
| 2003 | 620.6 | 586.5 | 619.8 | 587.7 | 512.8 | 513.4 |
| 2004 | 572.4 | 576.4 | 571.4 | 576.1 | 497.8 | 499.4 |
| 2005 | 529.7 | 566.4 | 528.5 | 564.7 | 483.5 | 485.7 |
| 2006 | 552.1 | 556.7 | 550.6 | 553.6 | 470.5 | 472.4 |
| 2007 | 550.1 | 547.0 | 548.1 | 542.7 | 468.4 | 459.5 |
| 2008 | 575.7 | 537.6 | 573.1 | 531.9 | 448.5 | 447.0 |
| 2009 | 549.6 | 528.3 | 546.4 | 521.4 | 432.9 | 434.7 |
| 2010 | 489.7 | 519.1 | 485.2 | 511.1 | 422.9 | 422.9 |
| 2011 | 493.5 | 510.2 | 486.4 | 501.0 | 406.9 | 411.3 |
| 2012 | 509.1 | 501.4 | 493.5 | 491.2 | 402.5 | 400.1 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 83.2 | 87.4 | 83.2 | 86.6 | 64.6 | 65.0 |
| 1976 | 95.2 | 93.6 | 95.2 | 92.9 | 72.2 | 70.6 |
| 1977 | 99.7 | 100.2 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 76.2 | 76.8 |
| 1978 | 100.2 | 107.3 | 100.2 | 106.9 | 83.1 | 83.4 |
| 1979 | 117.3 | 114.9 | 117.3 | 114.7 | 88.9 | 90.6 |
| 1980 | 124.0 | 123.0 | 124.0 | 123.1 | 99.1 | 98.5 |
| 1981 | 135.6 | 131.7 | 135.6 | 132.0 | 103.9 | 104.8 |
| 1982 | 147.6 | 141.0 | 147.6 | 141.6 | 111.4 | 111.6 |
| 1983 | 152.4 | 151.0 | 152.4 | 152.0 | 120.3 | 118.9 |
| 1984 | 165.4 | 161.6 | 165.4 | 163.0 | 127.3 | 126.5 |
| 1985 | 167.6 | 173.1 | 167.6 | 174.9 | 136.0 | 134.7 |
| 1986 | 181.6 | 185.3 | 181.6 | 187.6 | 144.0 | 143.5 |
| 1987 | 201.1 | 198.4 | 201.1 | 201.3 | 151.8 | 152.7 |
| 1988 | 211.0 | 212.4 | 211.0 | 208.5 | 160.4 | 162.6 |
| 1989 | 215.2 | 219.2 | 215.2 | 216.0 | 173.2 | 173.2 |
| 1990 | 224.5 | 226.1 | 224.5 | 223.7 | 180.3 | 180.4 |
| 1991 | 235.1 | 233.3 | 235.1 | 231.7 | 188.2 | 187.8 |
| 1992 | 243.3 | 240.8 | 243.3 | 240.0 | 197.3 | 195.6 |
| 1993 | 249.3 | 248.4 | 249.3 | 248.6 | 204.6 | 203.8 |
| 1994 | 255.2 | 256.3 | 255.2 | 257.6 | 209.6 | 212.2 |
| 1995 | 264.2 | 264.5 | 264.2 | 266.8 | 214.9 | 215.5 |
| 1996 | 272.8 | 272.9 | 272.8 | 276.4 | 219.0 | 218.9 |
| 1997 | 284.8 | 281.6 | 284.8 | 286.3 | 224.7 | 222.3 |
| 1998 | 289.6 | 290.5 | 289.6 | 284.8 | 227.8 | 225.7 |
| 1999 | 288.3 | 288.0 | 288.2 | 283.3 | 225.5 | 229.2 |
| 2000 | 278.1 | 285.5 | 278.0 | 281.8 | 233.9 | 232.8 |
| 2001 | 286.7 | 283.1 | 286.4 | 287.4 | 234.4 | 236.4 |
| 2002 | 289.6 | 290.6 | 289.3 | 293.1 | 240.8 | 240.1 |
| 2003 | 305.1 | 298.4 | 304.7 | 299.0 | 240.4 | 240.1 |
| 2004 | 299.6 | 306.3 | 299.1 | 304.9 | 240.4 | 240.2 |
| 2005 | 317.3 | 314.4 | 316.6 | 310.9 | 240.6 | 240.2 |
| 2006 | 318.1 | 322.8 | 317.2 | 317.1 | 239.9 | 240.3 |
| 2007 | 325.2 | 319.4 | 323.9 | 323.4 | 241.3 | 240.3 |
| 2008 | 313.1 | 316.1 | 311.5 | 317.1 | 238.6 | 240.3 |
| 2009 | 314.3 | 312.8 | 312.3 | 311.0 | 236.7 | 236.2 |
| 2010 | 310.6 | 309.6 | 307.4 | 304.9 | 233.0 | 232.0 |
| 2011 | 305.3 | 306.3 | 300.0 | 299.0 | 227.6 | 228.0 |
| 2012 | 302.7 | 303.1 | 291.5 | 293.2 | 223.7 | 224.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 79.3 | 83.4 | 79.3 | 83.2 | 58.4 | 57.3 |
| 1976 | 71.7 | 88.8 | 71.7 | 88.6 | 61.3 | 61.3 |
| 1977 | 120.2 | 94.6 | 120.2 | 94.4 | 60.8 | 65.6 |
| 1978 | 107.7 | 100.7 | 107.7 | 100.5 | 68.9 | 70.1 |
| 1979 | 104.0 | 107.2 | 104.0 | 107.1 | 73.3 | 75.0 |
| 1980 | 121.7 | 114.2 | 121.7 | 114.1 | 84.0 | 80.2 |
| 1981 | 122.3 | 121.6 | 122.3 | 121.5 | 83.6 | 85.7 |
| 1982 | 119.9 | 129.5 | 119.9 | 129.5 | 93.1 | 91.7 |
| 1983 | 141.5 | 137.9 | 141.5 | 137.9 | 105.7 | 98.0 |
| 1984 | 134.7 | 146.9 | 134.7 | 147.0 | 101.8 | 104.8 |
| 1985 | 159.3 | 156.4 | 159.3 | 156.6 | 111.2 | 112.1 |
| 1986 | 178.1 | 166.5 | 178.1 | 166.8 | 120.4 | 119.8 |
| 1987 | 151.7 | 177.3 | 151.7 | 177.7 | 126.8 | 128.1 |
| 1988 | 178.9 | 188.8 | 178.9 | 189.3 | 137.6 | 137.0 |
| 1989 | 200.6 | 201.1 | 200.6 | 201.6 | 149.4 | 146.5 |
| 1990 | 206.7 | 214.2 | 206.7 | 214.8 | 154.3 | 156.7 |
| 1991 | 252.6 | 228.1 | 252.6 | 228.9 | 166.8 | 167.5 |
| 1992 | 246.8 | 242.9 | 246.8 | 243.8 | 173.2 | 172.7 |
| 1993 | 225.7 | 246.0 | 225.7 | 246.8 | 176.0 | 178.1 |
| 1994 | 237.9 | 249.3 | 237.9 | 249.8 | 185.4 | 183.6 |
| 1995 | 221.5 | 252.5 | 221.5 | 252.9 | 187.3 | 189.3 |
| 1996 | 254.3 | 255.8 | 254.3 | 256.0 | 194.7 | 195.1 |
| 1997 | 233.3 | 259.2 | 233.3 | 259.2 | 203.3 | 201.1 |
| 1998 | 280.3 | 262.6 | 280.2 | 262.4 | 204.5 | 202.8 |
| 1999 | 289.1 | 266.0 | 289.0 | 265.6 | 206.7 | 204.4 |
| 2000 | 268.7 | 269.5 | 268.5 | 268.8 | 203.4 | 206.1 |
| 2001 | 282.0 | 273.1 | 281.8 | 272.2 | 202.2 | 207.8 |
| 2002 | 315.7 | 276.7 | 315.4 | 275.5 | 209.2 | 209.5 |
| 2003 | 278.5 | 280.3 | 278.2 | 278.9 | 212.3 | 211.2 |
| 2004 | 286.7 | 284.0 | 286.2 | 282.3 | 213.5 | 212.9 |
| 2005 | 299.2 | 287.7 | 298.5 | 285.8 | 213.6 | 210.6 |
| 2006 | 314.1 | 291.5 | 313.2 | 289.3 | 207.7 | 208.4 |
| 2007 | 289.2 | 295.3 | 288.2 | 292.9 | 207.8 | 206.2 |
| 2008 | 311.0 | 299.2 | 309.5 | 296.5 | 204.3 | 204.0 |
| 2009 | 303.5 | 303.1 | 301.7 | 300.1 | 195.7 | 201.8 |
| 2010 | 291.1 | 307.1 | 288.4 | 303.8 | 203.5 | 199.7 |
| 2011 | 282.6 | 311.1 | 278.4 | 307.5 | 197.6 | 197.5 |
| 2012 | 305.8 | 315.2 | 296.4 | 311.3 | 195.3 | 195.4 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 1992-12 | -1.2* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2009-12 | -3.7* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 2006-12 | -2.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1995-12 | -1.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1997-12 | -2.0* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2001-12 | -2.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2006-12 | -1.0* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2007-12 | -1.9* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2008-12 | -1.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1992-12 | 1.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1992-12 | 1.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 2004-12 | -1.1* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.2.0, April 2015, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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