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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2012, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2012, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2012, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2012, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| 1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| 1977 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| 1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 38.6 | 38.9 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1981 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 1982 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| 1983 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| 1984 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 1985 | 44.4 | 43.9 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| 1986 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1988 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1989 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| 1990 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 1991 | 47.2 | 44.8 | 47.2 | 44.6 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| 1992 | 43.6 | 44.4 | 43.6 | 44.2 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| 1993 | 43.2 | 44.0 | 43.2 | 43.8 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| 1994 | 42.8 | 43.6 | 42.8 | 43.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| 1995 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 43.7 | 44.0 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 44.0 | 44.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1997 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| 1998 | 45.5 | 44.2 | 45.5 | 44.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 1999 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| 2001 | 44.8 | 44.6 | 44.7 | 44.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| 2002 | 43.6 | 44.7 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | 44.4 | 44.8 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 2004 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 44.8 | 44.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 2005 | 44.7 | 45.1 | 44.5 | 44.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 2006 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.1 | 44.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 2007 | 46.0 | 45.4 | 45.7 | 45.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2009 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | 45.5 | 45.8 | 45.0 | 45.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 44.5 | 45.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 43.0 | 38.0 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| 1976 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| 1977 | 37.9 | 38.8 | 37.9 | 38.9 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| 1978 | 40.2 | 39.3 | 40.2 | 39.4 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| 1981 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| 1982 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| 1983 | 41.7 | 42.0 | 41.7 | 41.9 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| 1984 | 44.7 | 42.5 | 44.7 | 42.4 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| 1985 | 45.5 | 43.1 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1986 | 45.6 | 43.6 | 45.6 | 43.5 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 1987 | 43.3 | 44.2 | 43.3 | 44.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| 1988 | 43.0 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 44.6 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| 1989 | 42.2 | 45.4 | 42.2 | 45.1 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 1990 | 49.1 | 46.0 | 49.1 | 45.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1991 | 51.1 | 45.9 | 51.1 | 46.3 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| 1992 | 46.9 | 45.9 | 46.9 | 46.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 1993 | 45.2 | 45.8 | 45.2 | 46.1 | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| 1994 | 47.7 | 45.8 | 47.7 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| 1995 | 45.6 | 45.7 | 45.6 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| 1996 | 44.4 | 45.7 | 44.4 | 45.8 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| 1997 | 44.7 | 45.6 | 44.7 | 45.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| 1998 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| 1999 | 44.1 | 45.5 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| 2000 | 44.9 | 45.5 | 44.9 | 45.4 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| 2001 | 39.9 | 45.4 | 39.8 | 45.3 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| 2002 | 41.5 | 45.4 | 41.4 | 45.2 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| 2003 | 43.5 | 45.3 | 43.4 | 45.1 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 48.1 | 45.2 | 47.9 | 45.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 46.0 | 45.2 | 45.8 | 44.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| 2006 | 45.5 | 45.1 | 45.2 | 44.8 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 2007 | 45.6 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 44.7 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| 2008 | 45.5 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 44.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 2009 | 45.8 | 45.0 | 45.4 | 44.5 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| 2010 | 44.8 | 44.9 | 44.3 | 44.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 2011 | 49.1 | 44.9 | 48.3 | 44.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| 2012 | 42.5 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 44.2 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 282.0 | 271.3 | 282.0 | 271.3 | 91.4 | 92.1 |
| 1976 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 |
| 1977 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 |
| 1978 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.6 |
| 1979 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
| 1980 | 280.1 | 283.9 | 280.1 | 283.9 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
| 1981 | 292.8 | 286.5 | 292.8 | 286.5 | 94.8 | 95.1 |
| 1982 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
| 1983 | 307.2 | 305.1 | 307.2 | 305.1 | 95.8 | 96.1 |
| 1984 | 320.9 | 321.8 | 320.9 | 321.8 | 97.5 | 96.6 |
| 1985 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 346.2 | 339.5 | 98.1 | 97.2 |
| 1986 | 353.3 | 358.3 | 353.3 | 358.2 | 97.5 | 97.7 |
| 1987 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 385.8 | 377.9 | 96.9 | 98.2 |
| 1988 | 375.3 | 376.9 | 375.3 | 376.9 | 98.8 | 98.7 |
| 1989 | 362.5 | 375.9 | 362.5 | 375.9 | 99.2 | 99.3 |
| 1990 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 98.5 | 97.8 |
| 1991 | 378.9 | 373.7 | 378.9 | 373.8 | 97.2 | 96.5 |
| 1992 | 377.0 | 372.7 | 377.0 | 372.8 | 94.5 | 95.1 |
| 1993 | 368.4 | 371.6 | 368.4 | 371.8 | 94.2 | 93.7 |
| 1994 | 379.0 | 377.9 | 379.0 | 377.9 | 92.5 | 92.4 |
| 1995 | 383.5 | 384.3 | 383.5 | 384.2 | 91.1 | 91.1 |
| 1996 | 384.6 | 390.8 | 384.6 | 390.7 | 88.3 | 88.1 |
| 1997 | 400.8 | 397.4 | 400.8 | 397.2 | 83.6 | 85.3 |
| 1998 | 411.1 | 404.1 | 411.0 | 403.8 | 82.5 | 82.5 |
| 1999 | 414.3 | 410.9 | 413.9 | 410.5 | 80.4 | 81.0 |
| 2000 | 402.7 | 417.9 | 402.2 | 417.4 | 80.6 | 79.6 |
| 2001 | 407.7 | 401.9 | 407.0 | 401.4 | 78.0 | 78.1 |
| 2002 | 397.9 | 386.6 | 397.0 | 386.0 | 77.3 | 76.7 |
| 2003 | 361.8 | 371.8 | 360.7 | 371.2 | 75.9 | 75.3 |
| 2004 | 361.4 | 357.6 | 360.0 | 357.0 | 74.4 | 74.0 |
| 2005 | 360.3 | 358.9 | 358.7 | 357.4 | 72.8 | 72.7 |
| 2006 | 355.5 | 360.1 | 353.5 | 357.9 | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| 2007 | 361.5 | 361.4 | 359.0 | 358.4 | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| 2008 | 358.7 | 362.6 | 355.8 | 358.9 | 68.2 | 68.8 |
| 2009 | 368.9 | 363.9 | 365.2 | 359.3 | 67.0 | 67.6 |
| 2010 | 359.0 | 365.1 | 354.5 | 359.8 | 66.5 | 66.3 |
| 2011 | 368.9 | 366.4 | 363.1 | 360.3 | 65.2 | 65.1 |
| 2012 | 369.5 | 367.7 | 360.7 | 360.8 | 64.1 | 64.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 226.1 | 200.7 | 226.1 | 207.6 | 78.8 | 81.7 |
| 1976 | 210.6 | 207.1 | 210.6 | 212.9 | 83.5 | 83.0 |
| 1977 | 216.1 | 213.8 | 216.1 | 218.4 | 91.1 | 84.3 |
| 1978 | 206.5 | 220.7 | 206.5 | 224.0 | 86.5 | 85.6 |
| 1979 | 215.7 | 227.7 | 215.7 | 229.7 | 81.8 | 87.0 |
| 1980 | 225.6 | 235.0 | 225.6 | 235.6 | 86.3 | 88.4 |
| 1981 | 239.6 | 242.6 | 239.6 | 241.6 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
| 1982 | 239.1 | 250.4 | 239.1 | 247.8 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
| 1983 | 266.5 | 258.4 | 266.5 | 254.2 | 92.1 | 92.6 |
| 1984 | 253.6 | 266.7 | 253.6 | 260.7 | 97.2 | 94.1 |
| 1985 | 284.4 | 275.2 | 284.4 | 267.4 | 94.6 | 95.5 |
| 1986 | 297.1 | 284.1 | 297.1 | 274.3 | 94.6 | 97.0 |
| 1987 | 283.0 | 293.2 | 283.0 | 281.3 | 99.0 | 98.6 |
| 1988 | 317.7 | 302.6 | 317.7 | 288.5 | 103.4 | 100.1 |
| 1989 | 270.0 | 304.5 | 270.0 | 295.9 | 100.0 | 101.7 |
| 1990 | 301.7 | 306.4 | 301.7 | 303.5 | 106.1 | 103.3 |
| 1991 | 292.1 | 308.4 | 292.1 | 311.3 | 106.3 | 104.9 |
| 1992 | 326.0 | 310.3 | 326.0 | 319.3 | 102.7 | 106.6 |
| 1993 | 313.9 | 312.3 | 313.9 | 320.5 | 107.1 | 108.3 |
| 1994 | 319.3 | 314.3 | 319.3 | 321.6 | 105.9 | 107.0 |
| 1995 | 328.7 | 316.3 | 328.7 | 322.8 | 107.5 | 105.7 |
| 1996 | 333.8 | 318.3 | 333.8 | 324.0 | 103.6 | 104.4 |
| 1997 | 338.1 | 320.3 | 338.1 | 325.2 | 106.6 | 103.2 |
| 1998 | 330.7 | 322.3 | 330.6 | 326.4 | 100.7 | 101.9 |
| 1999 | 341.4 | 324.4 | 341.2 | 327.6 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
| 2000 | 311.7 | 326.4 | 311.4 | 328.8 | 98.3 | 99.5 |
| 2001 | 314.7 | 328.5 | 314.2 | 330.0 | 99.1 | 98.3 |
| 2002 | 340.2 | 330.6 | 339.4 | 331.2 | 97.3 | 97.1 |
| 2003 | 335.3 | 332.7 | 334.4 | 332.5 | 98.2 | 95.9 |
| 2004 | 325.4 | 334.8 | 324.3 | 333.7 | 92.6 | 94.8 |
| 2005 | 310.7 | 336.9 | 309.4 | 334.9 | 93.9 | 93.7 |
| 2006 | 335.9 | 339.1 | 334.1 | 336.1 | 91.2 | 92.5 |
| 2007 | 334.0 | 341.2 | 331.8 | 337.4 | 91.1 | 91.4 |
| 2008 | 348.1 | 343.4 | 345.3 | 338.6 | 90.5 | 90.3 |
| 2009 | 351.9 | 345.6 | 348.6 | 339.9 | 88.4 | 89.2 |
| 2010 | 330.7 | 347.8 | 326.7 | 341.1 | 88.1 | 88.2 |
| 2011 | 340.7 | 350.0 | 335.2 | 342.4 | 88.7 | 87.1 |
| 2012 | 378.1 | 352.2 | 369.4 | 343.6 | 85.8 | 86.1 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-12 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1993-12 | 0.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 1999-12 | -2.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1990-12 | -0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-12 | -0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1995-12 | -2.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-12 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-12 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1998-12 | -1.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1988-12 | 0.6* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-12 | 0.4* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-12 | -1.2* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.2.0, April 2015, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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