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Figure 2.3
Figure 2.3
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
All Cancer Sites Combined, Ages 65 and Over, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2494.6 | 2510.2 | 2494.6 | 2510.1 | 1403.0 | 1404.8 |
| 1976 | 2570.9 | 2546.8 | 2570.9 | 2546.7 | 1427.1 | 1422.7 |
| 1977 | 2599.1 | 2583.8 | 2599.1 | 2583.8 | 1437.2 | 1440.8 |
| 1978 | 2620.3 | 2621.5 | 2620.3 | 2621.4 | 1460.1 | 1459.2 |
| 1979 | 2681.9 | 2659.6 | 2681.9 | 2659.6 | 1476.5 | 1477.8 |
| 1980 | 2719.9 | 2698.4 | 2719.9 | 2698.4 | 1488.6 | 1485.8 |
| 1981 | 2747.3 | 2737.6 | 2747.3 | 2737.7 | 1483.7 | 1493.8 |
| 1982 | 2768.0 | 2777.5 | 2768.0 | 2777.5 | 1508.4 | 1501.9 |
| 1983 | 2797.5 | 2817.9 | 2797.5 | 2818.0 | 1518.6 | 1510.0 |
| 1984 | 2831.1 | 2859.0 | 2831.1 | 2859.1 | 1519.8 | 1518.2 |
| 1985 | 2818.5 | 2900.6 | 2818.5 | 2900.7 | 1523.7 | 1526.4 |
| 1986 | 2883.3 | 2942.8 | 2883.3 | 2943.0 | 1534.2 | 1534.7 |
| 1987 | 3052.2 | 2985.7 | 3052.2 | 2985.8 | 1536.9 | 1543.0 |
| 1988 | 3035.7 | 3029.1 | 3035.7 | 3029.3 | 1545.6 | 1551.3 |
| 1989 | 3085.2 | 3073.2 | 3085.2 | 3073.5 | 1560.0 | 1559.7 |
| 1990 | 3258.1 | 3252.6 | 3258.1 | 3252.1 | 1573.9 | 1568.2 |
| 1991 | 3529.7 | 3442.5 | 3529.7 | 3441.2 | 1577.8 | 1576.7 |
| 1992 | 3642.6 | 3643.5 | 3642.6 | 3641.3 | 1573.3 | 1585.2 |
| 1993 | 3336.3 | 3390.1 | 3336.3 | 3392.0 | 1572.6 | 1568.5 |
| 1994 | 3094.1 | 3154.3 | 3094.1 | 3159.7 | 1557.5 | 1551.9 |
| 1995 | 2982.6 | 2935.0 | 2982.6 | 2943.4 | 1546.8 | 1535.6 |
| 1996 | 2986.7 | 2975.3 | 2986.7 | 2972.3 | 1520.4 | 1519.4 |
| 1997 | 3016.3 | 3016.3 | 3016.3 | 3001.4 | 1497.4 | 1503.4 |
| 1998 | 3036.9 | 3057.8 | 3036.9 | 3030.9 | 1476.1 | 1487.5 |
| 1999 | 3051.2 | 3036.2 | 3051.2 | 3060.7 | 1477.2 | 1471.9 |
| 2000 | 3022.8 | 3014.8 | 3022.8 | 3032.3 | 1458.8 | 1456.3 |
| 2001 | 3042.3 | 2993.5 | 3042.3 | 3004.1 | 1437.2 | 1441.0 |
| 2002 | 2991.2 | 2972.4 | 2991.2 | 2976.3 | 1422.9 | 1416.8 |
| 2003 | 2909.2 | 2951.4 | 2909.2 | 2948.7 | 1390.3 | 1393.1 |
| 2004 | 2892.3 | 2930.6 | 2892.3 | 2921.3 | 1359.6 | 1369.7 |
| 2005 | 2851.8 | 2910.0 | 2847.0 | 2894.2 | 1353.6 | 1346.7 |
| 2006 | 2879.1 | 2889.4 | 2869.6 | 2867.4 | 1321.3 | 1324.2 |
| 2007 | 2944.2 | 2869.1 | 2929.7 | 2840.8 | 1305.4 | 1302.0 |
| 2008 | 2829.3 | 2848.8 | 2810.6 | 2814.4 | 1281.6 | 1280.1 |
| 2009 | 2762.2 | 2772.1 | 2739.5 | 2788.3 | 1256.2 | 1258.7 |
| 2010 | 2730.8 | 2697.5 | 2704.0 | 2684.9 | 1244.5 | 1237.5 |
| 2011 | 2655.1 | 2624.9 | 2618.8 | 2585.4 | 1219.4 | 1216.8 |
| 2012 | 2511.0 | 2554.3 | 2460.6 | 2489.6 | 1195.5 | 1196.4 |
| 2013 | 2491.0 | 2485.5 | 2398.1 | 2397.3 | 1170.6 | 1176.3 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2554.5 | 2736.7 | 2554.5 | 2736.6 | 1527.3 | 1544.2 |
| 1976 | 2718.3 | 2779.4 | 2718.3 | 2779.3 | 1584.7 | 1583.3 |
| 1977 | 2909.9 | 2822.8 | 2909.9 | 2822.7 | 1641.2 | 1623.4 |
| 1978 | 2781.1 | 2866.8 | 2781.1 | 2866.7 | 1662.1 | 1664.5 |
| 1979 | 2925.4 | 2911.5 | 2925.4 | 2911.5 | 1695.0 | 1706.6 |
| 1980 | 3011.7 | 2956.9 | 3011.7 | 2956.9 | 1765.7 | 1749.8 |
| 1981 | 3135.9 | 3003.1 | 3135.9 | 3003.1 | 1801.4 | 1794.1 |
| 1982 | 3008.1 | 3049.9 | 3008.1 | 3049.9 | 1839.8 | 1839.6 |
| 1983 | 3230.5 | 3097.5 | 3230.5 | 3097.5 | 1877.8 | 1886.2 |
| 1984 | 3130.2 | 3145.8 | 3130.2 | 3145.9 | 1919.9 | 1933.9 |
| 1985 | 3236.1 | 3194.9 | 3236.1 | 3195.0 | 1945.5 | 1960.9 |
| 1986 | 3233.6 | 3244.7 | 3233.6 | 3244.9 | 1979.4 | 1988.3 |
| 1987 | 3373.0 | 3295.3 | 3373.0 | 3295.5 | 2028.1 | 2016.0 |
| 1988 | 3322.8 | 3346.8 | 3322.8 | 3346.9 | 2032.9 | 2044.1 |
| 1989 | 3321.2 | 3399.0 | 3321.2 | 3399.2 | 2106.4 | 2072.6 |
| 1990 | 3551.2 | 3684.0 | 3551.2 | 3683.5 | 2136.3 | 2101.5 |
| 1991 | 4030.9 | 3992.9 | 4030.9 | 3991.7 | 2150.5 | 2130.8 |
| 1992 | 4258.0 | 4327.7 | 4258.0 | 4325.6 | 2124.4 | 2160.6 |
| 1993 | 4218.1 | 4121.7 | 4218.1 | 4123.4 | 2183.9 | 2190.7 |
| 1994 | 3976.9 | 3925.5 | 3976.9 | 3930.6 | 2137.3 | 2154.6 |
| 1995 | 3672.3 | 3738.5 | 3672.3 | 3746.8 | 2122.2 | 2119.2 |
| 1996 | 3571.1 | 3689.9 | 3571.1 | 3695.6 | 2103.9 | 2084.3 |
| 1997 | 3759.5 | 3642.0 | 3759.5 | 3645.1 | 2045.2 | 2049.9 |
| 1998 | 3668.5 | 3594.6 | 3668.5 | 3595.3 | 1990.3 | 2016.2 |
| 1999 | 3604.7 | 3547.9 | 3604.7 | 3546.2 | 1981.8 | 1983.0 |
| 2000 | 3494.2 | 3501.7 | 3494.2 | 3497.7 | 1956.1 | 1950.3 |
| 2001 | 3437.2 | 3456.2 | 3437.2 | 3449.9 | 1928.5 | 1918.2 |
| 2002 | 3371.6 | 3411.3 | 3371.6 | 3402.7 | 1871.9 | 1868.1 |
| 2003 | 3289.6 | 3366.9 | 3289.6 | 3356.2 | 1798.5 | 1819.3 |
| 2004 | 3399.0 | 3323.1 | 3399.0 | 3310.4 | 1769.1 | 1771.8 |
| 2005 | 3119.9 | 3279.9 | 3110.0 | 3265.1 | 1727.8 | 1725.5 |
| 2006 | 3168.1 | 3237.3 | 3148.2 | 3220.5 | 1674.0 | 1680.4 |
| 2007 | 3218.4 | 3195.2 | 3187.6 | 3176.5 | 1659.9 | 1636.5 |
| 2008 | 3265.1 | 3153.6 | 3223.4 | 3133.1 | 1588.5 | 1593.7 |
| 2009 | 3090.0 | 3055.3 | 3041.5 | 3012.4 | 1551.5 | 1552.1 |
| 2010 | 2973.4 | 2960.1 | 2916.9 | 2896.5 | 1534.5 | 1511.5 |
| 2011 | 2836.5 | 2867.9 | 2769.8 | 2784.9 | 1468.3 | 1472.0 |
| 2012 | 2760.6 | 2778.5 | 2671.3 | 2677.7 | 1427.4 | 1433.6 |
| 2013 | 2712.3 | 2691.9 | 2575.6 | 2574.6 | 1386.8 | 1396.1 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1383.1 | 1363.5 | 1383.1 | 1363.7 | 739.4 | 745.4 |
| 1976 | 1408.7 | 1388.9 | 1408.7 | 1389.1 | 759.4 | 753.5 |
| 1977 | 1415.0 | 1414.8 | 1415.0 | 1414.9 | 761.8 | 761.6 |
| 1978 | 1410.2 | 1441.1 | 1410.2 | 1441.2 | 769.6 | 769.9 |
| 1979 | 1454.7 | 1468.0 | 1454.7 | 1468.0 | 772.8 | 778.2 |
| 1980 | 1499.9 | 1495.3 | 1499.9 | 1495.3 | 789.5 | 786.6 |
| 1981 | 1532.4 | 1523.2 | 1532.4 | 1523.1 | 796.1 | 795.1 |
| 1982 | 1532.4 | 1551.5 | 1532.4 | 1551.4 | 805.4 | 803.7 |
| 1983 | 1563.2 | 1580.4 | 1563.2 | 1580.3 | 811.9 | 812.4 |
| 1984 | 1610.0 | 1609.9 | 1610.0 | 1609.6 | 826.2 | 821.2 |
| 1985 | 1660.7 | 1639.8 | 1660.7 | 1639.6 | 829.4 | 830.1 |
| 1986 | 1658.6 | 1670.4 | 1658.6 | 1670.1 | 840.4 | 839.1 |
| 1987 | 1723.9 | 1701.5 | 1723.9 | 1701.1 | 843.1 | 848.1 |
| 1988 | 1715.9 | 1733.2 | 1715.9 | 1732.7 | 852.4 | 857.3 |
| 1989 | 1724.0 | 1735.8 | 1724.0 | 1735.7 | 871.4 | 866.6 |
| 1990 | 1741.4 | 1738.4 | 1741.4 | 1738.7 | 876.5 | 876.0 |
| 1991 | 1772.6 | 1741.1 | 1772.6 | 1741.7 | 882.0 | 882.7 |
| 1992 | 1753.4 | 1743.7 | 1753.4 | 1744.6 | 888.7 | 889.5 |
| 1993 | 1736.8 | 1746.3 | 1736.8 | 1747.6 | 896.7 | 896.4 |
| 1994 | 1746.9 | 1749.0 | 1746.9 | 1750.6 | 900.6 | 903.3 |
| 1995 | 1750.8 | 1751.6 | 1750.8 | 1753.6 | 900.6 | 897.6 |
| 1996 | 1763.2 | 1779.4 | 1763.2 | 1776.0 | 895.2 | 892.0 |
| 1997 | 1814.7 | 1807.5 | 1814.7 | 1798.7 | 885.7 | 886.3 |
| 1998 | 1847.0 | 1836.2 | 1847.0 | 1821.7 | 886.2 | 890.4 |
| 1999 | 1818.4 | 1822.5 | 1818.4 | 1814.5 | 895.5 | 894.5 |
| 2000 | 1783.3 | 1808.9 | 1783.3 | 1807.4 | 899.6 | 898.6 |
| 2001 | 1814.3 | 1795.4 | 1814.3 | 1800.3 | 885.8 | 890.5 |
| 2002 | 1785.4 | 1782.0 | 1785.4 | 1793.2 | 885.6 | 882.4 |
| 2003 | 1751.8 | 1768.7 | 1751.8 | 1786.2 | 877.3 | 874.4 |
| 2004 | 1770.2 | 1767.5 | 1770.2 | 1779.1 | 866.1 | 866.5 |
| 2005 | 1756.4 | 1766.3 | 1754.2 | 1772.1 | 858.4 | 858.7 |
| 2006 | 1764.9 | 1765.0 | 1760.5 | 1765.2 | 851.7 | 850.9 |
| 2007 | 1768.6 | 1763.8 | 1762.1 | 1758.2 | 842.0 | 843.2 |
| 2008 | 1778.0 | 1762.6 | 1769.4 | 1751.3 | 831.9 | 831.8 |
| 2009 | 1792.1 | 1761.4 | 1781.1 | 1744.4 | 815.9 | 820.5 |
| 2010 | 1753.2 | 1760.2 | 1740.4 | 1737.6 | 813.0 | 809.3 |
| 2011 | 1750.5 | 1759.0 | 1732.5 | 1730.8 | 799.2 | 798.3 |
| 2012 | 1754.2 | 1757.8 | 1727.8 | 1723.9 | 788.9 | 787.5 |
| 2013 | 1746.0 | 1756.6 | 1696.6 | 1717.2 | 774.7 | 776.8 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1340.8 | 1290.7 | 1340.8 | 1291.8 | 719.5 | 739.9 |
| 1976 | 1278.3 | 1311.2 | 1278.3 | 1312.2 | 765.5 | 752.6 |
| 1977 | 1346.4 | 1332.1 | 1346.4 | 1332.8 | 760.5 | 765.5 |
| 1978 | 1304.4 | 1353.3 | 1304.4 | 1353.8 | 774.3 | 778.7 |
| 1979 | 1350.3 | 1374.9 | 1350.3 | 1375.1 | 779.8 | 792.0 |
| 1980 | 1412.0 | 1396.7 | 1412.0 | 1396.8 | 818.1 | 805.6 |
| 1981 | 1416.5 | 1419.0 | 1416.5 | 1418.8 | 818.1 | 819.5 |
| 1982 | 1408.1 | 1441.6 | 1408.1 | 1441.1 | 836.4 | 833.5 |
| 1983 | 1504.6 | 1464.5 | 1504.6 | 1463.8 | 858.9 | 847.8 |
| 1984 | 1488.8 | 1487.8 | 1488.8 | 1486.9 | 866.8 | 862.4 |
| 1985 | 1528.5 | 1511.5 | 1528.5 | 1510.3 | 881.5 | 877.2 |
| 1986 | 1560.1 | 1535.6 | 1560.1 | 1534.1 | 896.8 | 892.2 |
| 1987 | 1567.8 | 1560.0 | 1567.8 | 1558.3 | 900.2 | 907.5 |
| 1988 | 1606.8 | 1584.9 | 1606.8 | 1582.8 | 924.0 | 923.1 |
| 1989 | 1526.8 | 1610.1 | 1526.8 | 1607.8 | 940.4 | 938.9 |
| 1990 | 1667.9 | 1635.8 | 1667.9 | 1633.1 | 954.6 | 955.0 |
| 1991 | 1666.9 | 1661.8 | 1666.9 | 1641.4 | 992.5 | 971.4 |
| 1992 | 1658.1 | 1666.2 | 1658.1 | 1649.8 | 970.9 | 988.1 |
| 1993 | 1607.8 | 1670.5 | 1607.8 | 1658.3 | 998.7 | 1005.0 |
| 1994 | 1645.5 | 1674.9 | 1645.5 | 1666.8 | 991.9 | 1001.9 |
| 1995 | 1653.1 | 1679.3 | 1653.1 | 1675.3 | 998.6 | 998.8 |
| 1996 | 1720.1 | 1683.7 | 1720.1 | 1683.9 | 994.3 | 995.6 |
| 1997 | 1700.7 | 1688.1 | 1700.7 | 1692.5 | 1007.7 | 992.5 |
| 1998 | 1713.1 | 1692.5 | 1713.1 | 1701.1 | 979.3 | 989.4 |
| 1999 | 1740.0 | 1696.9 | 1740.0 | 1709.8 | 996.8 | 986.3 |
| 2000 | 1661.1 | 1701.4 | 1661.1 | 1718.6 | 976.9 | 983.2 |
| 2001 | 1680.0 | 1705.8 | 1680.0 | 1727.4 | 974.0 | 980.1 |
| 2002 | 1795.4 | 1710.3 | 1795.4 | 1736.2 | 974.7 | 966.0 |
| 2003 | 1719.0 | 1714.8 | 1719.0 | 1732.2 | 961.2 | 952.1 |
| 2004 | 1707.3 | 1719.2 | 1707.3 | 1728.2 | 936.1 | 938.3 |
| 2005 | 1737.7 | 1723.7 | 1732.8 | 1724.3 | 918.0 | 924.8 |
| 2006 | 1735.2 | 1728.3 | 1725.8 | 1720.3 | 905.5 | 911.5 |
| 2007 | 1733.5 | 1732.8 | 1719.4 | 1716.3 | 903.1 | 898.3 |
| 2008 | 1766.3 | 1737.3 | 1746.5 | 1712.4 | 879.3 | 885.4 |
| 2009 | 1743.2 | 1741.9 | 1720.0 | 1708.4 | 865.3 | 872.6 |
| 2010 | 1719.1 | 1746.4 | 1691.0 | 1704.5 | 858.0 | 860.0 |
| 2011 | 1720.5 | 1751.0 | 1685.0 | 1700.6 | 857.1 | 847.6 |
| 2012 | 1766.3 | 1755.6 | 1718.2 | 1696.6 | 838.0 | 835.4 |
| 2013 | 1741.0 | 1760.2 | 1671.2 | 1692.7 | 822.8 | 823.3 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2008-13 | -2.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2009-13 | -3.7* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 2001-13 | -1.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 2008-13 | -3.1* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 2008-13 | -3.9* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2001-13 | -2.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2003-13 | -0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 1998-13 | -0.4* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2007-13 | -1.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1991-13 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 2002-13 | -0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 2001-13 | -1.4* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.3.0.0, April 2016, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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