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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2013, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2013, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2013, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2013, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| 1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 1977 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| 1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1981 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 1982 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| 1983 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| 1984 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 1985 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 43.9 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| 1986 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| 1988 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1989 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| 1990 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 1991 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| 1992 | 43.6 | 44.4 | 43.6 | 44.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| 1993 | 43.2 | 44.0 | 43.2 | 44.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1994 | 42.8 | 43.7 | 42.8 | 43.7 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1997 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| 1998 | 45.5 | 44.1 | 45.5 | 44.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 1999 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 44.2 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| 2000 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| 2001 | 44.7 | 44.5 | 44.7 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| 2002 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 43.5 | 44.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | 44.3 | 44.7 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 2004 | 44.8 | 44.9 | 44.8 | 44.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 2005 | 44.5 | 45.0 | 44.5 | 44.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 2006 | 45.2 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 44.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| 2007 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 45.7 | 45.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 45.7 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 45.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2009 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 45.0 | 45.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 45.6 | 45.7 | 45.3 | 45.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 44.6 | 45.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2013 | 46.3 | 46.0 | 45.6 | 45.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 43.0 | 37.9 | 43.0 | 37.9 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| 1976 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| 1977 | 37.9 | 38.9 | 37.9 | 38.8 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| 1978 | 40.0 | 39.4 | 40.0 | 39.3 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 39.8 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| 1981 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| 1982 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| 1983 | 41.7 | 41.9 | 41.7 | 41.9 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| 1984 | 44.7 | 42.4 | 44.7 | 42.5 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| 1985 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1986 | 45.6 | 43.5 | 45.6 | 43.6 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| 1987 | 43.3 | 44.0 | 43.3 | 44.1 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| 1988 | 43.0 | 44.6 | 43.0 | 44.7 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| 1989 | 42.3 | 45.1 | 42.3 | 45.3 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 1990 | 49.1 | 45.7 | 49.1 | 45.9 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| 1991 | 51.1 | 46.3 | 51.1 | 46.5 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| 1992 | 46.9 | 46.2 | 46.9 | 46.3 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 1993 | 45.3 | 46.1 | 45.3 | 46.2 | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| 1994 | 47.7 | 46.0 | 47.7 | 46.1 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| 1995 | 45.6 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| 1996 | 44.4 | 45.8 | 44.4 | 45.8 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| 1997 | 44.8 | 45.7 | 44.8 | 45.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| 1998 | 47.2 | 45.6 | 47.2 | 45.6 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| 1999 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 44.1 | 45.5 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| 2000 | 44.9 | 45.5 | 44.9 | 45.3 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| 2001 | 39.8 | 45.4 | 39.8 | 45.2 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| 2002 | 41.4 | 45.3 | 41.4 | 45.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| 2003 | 43.4 | 45.2 | 43.4 | 45.0 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 48.0 | 45.1 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 45.9 | 45.0 | 45.8 | 44.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| 2006 | 45.4 | 44.9 | 45.2 | 44.6 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 45.5 | 44.8 | 45.3 | 44.5 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| 2008 | 45.5 | 44.7 | 45.1 | 44.4 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 2009 | 45.8 | 44.7 | 45.4 | 44.2 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| 2010 | 44.6 | 44.6 | 44.2 | 44.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 2011 | 48.9 | 44.5 | 48.3 | 44.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| 2012 | 42.6 | 44.4 | 41.9 | 43.9 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| 2013 | 42.5 | 44.3 | 41.5 | 43.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 282.0 | 271.3 | 282.0 | 271.3 | 91.4 | 92.2 |
| 1976 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 |
| 1977 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 |
| 1978 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.6 |
| 1979 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
| 1980 | 280.1 | 283.9 | 280.1 | 283.9 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
| 1981 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 94.8 | 95.1 |
| 1982 | 289.9 | 289.1 | 289.9 | 289.1 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
| 1983 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 95.8 | 96.1 |
| 1984 | 321.0 | 321.8 | 321.0 | 321.8 | 97.5 | 96.6 |
| 1985 | 346.2 | 339.5 | 346.2 | 339.5 | 98.1 | 97.1 |
| 1986 | 353.2 | 358.2 | 353.2 | 358.2 | 97.5 | 97.6 |
| 1987 | 385.7 | 377.9 | 385.7 | 377.9 | 96.9 | 98.1 |
| 1988 | 375.3 | 376.9 | 375.3 | 376.9 | 98.8 | 98.6 |
| 1989 | 362.5 | 375.9 | 362.5 | 375.9 | 99.2 | 99.1 |
| 1990 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 98.5 | 97.9 |
| 1991 | 378.9 | 373.8 | 378.9 | 373.8 | 97.2 | 96.7 |
| 1992 | 376.9 | 372.7 | 376.9 | 372.8 | 94.5 | 95.5 |
| 1993 | 368.4 | 371.7 | 368.4 | 371.7 | 94.2 | 94.3 |
| 1994 | 378.9 | 377.9 | 378.9 | 377.9 | 92.5 | 93.1 |
| 1995 | 383.6 | 384.2 | 383.6 | 384.2 | 91.1 | 90.1 |
| 1996 | 384.7 | 390.7 | 384.7 | 390.6 | 88.3 | 87.2 |
| 1997 | 400.6 | 397.2 | 400.6 | 397.1 | 83.6 | 84.4 |
| 1998 | 411.1 | 403.8 | 411.1 | 403.8 | 82.5 | 82.8 |
| 1999 | 414.0 | 410.6 | 414.0 | 410.5 | 80.4 | 81.3 |
| 2000 | 402.1 | 417.4 | 402.1 | 417.3 | 80.6 | 79.8 |
| 2001 | 407.0 | 401.4 | 407.0 | 401.4 | 78.0 | 78.3 |
| 2002 | 397.0 | 385.9 | 397.0 | 386.1 | 77.3 | 76.9 |
| 2003 | 361.0 | 371.1 | 361.0 | 371.4 | 75.9 | 75.5 |
| 2004 | 360.2 | 356.8 | 360.2 | 357.2 | 74.4 | 74.1 |
| 2005 | 359.0 | 357.8 | 358.7 | 357.7 | 72.8 | 72.7 |
| 2006 | 354.6 | 358.8 | 354.0 | 358.2 | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| 2007 | 360.2 | 359.8 | 359.3 | 358.7 | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| 2008 | 357.4 | 360.8 | 356.2 | 359.2 | 68.2 | 68.8 |
| 2009 | 367.1 | 361.8 | 365.5 | 359.7 | 67.0 | 67.5 |
| 2010 | 356.5 | 362.8 | 354.6 | 360.2 | 66.5 | 66.3 |
| 2011 | 366.5 | 363.8 | 364.0 | 360.7 | 65.2 | 65.0 |
| 2012 | 365.5 | 364.8 | 361.9 | 361.1 | 64.1 | 63.8 |
| 2013 | 366.2 | 365.8 | 360.6 | 361.6 | 62.7 | 62.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 226.1 | 200.9 | 226.1 | 207.8 | 78.8 | 81.6 |
| 1976 | 210.6 | 207.3 | 210.6 | 213.1 | 83.5 | 82.9 |
| 1977 | 216.1 | 213.9 | 216.1 | 218.5 | 91.1 | 84.3 |
| 1978 | 207.0 | 220.7 | 207.0 | 224.1 | 86.5 | 85.6 |
| 1979 | 215.7 | 227.8 | 215.7 | 229.8 | 81.8 | 87.0 |
| 1980 | 225.1 | 235.0 | 225.1 | 235.7 | 86.3 | 88.3 |
| 1981 | 239.6 | 242.5 | 239.6 | 241.7 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
| 1982 | 239.1 | 250.2 | 239.1 | 247.8 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
| 1983 | 266.5 | 258.2 | 266.5 | 254.2 | 92.1 | 92.6 |
| 1984 | 253.6 | 266.4 | 253.6 | 260.7 | 97.2 | 94.1 |
| 1985 | 284.4 | 274.9 | 284.4 | 267.3 | 94.6 | 95.6 |
| 1986 | 297.4 | 283.7 | 297.4 | 274.1 | 94.6 | 97.1 |
| 1987 | 283.1 | 292.7 | 283.1 | 281.1 | 99.0 | 98.7 |
| 1988 | 317.7 | 302.0 | 317.7 | 288.3 | 103.4 | 100.2 |
| 1989 | 270.0 | 304.0 | 270.0 | 295.7 | 100.0 | 101.8 |
| 1990 | 301.7 | 306.0 | 301.7 | 303.2 | 106.1 | 103.4 |
| 1991 | 292.1 | 308.0 | 292.1 | 310.9 | 106.3 | 105.1 |
| 1992 | 326.3 | 310.1 | 326.3 | 318.9 | 102.7 | 106.8 |
| 1993 | 313.9 | 312.1 | 313.9 | 320.2 | 107.1 | 108.4 |
| 1994 | 319.3 | 314.2 | 319.3 | 321.5 | 105.9 | 107.1 |
| 1995 | 328.7 | 316.3 | 328.7 | 322.8 | 107.5 | 105.8 |
| 1996 | 334.1 | 318.4 | 334.1 | 324.1 | 103.6 | 104.5 |
| 1997 | 339.4 | 320.5 | 339.4 | 325.4 | 106.6 | 103.2 |
| 1998 | 331.6 | 322.6 | 331.6 | 326.7 | 100.7 | 101.9 |
| 1999 | 341.5 | 324.7 | 341.5 | 328.0 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
| 2000 | 311.7 | 326.9 | 311.7 | 329.3 | 98.3 | 99.4 |
| 2001 | 314.7 | 329.0 | 314.7 | 330.7 | 99.1 | 98.2 |
| 2002 | 340.1 | 331.2 | 340.1 | 332.0 | 97.3 | 97.0 |
| 2003 | 334.4 | 333.4 | 334.4 | 333.3 | 98.2 | 95.8 |
| 2004 | 323.5 | 335.6 | 323.5 | 334.7 | 92.6 | 94.6 |
| 2005 | 310.7 | 337.8 | 310.0 | 336.0 | 93.9 | 93.4 |
| 2006 | 336.1 | 340.1 | 334.7 | 337.4 | 91.2 | 92.3 |
| 2007 | 333.9 | 342.3 | 331.8 | 338.7 | 91.1 | 91.2 |
| 2008 | 348.8 | 344.6 | 345.5 | 340.1 | 90.5 | 90.0 |
| 2009 | 352.7 | 346.9 | 348.9 | 341.5 | 88.4 | 88.9 |
| 2010 | 331.5 | 349.2 | 327.2 | 342.9 | 88.1 | 87.8 |
| 2011 | 341.4 | 351.5 | 335.9 | 344.3 | 88.6 | 86.7 |
| 2012 | 377.9 | 353.8 | 370.3 | 345.6 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| 2013 | 363.5 | 356.1 | 353.8 | 347.0 | 82.8 | 84.6 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-13 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-13 | 0.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 2004-13 | -1.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-13 | -0.2 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-13 | -0.3 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1995-13 | -2.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-13 | 0.3 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-13 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1997-13 | -1.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1988-13 | 0.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-13 | 0.4* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-13 | -1.2* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.3.0.0, April 2016, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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