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Figure 8.1

CSR Figure 8.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex

Figure 8.1

Rates per 100,000 for Esophagus, White, Male, 1975-2013, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 5.6 5.2 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.3
1976 5.9 5.3 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3
1977 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3
1978 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3
1979 6.2 5.6 6.2 5.6 5.3 5.4
1980 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4
1981 5.2 5.8 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.4
1982 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.4
1983 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.5
1984 5.6 6.1 5.6 6.1 5.6 5.6
1985 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.7
1986 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.3 5.8 5.8
1987 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.0
1988 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.0 6.1
1989 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.2
1990 7.2 6.8 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.3
1991 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.4 6.4
1992 7.4 7.0 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.5
1993 6.9 7.1 6.9 7.1 6.6 6.7
1994 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.3 6.9 6.8
1995 6.6 7.4 6.6 7.4 7.0 6.9
1996 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.1
1997 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.1 7.2
1998 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.3 7.3
1999 8.4 7.9 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5
2000 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.1 7.6 7.6
2001 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.2 7.7 7.6
2002 8.1 8.3 8.1 8.3 7.8 7.7
2003 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.5 7.7 7.8
2004 9.3 8.6 9.3 8.6 7.8 7.9
2005 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.1 8.0
2006 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.0 7.9
2007 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 7.8 7.9
2008 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.4 7.7 7.8
2009 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 7.7 7.8
2010 8.0 8.3 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.7
2011 8.6 8.3 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.7
2012 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.6
2013 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.1 7.5 7.6
Rates per 100,000 for Esophagus, Black, Male, 1975-2013, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 17.0 17.4
1976 16.9 20.3 16.9 20.3 17.7 17.6
1977 20.9 20.5 20.9 20.5 17.6 17.7
1978 24.4 20.8 24.4 20.8 17.6 17.8
1979 23.0 21.0 23.0 21.0 18.6 18.0
1980 18.8 21.2 18.8 21.2 18.3 18.1
1981 21.3 21.5 21.3 21.5 18.7 18.3
1982 22.7 21.7 22.7 21.7 18.6 18.4
1983 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.0 17.9 18.5
1984 19.9 22.2 19.9 22.2 18.8 18.7
1985 22.2 22.5 22.2 22.5 17.7 18.3
1986 24.0 22.7 24.0 22.7 18.0 18.0
1987 20.1 21.6 20.1 21.6 17.1 17.6
1988 19.5 20.6 19.5 20.6 18.4 17.3
1989 17.3 19.6 17.3 19.6 17.3 17.0
1990 21.3 18.6 21.3 18.7 16.3 16.7
1991 17.8 17.7 17.8 17.8 16.5 16.3
1992 18.2 16.9 18.2 16.9 15.1 16.0
1993 17.5 16.1 17.5 16.1 16.0 15.7
1994 14.7 15.3 14.7 15.3 15.3 15.0
1995 13.8 14.6 13.8 14.6 14.4 14.3
1996 16.4 13.9 16.4 13.9 13.6 13.6
1997 11.0 13.2 11.0 13.2 12.8 13.0
1998 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.2 12.4
1999 11.5 12.0 11.5 11.9 11.6 11.8
2000 10.6 11.4 10.6 11.4 10.9 11.2
2001 11.6 10.8 11.6 10.8 11.3 10.7
2002 10.0 10.3 10.0 10.3 10.2 10.2
2003 10.2 9.8 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.7
2004 8.9 9.3 8.9 9.3 9.0 9.2
2005 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.8
2006 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.4
2007 8.4 8.1 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0
2008 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6
2009 6.7 7.3 6.7 7.3 7.2 7.3
2010 7.5 7.0 7.5 6.9 7.4 6.9
2011 4.8 6.6 4.8 6.6 6.5 6.6
2012 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.3
2013 6.9 6.0 6.8 6.0 5.9 6.0
Rates per 100,000 for Esophagus, White, Female, 1975-2013, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
1976 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.5
1977 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5
1978 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.5
1979 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
1980 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5
1981 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5
1982 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5
1983 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.5
1984 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.5
1985 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5
1986 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6
1987 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6
1988 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6
1989 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6
1990 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6
1991 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6
1992 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6
1993 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6
1994 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6
1995 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6
1996 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6
1997 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6
1998 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6
1999 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6
2000 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6
2001 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6
2002 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7
2003 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7
2004 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6
2005 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6
2006 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6
2007 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.6
2008 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6
2009 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5
2010 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5
2011 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5
2012 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5
2013 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5
Rates per 100,000 for Esophagus, Black, Female, 1975-2013, All Ages
Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)		U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 3.7 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.1 4.4
1976 5.6 4.6 5.6 4.6 4.3 4.4
1977 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.4
1978 4.3 5.5 4.3 5.5 4.3 4.4
1979 5.2 5.9 5.2 5.9 4.2 4.4
1980 7.4 6.5 7.4 6.5 4.9 4.4
1981 7.5 7.0 7.5 7.0 4.3 4.4
1982 6.4 6.8 6.4 6.8 4.5 4.4
1983 4.3 6.6 4.3 6.6 4.5 4.4
1984 6.0 6.3 6.0 6.3 4.6 4.3
1985 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.1 4.3 4.3
1986 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.9 4.5 4.3
1987 4.8 5.7 4.8 5.7 4.4 4.3
1988 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.6 3.9 4.3
1989 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 4.3 4.3
1990 5.8 5.2 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.3
1991 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.1 4.3
1992 5.3 4.9 5.3 4.9 4.1 4.3
1993 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.1
1994 5.1 4.5 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.9
1995 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.5 3.8
1996 4.8 4.3 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
1997 4.5 4.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.5
1998 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3
1999 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.2
2000 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.1
2001 2.6 3.6 2.6 3.6 3.0 2.9
2002 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.8
2003 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.7
2004 4.0 3.3 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.6
2005 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.3 2.5
2006 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.4
2007 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.3
2008 2.3 2.9 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.2
2009 3.4 2.8 3.4 2.8 1.9 2.1
2010 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.0
2011 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.9
2012 1.7 2.5 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.9
2013 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.8
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Esophagus, All Ages, 1975-2013
Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male2004-13-0.6
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2004-13-0.7
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2005-13-0.6*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male1986-13-4.8*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male1986-13-4.8*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male1993-13-4.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female1975-130.0
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female1975-13-0.1
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2003-13-1.2*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female1981-13-3.3*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female1981-13-3.3*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female1992-13-4.1*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.3.0.0, April 2016, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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