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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2013, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2013, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2013, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 28.9 | 30.6 | 28.9 | 30.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1991 | 39.4 | 37.6 | 39.4 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1992 | 49.4 | 46.3 | 49.4 | 46.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 49.0 | 47.8 | 49.0 | 47.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1994 | 46.9 | 49.3 | 46.9 | 49.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1995 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1996 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.0 | 54.2 | 54.0 | 54.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.1 | 55.9 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 58.8 | 57.7 | 58.8 | 57.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2000 | 59.8 | 59.6 | 59.8 | 59.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 62.6 | 61.5 | 62.6 | 61.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 63.9 | 61.3 | 63.9 | 61.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 59.8 | 61.1 | 59.8 | 61.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.5 | 60.9 | 60.5 | 60.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 55.5 | 60.7 | 55.4 | 60.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 62.7 | 60.5 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.1 | 60.3 | 63.8 | 60.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.4 | 60.1 | 60.0 | 59.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 60.5 | 59.9 | 60.0 | 59.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 56.7 | 59.7 | 56.2 | 59.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 55.3 | 52.9 | 54.5 | 52.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | 43.8 | 46.8 | 42.9 | 45.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | 42.6 | 41.5 | 41.1 | 40.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.5 | 32.1 | 31.5 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.2 | 33.5 | 37.2 | 33.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 31.4 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| 1988 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1989 | 37.3 | 37.0 | 37.3 | 37.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.8 | 46.7 | 44.8 | 46.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| 1991 | 57.6 | 59.0 | 57.6 | 58.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| 1992 | 78.8 | 74.4 | 78.8 | 74.4 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
| 1993 | 94.7 | 94.0 | 94.7 | 93.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 95.9 | 96.5 | 95.9 | 96.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 100.2 | 99.1 | 100.2 | 99.1 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 101.1 | 101.8 | 101.1 | 101.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 98.7 | 104.5 | 98.7 | 104.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| 1998 | 104.9 | 107.3 | 104.9 | 107.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| 1999 | 113.6 | 110.2 | 113.6 | 110.5 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 2000 | 115.8 | 113.2 | 115.8 | 113.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 115.3 | 116.2 | 115.3 | 116.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 2002 | 118.1 | 115.4 | 118.1 | 115.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2003 | 116.6 | 114.7 | 116.6 | 114.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| 2004 | 106.9 | 113.9 | 106.9 | 113.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2005 | 107.6 | 113.1 | 107.2 | 112.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 110.6 | 112.4 | 109.8 | 111.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| 2007 | 121.0 | 111.6 | 119.6 | 110.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 112.9 | 110.9 | 111.2 | 109.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2009 | 112.2 | 110.2 | 110.1 | 108.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010 | 107.9 | 109.4 | 105.6 | 107.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 107.0 | 108.7 | 104.2 | 106.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 93.8 | 96.4 | 90.5 | 92.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 2013 | 86.9 | 85.6 | 82.2 | 81.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.4 | 631.3 | 639.4 | 631.3 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 674.1 | 648.3 | 674.1 | 648.3 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.6 | 665.8 | 680.6 | 665.8 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 671.0 | 683.8 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 708.0 | 702.3 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.2 | 721.2 | 729.2 | 721.2 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.3 | 740.7 | 743.3 | 740.7 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.0 | 760.7 | 740.0 | 760.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.1 | 781.2 | 762.1 | 781.2 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.1 | 802.3 | 759.1 | 802.3 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 784.9 | 824.0 | 784.9 | 824.0 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.4 | 846.2 | 815.4 | 846.2 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.2 | 869.1 | 919.2 | 869.1 | 241.3 | 239.7 |
| 1988 | 943.8 | 892.5 | 943.8 | 892.5 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 990.3 | 1025.7 | 990.3 | 1025.8 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1167.6 | 1178.8 | 1167.6 | 1178.9 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1440.5 | 1354.7 | 1440.5 | 1354.8 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1544.6 | 1556.9 | 1544.6 | 1557.0 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1279.4 | 1310.9 | 1279.4 | 1310.7 | 270.8 | 269.3 |
| 1994 | 1054.9 | 1103.7 | 1054.9 | 1103.3 | 266.0 | 268.0 |
| 1995 | 967.6 | 929.3 | 967.6 | 928.8 | 256.9 | 256.4 |
| 1996 | 947.2 | 945.5 | 947.2 | 945.4 | 246.4 | 245.2 |
| 1997 | 971.6 | 961.9 | 971.6 | 962.3 | 234.6 | 234.5 |
| 1998 | 957.0 | 978.6 | 957.0 | 979.6 | 223.4 | 224.3 |
| 1999 | 1010.5 | 995.6 | 1010.5 | 997.1 | 216.9 | 216.5 |
| 2000 | 1006.6 | 1012.9 | 1006.6 | 1015.0 | 208.3 | 209.0 |
| 2001 | 1013.6 | 986.0 | 1013.6 | 986.7 | 202.1 | 201.7 |
| 2002 | 980.3 | 959.8 | 980.3 | 959.2 | 197.5 | 194.6 |
| 2003 | 902.6 | 934.3 | 902.6 | 932.5 | 187.0 | 187.9 |
| 2004 | 867.4 | 909.5 | 867.4 | 906.5 | 179.5 | 181.3 |
| 2005 | 823.6 | 885.4 | 821.5 | 881.2 | 174.2 | 175.0 |
| 2006 | 903.9 | 861.9 | 899.5 | 856.7 | 165.8 | 168.9 |
| 2007 | 911.8 | 839.0 | 905.2 | 832.8 | 165.6 | 163.0 |
| 2008 | 807.4 | 816.7 | 799.5 | 809.6 | 158.3 | 157.3 |
| 2009 | 784.9 | 795.0 | 775.2 | 787.1 | 151.1 | 151.8 |
| 2010 | 753.3 | 773.9 | 742.4 | 765.1 | 148.6 | 146.5 |
| 2011 | 716.6 | 690.2 | 702.0 | 675.1 | 142.7 | 141.4 |
| 2012 | 582.6 | 615.6 | 566.3 | 595.6 | 133.5 | 136.5 |
| 2013 | 561.4 | 549.1 | 535.3 | 525.5 | 132.2 | 131.7 |
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 931.2 | 949.8 | 931.2 | 949.7 | 394.0 | 391.6 |
| 1976 | 910.9 | 969.0 | 910.9 | 968.9 | 392.2 | 399.7 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 988.5 | 1057.2 | 988.5 | 398.7 | 408.0 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1008.5 | 986.4 | 1008.4 | 416.1 | 416.4 |
| 1979 | 1098.9 | 1028.8 | 1098.9 | 1028.8 | 422.9 | 425.0 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1049.6 | 1041.4 | 1049.6 | 445.0 | 433.8 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1070.8 | 1041.9 | 1070.8 | 454.4 | 442.8 |
| 1982 | 1109.8 | 1092.4 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 447.7 | 452.0 |
| 1983 | 1118.4 | 1114.5 | 1118.4 | 1114.6 | 462.5 | 461.3 |
| 1984 | 1158.1 | 1137.0 | 1158.1 | 1137.1 | 475.1 | 470.9 |
| 1985 | 1129.0 | 1160.0 | 1129.0 | 1160.1 | 482.7 | 480.6 |
| 1986 | 1098.3 | 1183.4 | 1098.3 | 1183.5 | 487.4 | 490.5 |
| 1987 | 1249.5 | 1207.3 | 1249.5 | 1207.4 | 499.0 | 500.7 |
| 1988 | 1263.8 | 1231.7 | 1263.8 | 1231.8 | 502.3 | 511.0 |
| 1989 | 1259.3 | 1256.6 | 1259.3 | 1256.7 | 518.5 | 528.7 |
| 1990 | 1450.9 | 1510.1 | 1450.9 | 1509.8 | 565.6 | 547.1 |
| 1991 | 1893.2 | 1814.9 | 1893.2 | 1813.7 | 570.2 | 566.0 |
| 1992 | 2066.8 | 2181.1 | 2066.8 | 2178.8 | 578.7 | 585.6 |
| 1993 | 2081.0 | 1983.2 | 2081.0 | 1984.9 | 599.1 | 605.9 |
| 1994 | 1828.4 | 1803.2 | 1828.4 | 1808.2 | 585.9 | 590.4 |
| 1995 | 1564.2 | 1639.6 | 1564.2 | 1647.3 | 572.5 | 575.3 |
| 1996 | 1556.0 | 1604.4 | 1556.0 | 1609.7 | 579.2 | 560.6 |
| 1997 | 1590.1 | 1570.0 | 1590.1 | 1573.0 | 544.2 | 546.3 |
| 1998 | 1576.8 | 1536.3 | 1576.8 | 1537.1 | 532.4 | 532.4 |
| 1999 | 1540.2 | 1503.3 | 1540.2 | 1502.1 | 514.8 | 518.8 |
| 2000 | 1528.3 | 1471.1 | 1528.3 | 1467.8 | 507.8 | 505.5 |
| 2001 | 1400.2 | 1439.5 | 1400.2 | 1434.4 | 499.7 | 492.6 |
| 2002 | 1487.2 | 1408.6 | 1487.2 | 1401.7 | 477.8 | 473.2 |
| 2003 | 1273.1 | 1378.4 | 1273.1 | 1369.7 | 441.0 | 454.5 |
| 2004 | 1316.6 | 1348.8 | 1316.6 | 1338.5 | 433.7 | 436.6 |
| 2005 | 1271.2 | 1319.9 | 1265.1 | 1308.0 | 417.8 | 419.4 |
| 2006 | 1281.4 | 1291.6 | 1268.9 | 1278.2 | 393.5 | 402.9 |
| 2007 | 1309.8 | 1263.9 | 1290.5 | 1249.0 | 403.0 | 387.0 |
| 2008 | 1257.5 | 1236.8 | 1233.6 | 1220.5 | 357.6 | 371.7 |
| 2009 | 1200.2 | 1210.2 | 1171.7 | 1192.7 | 359.7 | 357.1 |
| 2010 | 1124.1 | 1114.9 | 1092.6 | 1085.7 | 350.0 | 343.0 |
| 2011 | 1049.4 | 1027.2 | 1014.3 | 988.2 | 318.5 | 321.3 |
| 2012 | 897.6 | 946.3 | 857.6 | 899.5 | 302.6 | 301.0 |
| 2013 | 893.5 | 871.8 | 834.3 | 818.8 | 281.8 | 282.0 |
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2010-13 | -11.4* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2010-13 | -12.2* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2000-13 | -1.1* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2011-13 | -11.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2011-13 | -12.6* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 1992-13 | -2.9* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2010-13 | -10.8* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2010-13 | -11.8* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 1998-13 | -3.5* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2009-13 | -7.9* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2009-13 | -9.0* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2010-13 | -6.3* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.3.0.0, April 2016, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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