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Figure 15.1

CSR Figure 15.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex


Figure 15.1

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Male, 1975-2014, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 89.1 90.7 89.1 90.7 75.5 75.9
1976 92.7 92.1 92.7 92.1 77.6 77.4
1977 94.7 93.5 94.7 93.5 79.1 78.8
1978 95.8 94.9 95.8 94.9 80.8 80.3
1979 95.2 96.3 95.2 96.3 81.6 81.9
1980 97.7 97.8 97.7 97.7 83.3 83.5
1981 98.4 99.2 98.4 99.2 83.5 84.1
1982 99.7 99.0 99.7 99.0 85.2 84.7
1983 97.6 98.8 97.6 98.8 85.4 85.3
1984 99.9 98.5 99.9 98.5 86.2 86.0
1985 96.8 98.3 96.8 98.3 86.7 86.6
1986 97.3 98.0 97.3 98.1 87.0 87.3
1987 100.7 97.8 100.7 97.9 88.1 87.9
1988 97.9 97.6 97.9 97.7 87.9 88.0
1989 97.0 97.3 97.0 97.4 87.6 88.1
1990 96.1 97.1 96.1 97.2 88.4 88.1
1991 95.9 95.5 95.9 95.5 87.8 88.2
1992 94.9 93.9 94.9 93.9 86.0 86.7
1993 92.5 92.3 92.5 92.3 85.5 85.2
1994 90.1 90.7 90.1 90.7 83.8 83.7
1995 88.0 89.2 88.0 89.2 82.6 82.2
1996 86.7 87.6 86.7 87.6 81.2 80.8
1997 84.8 86.2 84.8 86.1 79.8 79.4
1998 86.6 84.7 86.6 84.6 78.5 78.0
1999 83.2 83.3 83.2 83.2 75.7 76.6
2000 80.7 81.9 80.7 81.8 75.4 75.3
2001 81.0 80.5 81.0 80.4 74.3 74.0
2002 79.8 79.1 79.8 79.0 72.9 72.7
2003 79.5 77.8 79.5 77.6 71.3 71.4
2004 75.3 76.4 75.3 76.3 69.7 70.2
2005 75.6 75.1 75.6 75.0 69.1 69.0
2006 73.1 73.9 73.1 73.7 67.0 67.0
2007 72.9 72.6 72.8 72.4 64.8 65.1
2008 70.8 71.4 70.7 71.2 63.5 63.3
2009 69.8 69.4 69.6 70.0 61.4 61.5
2010 67.9 67.4 67.7 67.6 59.9 59.7
2011 65.5 65.5 65.2 65.3 57.8 58.0
2012 63.2 63.7 62.9 63.1 56.1 56.0
2013 61.2 61.9 60.6 61.0 53.9 54.0
2014 60.9 60.2 59.3 58.9 52.1 52.1

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Male, 1975-2014, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 114.7 120.1 114.7 120.2 91.0 90.5
1976 131.0 123.6 131.0 123.6 94.0 94.9
1977 124.9 127.2 124.9 127.2 100.8 99.5
1978 130.5 130.9 130.5 130.9 101.6 101.9
1979 127.7 134.7 127.7 134.7 102.9 104.2
1980 151.4 138.6 151.4 138.5 106.7 106.6
1981 143.0 142.6 143.0 142.5 109.7 109.1
1982 141.1 146.7 141.1 146.7 112.5 111.6
1983 151.3 151.0 151.3 150.9 112.8 114.2
1984 158.8 155.4 158.8 155.3 118.0 116.9
1985 149.7 153.2 149.7 153.2 117.5 118.2
1986 156.3 151.1 156.3 151.1 119.2 119.6
1987 143.6 149.0 143.6 149.0 121.8 121.0
1988 144.9 147.0 144.9 147.0 122.2 122.4
1989 142.8 145.0 142.8 145.0 124.7 123.9
1990 137.2 143.0 137.2 143.0 125.2 125.3
1991 144.8 141.0 144.8 141.1 123.6 123.8
1992 148.7 139.0 148.7 139.2 121.1 122.3
1993 135.3 137.1 135.3 137.3 122.0 120.8
1994 131.4 135.2 131.4 135.4 118.6 119.4
1995 138.9 133.4 138.9 133.6 116.1 116.1
1996 128.4 131.5 128.4 131.8 113.2 113.0
1997 129.5 129.7 129.5 130.0 110.2 109.9
1998 131.0 127.9 131.0 128.2 107.4 106.9
1999 122.3 124.3 122.3 124.5 103.6 104.0
2000 114.8 120.8 114.8 120.8 100.9 101.2
2001 114.3 117.3 114.3 117.3 99.3 98.4
2002 112.8 114.0 112.8 113.8 95.6 95.7
2003 119.4 110.7 119.4 110.5 93.0 93.1
2004 105.2 107.6 105.2 107.3 90.4 90.6
2005 97.9 104.5 97.9 104.1 87.0 87.4
2006 101.1 101.6 101.0 101.1 83.9 84.3
2007 100.9 98.7 100.6 98.1 82.2 81.4
2008 103.6 95.9 103.2 95.2 78.2 78.5
2009 98.6 93.1 98.1 92.4 75.5 75.7
2010 86.1 90.5 85.5 89.7 73.5 73.1
2011 86.9 87.9 86.3 87.1 70.0 70.5
2012 90.0 85.4 89.0 84.5 68.9 68.0
2013 82.0 83.0 80.9 82.0 66.0 65.6
2014 74.7 80.6 72.7 79.6 62.5 63.3

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Female, 1975-2014, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 24.8 26.0 24.8 25.3 17.7 18.0
1976 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.7 19.1 19.0
1977 28.1 28.6 28.1 28.2 20.1 20.1
1978 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 21.6 21.3
1979 31.6 31.4 31.6 31.4 22.4 22.5
1980 32.4 32.9 32.4 33.2 24.2 23.9
1981 35.5 34.4 35.5 35.1 25.1 25.2
1982 37.7 36.1 37.7 37.0 26.7 26.7
1983 39.1 37.8 39.1 38.6 28.3 28.3
1984 39.6 39.6 39.6 40.2 29.3 29.4
1985 40.9 41.5 40.9 41.9 30.8 30.6
1986 42.9 43.5 42.9 43.6 31.8 31.9
1987 45.5 45.6 45.5 45.4 33.0 33.2
1988 47.7 47.8 47.7 47.3 34.6 34.6
1989 47.2 48.4 47.2 48.0 36.3 36.0
1990 49.0 49.1 49.0 48.7 37.3 37.5
1991 50.6 49.8 50.6 49.5 38.1 38.2
1992 51.0 50.5 51.0 50.2 39.2 39.0
1993 50.6 51.1 50.6 51.0 40.0 39.8
1994 51.6 51.8 51.6 51.7 40.3 40.6
1995 52.4 52.6 52.4 52.5 41.0 40.9
1996 53.0 53.3 53.0 53.3 41.2 41.1
1997 54.9 54.0 54.9 54.1 41.5 41.3
1998 55.0 54.1 55.0 54.2 41.7 41.5
1999 54.4 54.2 54.4 54.3 40.9 41.7
2000 53.2 54.4 53.2 54.5 42.1 41.9
2001 53.4 54.5 53.4 54.6 42.0 42.2
2002 54.2 54.6 54.2 54.7 42.6 42.4
2003 55.6 54.8 55.6 54.8 42.3 42.2
2004 53.7 54.9 53.7 54.9 42.0 42.0
2005 55.8 55.0 55.8 55.1 41.7 41.8
2006 55.4 55.1 55.3 55.2 41.4 41.5
2007 56.1 55.3 56.0 55.3 41.3 41.3
2008 54.3 54.5 54.2 54.4 40.4 40.5
2009 54.2 53.7 54.1 53.5 40.0 39.8
2010 52.2 52.9 52.1 52.6 39.2 39.0
2011 51.5 52.1 51.3 51.7 38.2 38.2
2012 50.6 51.3 50.3 50.8 37.6 37.5
2013 50.7 50.6 50.2 50.0 36.6 36.8
2014 50.8 49.9 49.5 49.1 36.0 36.1

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Female, 1975-2014, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 24.7 28.8 24.7 28.8 17.3 17.4
1976 28.6 30.0 28.6 30.0 18.5 18.6
1977 33.9 31.3 33.9 31.3 19.9 19.7
1978 31.5 32.6 31.5 32.6 20.7 21.0
1979 34.1 34.0 34.1 34.0 22.2 22.3
1980 38.3 35.4 38.3 35.4 24.6 23.7
1981 37.4 36.9 37.4 36.9 25.1 25.2
1982 35.7 38.5 35.7 38.5 26.3 26.8
1983 39.5 40.1 39.5 40.1 28.7 27.8
1984 44.8 41.8 44.8 41.8 28.0 28.9
1985 46.0 43.6 46.0 43.6 29.6 30.0
1986 48.7 45.4 48.7 45.4 31.0 31.1
1987 43.3 47.3 43.3 47.3 32.5 32.2
1988 48.1 49.3 48.1 49.3 33.5 33.4
1989 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 34.9 34.7
1990 52.1 53.6 52.1 53.6 36.5 35.9
1991 57.0 53.9 57.0 53.9 37.2 37.3
1992 56.1 54.2 56.1 54.2 38.6 38.7
1993 52.5 54.6 52.5 54.6 37.7 38.8
1994 56.5 54.9 56.5 54.9 38.6 38.9
1995 50.1 55.2 50.1 55.3 38.8 39.1
1996 55.5 55.6 55.5 55.6 39.1 39.2
1997 50.5 55.9 50.5 55.9 40.5 39.4
1998 58.3 56.3 58.3 56.3 40.7 39.5
1999 58.9 56.6 58.9 56.7 40.0 39.7
2000 57.5 57.0 57.5 57.0 39.6 39.8
2001 57.7 57.3 57.7 57.4 38.8 40.0
2002 60.6 57.7 60.6 57.7 40.2 40.1
2003 55.7 58.1 55.7 58.1 40.2 40.2
2004 57.0 58.4 57.0 58.4 39.9 40.4
2005 59.4 58.8 59.4 58.8 40.1 39.6
2006 59.8 59.1 59.7 59.2 39.1 38.8
2007 56.7 58.1 56.5 58.0 38.1 38.1
2008 56.2 57.1 56.0 56.9 36.9 37.3
2009 58.6 56.1 58.3 55.8 35.9 36.6
2010 54.9 55.1 54.6 54.7 36.3 35.9
2011 52.7 54.2 52.3 53.6 35.4 35.2
2012 56.4 53.2 55.8 52.5 34.7 34.5
2013 51.6 52.3 50.9 51.5 34.1 33.8
2014 50.2 51.4 48.8 50.5 32.8 33.2

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Lung and Bronchus, All Ages, 1975-2014

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male2008-14-2.8*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2009-14-3.4*
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2011-14-3.6*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male1998-14-2.8*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male1998-14-2.9*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2004-14-3.5*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female2007-14-1.5*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female2007-14-1.7*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2007-14-1.9*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female2006-14-1.7*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female2006-14-2.0*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female2004-14-1.9*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.4, January 2017, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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