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Figure 15.2

CSR Figure 15.2: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex (Ages <65)


Figure 15.2

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Male, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 39.1 40.1 39.1 40.0 32.2 32.3
1976 39.6 40.0 39.6 39.9 32.6 32.5
1977 39.5 39.8 39.5 39.8 32.5 32.6
1978 40.8 39.7 40.8 39.7 33.1 32.8
1979 39.7 39.6 39.7 39.6 32.9 33.0
1980 40.4 39.5 40.4 39.5 33.1 33.2
1981 40.0 39.4 40.0 39.4 32.9 33.0
1982 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 32.7 32.8
1983 38.4 39.2 38.4 39.2 32.1 32.6
1984 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.1 32.5 32.4
1985 39.5 38.9 39.5 39.0 32.4 32.2
1986 38.1 38.8 38.1 38.9 32.0 32.0
1987 38.3 38.7 38.3 38.8 32.3 31.8
1988 38.1 37.4 38.1 37.4 31.8 31.6
1989 35.7 36.1 35.7 36.1 31.0 31.4
1990 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.9 30.9 31.2
1991 34.1 33.7 34.1 33.7 29.8 30.0
1992 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 28.7 28.9
1993 30.8 31.4 30.8 31.4 28.2 27.8
1994 29.8 30.4 29.8 30.3 27.0 26.8
1995 28.5 29.3 28.5 29.3 25.7 25.8
1996 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.3 25.1 24.8
1997 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.3 23.7 23.9
1998 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.4 22.9 23.0
1999 25.8 25.5 25.8 25.5 22.0 22.2
2000 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.6 21.7 21.6
2001 25.0 23.8 25.0 23.8 21.1 21.0
2002 23.1 23.0 23.1 22.9 20.4 20.5
2003 22.4 22.2 22.4 22.1 19.7 19.7
2004 21.0 21.5 21.0 21.4 19.0 19.0
2005 21.2 20.7 21.2 20.7 18.6 18.3
2006 20.3 20.0 20.3 19.9 17.7 17.6
2007 19.7 19.3 19.6 19.3 16.7 17.0
2008 17.9 18.7 17.9 18.6 16.3 16.4
2009 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.7 15.8
2010 16.7 17.4 16.7 17.3 15.0 15.2
2011 17.0 16.8 17.0 16.7 14.6 14.6
2012 16.1 16.3 16.0 16.2 14.1 14.1
2013 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.6 13.7 13.6
2014 15.1 15.2 14.7 15.1 13.2 13.1

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Male, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 66.6 68.4 66.6 68.4 54.2 54.0
1976 71.4 69.8 71.4 69.8 54.9 55.5
1977 72.0 71.2 72.0 71.2 57.7 57.1
1978 72.7 72.7 72.7 72.7 58.5 58.7
1979 72.9 74.2 72.9 74.2 57.4 58.4
1980 79.3 75.8 79.3 75.8 57.1 58.2
1981 74.8 77.4 74.8 77.4 58.3 57.9
1982 78.4 79.0 78.4 79.0 58.5 57.7
1983 79.6 80.6 79.6 80.6 57.5 57.5
1984 84.9 82.3 84.9 82.3 59.4 57.2
1985 76.8 79.5 76.8 79.5 58.0 57.0
1986 76.2 76.8 76.2 76.8 56.8 56.7
1987 70.5 74.2 70.5 74.2 55.5 56.5
1988 72.2 71.7 72.2 71.7 54.3 56.2
1989 71.2 69.3 71.2 69.3 55.7 56.0
1990 63.7 66.9 63.7 67.0 57.0 55.8
1991 70.9 64.7 70.9 64.7 53.0 53.4
1992 66.0 62.5 66.0 62.5 51.4 51.2
1993 59.3 60.4 59.3 60.4 49.3 49.1
1994 57.2 58.3 57.2 58.4 46.8 47.0
1995 57.3 56.3 57.3 56.4 45.2 45.1
1996 53.8 54.4 53.8 54.5 43.9 43.2
1997 51.8 52.6 51.8 52.6 41.0 41.4
1998 50.9 50.8 50.9 50.9 39.7 39.7
1999 49.7 49.1 49.7 49.1 37.4 38.0
2000 49.0 47.4 49.0 47.5 35.8 36.4
2001 44.2 45.8 44.2 45.9 33.8 34.9
2002 41.6 44.3 41.6 44.3 34.2 33.5
2003 46.8 42.8 46.8 42.8 32.2 32.1
2004 37.6 40.6 37.6 40.6 31.5 30.7
2005 35.5 38.6 35.5 38.5 29.6 29.2
2006 36.0 36.7 36.0 36.5 28.0 27.8
2007 35.7 34.8 35.6 34.7 26.3 26.5
2008 35.2 33.1 35.1 32.9 24.6 25.2
2009 33.1 31.4 33.0 31.2 23.8 24.0
2010 27.9 29.8 27.7 29.6 23.0 22.8
2011 28.2 28.3 28.0 28.0 21.3 21.7
2012 29.5 26.9 29.1 26.6 20.8 20.6
2013 24.9 25.6 24.6 25.2 20.1 19.6
2014 22.7 24.3 22.1 23.9 18.5 18.7

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, White, Female, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.7 10.9 11.0
1976 17.5 17.3 17.5 17.3 11.4 11.5
1977 17.7 18.0 17.7 18.0 12.0 11.9
1978 19.7 18.7 19.7 18.6 12.7 12.4
1979 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.3 12.8 12.8
1980 19.1 20.2 19.1 20.0 13.4 13.3
1981 21.0 20.9 21.0 20.7 13.7 13.9
1982 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.5 14.5 14.4
1983 22.7 22.0 22.7 22.2 15.0 14.9
1984 21.4 22.2 21.4 22.4 15.1 15.2
1985 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.6 15.6 15.4
1986 22.9 22.7 22.9 22.8 15.5 15.7
1987 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 15.9 16.0
1988 24.1 23.2 24.1 23.2 16.4 16.2
1989 22.9 23.5 22.9 23.5 16.5 16.5
1990 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.7 16.6 16.8
1991 23.9 23.4 23.9 23.3 16.4 16.5
1992 23.2 23.0 23.2 23.0 16.3 16.3
1993 21.9 22.6 21.9 22.6 16.2 16.0
1994 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.3 15.8 15.8
1995 21.8 22.0 21.8 21.9 15.8 15.5
1996 21.2 21.6 21.2 21.6 15.5 15.3
1997 21.7 21.3 21.7 21.3 15.0 15.0
1998 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.0 14.8 14.8
1999 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.7 14.1 14.6
2000 20.7 20.3 20.7 20.4 14.3 14.3
2001 19.7 20.0 19.7 20.0 14.2 14.1
2002 20.2 19.7 20.2 19.7 14.0 13.9
2003 19.6 19.2 19.6 19.2 13.6 13.7
2004 18.3 18.7 18.3 18.7 13.3 13.3
2005 18.0 18.2 18.0 18.2 12.9 12.9
2006 17.5 17.7 17.5 17.7 12.6 12.6
2007 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 12.4 12.2
2008 17.0 16.8 17.0 16.7 11.7 11.9
2009 16.7 16.3 16.7 16.3 11.5 11.6
2010 15.1 15.9 15.0 15.8 11.1 11.3
2011 15.2 15.5 15.1 15.4 10.8 11.0
2012 14.7 15.1 14.6 15.0 10.7 10.7
2013 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.5 10.4 10.4
2014 15.1 14.3 14.7 14.1 10.3 10.1

Rates per 100,000 for Lung and Bronchus, Black, Female, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 16.8 19.3 16.8 19.2 11.4 11.7
1976 22.4 20.1 22.4 20.1 12.3 12.4
1977 21.4 21.0 21.4 21.0 14.0 13.2
1978 20.5 22.0 20.5 22.0 13.7 14.0
1979 24.0 23.0 24.0 23.0 14.9 14.9
1980 26.2 24.0 26.2 24.0 16.0 15.8
1981 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.1 16.6 16.8
1982 23.5 26.2 23.5 26.3 16.6 17.0
1983 24.7 27.4 24.7 27.5 17.6 17.3
1984 31.8 28.7 31.8 28.7 17.3 17.5
1985 29.7 30.0 29.7 30.0 17.8 17.7
1986 29.9 31.3 29.9 31.4 18.1 18.0
1987 27.6 30.8 27.6 30.9 18.8 18.2
1988 29.1 30.3 29.1 30.4 18.5 18.5
1989 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 18.3 18.7
1990 29.8 29.3 29.8 29.3 19.4 19.0
1991 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 18.4 18.7
1992 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.3 19.1 18.4
1993 27.5 27.9 27.5 27.9 17.7 18.0
1994 30.3 27.4 30.3 27.4 17.4 17.7
1995 25.3 26.9 25.3 26.9 17.4 17.4
1996 26.8 26.5 26.8 26.5 16.6 17.1
1997 24.0 26.1 24.0 26.0 17.0 16.8
1998 26.2 25.6 26.2 25.6 17.0 16.5
1999 25.6 25.2 25.6 25.1 15.9 16.3
2000 27.0 24.8 27.0 24.7 16.0 16.0
2001 25.3 24.4 25.3 24.3 15.2 15.7
2002 23.8 24.0 23.8 23.9 15.8 15.4
2003 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.5 15.4 15.2
2004 23.9 23.2 23.9 23.1 14.8 14.9
2005 24.8 22.8 24.8 22.7 15.0 14.7
2006 23.0 22.4 23.0 22.3 14.7 14.2
2007 23.0 22.1 23.0 21.9 13.6 13.7
2008 19.3 21.7 19.3 21.5 12.7 13.2
2009 23.1 21.3 23.0 21.2 12.8 12.8
2010 20.8 21.0 20.6 20.8 12.1 12.4
2011 19.6 20.6 19.5 20.5 12.0 12.0
2012 20.1 20.3 19.9 20.1 11.5 11.6
2013 18.5 19.9 18.3 19.8 11.3 11.2
2014 18.9 19.6 18.5 19.4 10.9 10.8

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Lung and Bronchus, Ages <65, 1975-2014

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male1987-14-3.4*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male1987-14-3.4*
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2002-14-3.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male2003-14-5.0*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male2003-14-5.2*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2004-14-4.9*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female2002-14-2.6*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female2002-14-2.7*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2003-14-2.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female1986-14-1.7*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female1986-14-1.7*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female2005-14-3.3*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.4, January 2017, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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