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Figure 23.2

CSR Figure 23.2: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Age and Race


Figure 23.2

Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.9 2.2 2.2
1976 13.9 13.4 13.9 13.4 2.3 2.2
1977 14.4 13.8 14.4 13.8 2.3 2.3
1978 14.8 14.3 14.8 14.3 2.2 2.3
1979 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.8 2.2 2.3
1980 14.7 15.3 14.7 15.3 2.3 2.3
1981 16.0 15.9 16.0 15.9 2.3 2.3
1982 15.8 16.4 15.8 16.4 2.3 2.3
1983 16.6 17.0 16.6 17.0 2.4 2.4
1984 16.2 17.6 16.2 17.6 2.4 2.4
1985 17.7 18.3 17.7 18.3 2.3 2.4
1986 18.3 18.9 18.3 18.9 2.5 2.4
1987 21.1 19.6 21.1 19.6 2.4 2.4
1988 22.3 20.3 22.3 20.3 2.5 2.5
1989 24.1 24.9 24.1 24.9 2.6 2.6
1990 29.0 30.7 29.0 30.7 2.6 2.6
1991 39.4 37.8 39.4 37.7 2.5 2.5
1992 49.5 46.5 49.5 46.4 2.4 2.5
1993 49.0 47.9 49.0 47.9 2.3 2.4
1994 46.9 49.3 46.9 49.3 2.3 2.3
1995 48.2 50.9 48.2 50.9 2.2 2.2
1996 52.0 52.4 52.0 52.4 2.1 2.1
1997 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 1.9 2.0
1998 53.1 55.7 53.1 55.7 1.9 1.9
1999 58.8 57.4 58.8 57.4 1.7 1.7
2000 59.8 59.1 59.8 59.2 1.7 1.6
2001 62.7 60.9 62.7 61.0 1.6 1.6
2002 64.0 61.0 64.0 61.0 1.6 1.6
2003 59.8 61.1 59.8 61.1 1.6 1.6
2004 60.5 61.2 60.5 61.1 1.5 1.6
2005 55.5 61.3 55.5 61.2 1.5 1.5
2006 62.7 61.4 62.6 61.2 1.6 1.5
2007 64.2 61.5 64.0 61.3 1.5 1.5
2008 60.4 61.5 60.1 61.3 1.5 1.5
2009 60.6 61.6 60.1 61.3 1.4 1.5
2010 57.0 56.3 56.4 55.7 1.5 1.5
2011 55.4 51.5 54.7 50.7 1.4 1.4
2012 43.9 47.1 43.2 46.0 1.4 1.4
2013 42.6 43.0 41.6 41.8 1.4 1.4
2014 39.7 39.3 38.1 38.0 1.4 1.4

Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2014, Ages <65

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 26.8 27.9 26.8 27.9 6.6 6.6
1976 29.5 28.5 29.5 28.5 6.9 6.7
1977 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 6.9 6.7
1978 26.8 29.7 26.8 29.7 6.8 6.7
1979 26.4 30.3 26.4 30.3 6.6 6.8
1980 33.8 30.9 33.8 30.9 6.6 6.8
1981 34.7 31.5 34.7 31.5 7.1 6.8
1982 31.5 32.2 31.5 32.2 6.6 6.9
1983 34.0 32.8 34.0 32.8 7.0 6.9
1984 37.2 33.5 37.2 33.5 6.7 6.9
1985 31.6 34.1 31.6 34.2 7.2 6.9
1986 34.1 34.8 34.1 34.8 6.6 7.0
1987 36.1 35.5 36.1 35.6 6.7 7.0
1988 34.9 36.3 34.9 36.3 7.0 7.0
1989 37.3 37.0 37.3 37.0 7.1 7.1
1990 44.8 46.7 44.8 46.7 7.4 7.1
1991 57.5 59.0 57.5 58.9 7.1 7.1
1992 78.8 74.5 78.8 74.4 7.7 7.2
1993 94.8 94.0 94.8 93.9 7.0 7.0
1994 96.1 96.6 96.1 96.5 6.8 6.8
1995 100.3 99.2 100.3 99.1 6.7 6.6
1996 101.2 101.8 101.2 101.9 6.5 6.4
1997 98.6 104.6 98.6 104.7 6.3 6.2
1998 105.0 107.4 105.0 107.6 6.3 6.0
1999 113.5 110.3 113.5 110.6 5.8 5.9
2000 116.0 113.3 116.0 113.7 5.4 5.7
2001 115.4 116.3 115.4 116.8 5.3 5.5
2002 118.2 115.6 118.2 115.7 5.3 5.4
2003 117.0 114.8 117.0 114.7 5.3 5.2
2004 107.1 114.0 107.1 113.6 4.8 5.1
2005 107.5 113.3 107.5 112.6 4.8 4.9
2006 110.6 112.5 110.1 111.5 4.6 4.8
2007 121.0 111.8 119.9 110.5 4.5 4.6
2008 113.2 111.0 111.6 109.5 4.5 4.5
2009 112.5 110.3 110.5 108.5 4.5 4.4
2010 108.2 109.6 105.8 107.5 4.4 4.3
2011 107.4 108.8 104.5 106.5 4.3 4.1
2012 94.2 97.6 91.2 94.3 3.9 4.0
2013 89.0 87.4 85.4 83.5 3.9 3.9
2014 78.5 78.4 73.7 74.0 3.9 3.8

Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2014, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 639.3 631.2 639.3 631.2 214.9 218.2
1976 674.0 648.3 674.0 648.3 220.8 220.0
1977 680.6 665.8 680.6 665.8 220.6 221.7
1978 671.0 683.8 671.0 683.8 226.8 223.4
1979 708.0 702.2 708.0 702.2 228.2 225.2
1980 729.2 721.2 729.2 721.2 227.4 227.0
1981 743.2 740.6 743.2 740.6 227.5 228.7
1982 740.0 760.6 740.0 760.6 229.8 230.5
1983 762.1 781.2 762.1 781.2 233.2 232.4
1984 759.1 802.3 759.1 802.3 233.5 234.2
1985 784.8 823.9 784.8 823.9 231.3 236.0
1986 815.4 846.2 815.4 846.1 239.7 237.9
1987 919.0 869.0 919.0 869.0 241.3 239.7
1988 943.8 892.5 943.8 892.4 247.1 247.4
1989 990.2 1025.7 990.2 1025.7 255.2 255.3
1990 1167.6 1178.7 1167.6 1178.8 264.0 263.5
1991 1440.5 1354.7 1440.5 1354.7 271.4 271.9
1992 1544.7 1556.8 1544.7 1557.0 270.3 270.6
1993 1279.3 1310.9 1279.3 1310.7 270.8 269.3
1994 1054.7 1103.8 1054.7 1103.4 266.0 268.0
1995 967.8 929.4 967.8 928.9 256.9 256.4
1996 947.7 945.6 947.7 945.6 246.4 245.3
1997 972.0 962.2 972.0 962.6 234.6 234.7
1998 957.3 979.1 957.3 979.8 223.4 224.5
1999 1010.6 996.2 1010.6 997.4 216.9 216.6
2000 1007.0 1013.7 1007.0 1015.3 208.3 209.0
2001 1014.2 986.5 1014.2 987.2 202.1 201.7
2002 980.6 960.1 980.6 959.8 197.5 194.6
2003 903.4 934.4 903.4 933.2 187.0 187.8
2004 867.8 909.4 867.8 907.4 179.5 181.2
2005 821.5 885.0 821.5 882.2 174.2 174.9
2006 903.4 861.3 901.1 857.8 165.8 168.7
2007 912.1 838.2 907.6 834.0 165.6 162.8
2008 807.0 815.8 801.0 810.9 158.3 157.1
2009 787.0 793.9 779.2 788.4 151.1 151.6
2010 757.9 772.7 748.7 766.6 148.6 146.3
2011 716.9 694.1 706.4 682.8 142.7 141.2
2012 583.2 623.5 571.5 608.1 133.5 136.2
2013 562.4 560.1 546.3 541.6 132.5 133.8
2014 514.8 503.2 490.2 482.4 132.0 131.4

Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2014, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 931.2 949.9 931.2 949.8 394.0 391.6
1976 910.9 969.0 910.9 969.0 392.2 399.7
1977 1057.2 988.6 1057.2 988.6 398.7 408.0
1978 986.4 1008.5 986.4 1008.5 416.1 416.4
1979 1098.9 1028.9 1098.9 1028.9 422.9 425.0
1980 1041.4 1049.7 1041.4 1049.7 445.0 433.8
1981 1041.9 1070.9 1041.9 1070.9 454.4 442.8
1982 1109.8 1092.5 1109.8 1092.5 447.7 452.0
1983 1118.4 1114.5 1118.4 1114.6 462.5 461.3
1984 1158.1 1137.0 1158.1 1137.1 475.1 470.9
1985 1130.0 1160.0 1130.0 1160.0 482.7 480.6
1986 1098.3 1183.4 1098.3 1183.5 487.4 490.6
1987 1249.5 1207.3 1249.5 1207.4 499.0 500.7
1988 1263.8 1231.6 1263.8 1231.8 502.3 511.1
1989 1259.3 1256.5 1259.3 1256.6 518.5 528.7
1990 1450.9 1510.8 1450.9 1510.5 565.6 547.0
1991 1894.1 1816.5 1894.1 1815.6 570.2 565.9
1992 2070.9 2184.2 2070.9 2182.4 578.7 585.5
1993 2081.0 1984.1 2081.0 1985.4 599.1 605.7
1994 1828.4 1802.3 1828.4 1806.2 585.9 590.3
1995 1565.1 1637.2 1565.1 1643.1 572.5 575.3
1996 1556.9 1603.0 1556.9 1607.2 579.2 560.7
1997 1591.0 1569.5 1591.0 1572.0 544.2 546.4
1998 1577.0 1536.7 1577.0 1537.6 532.4 532.6
1999 1542.0 1504.6 1542.0 1504.0 514.8 519.0
2000 1530.4 1473.1 1530.4 1471.1 507.8 505.8
2001 1402.0 1442.3 1402.0 1438.9 499.7 493.0
2002 1489.0 1412.2 1489.0 1407.4 477.8 473.3
2003 1278.5 1382.7 1278.5 1376.6 441.0 454.5
2004 1324.1 1353.8 1324.1 1346.5 433.7 436.4
2005 1269.4 1325.5 1269.4 1317.0 417.8 419.0
2006 1279.2 1297.8 1273.0 1288.2 393.5 402.3
2007 1305.8 1270.7 1293.1 1260.0 403.0 386.3
2008 1263.1 1244.1 1244.8 1232.4 357.6 370.9
2009 1202.3 1218.1 1179.3 1205.5 359.7 356.2
2010 1125.9 1114.1 1099.0 1091.6 350.0 342.0
2011 1054.6 1019.0 1024.7 988.5 318.5 322.3
2012 902.7 932.0 871.2 895.1 302.7 303.7
2013 899.2 852.5 858.5 810.6 282.3 286.2
2014 742.4 779.7 694.1 734.0 273.7 269.7

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Prostate, Male, 1975-2014

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <652009-14-8.6*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <652009-14-9.1*
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <652000-14-1.1*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <652011-14-10.4*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <652011-14-11.4*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <651992-14-2.9*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+2010-14-10.2*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+2010-14-10.9*
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+2012-14-1.8
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+2009-14-8.5*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+2009-14-9.4*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+2010-14-5.8*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.4, January 2017, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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