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Figure 2.3
Figure 2.3
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
All Cancer Sites Combined, Ages 65 and Over, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2494.5 | 2510.0 | 2494.5 | 2510.0 | 1403.0 | 1404.8 |
| 1976 | 2570.9 | 2546.6 | 2570.9 | 2546.6 | 1427.1 | 1422.7 |
| 1977 | 2598.9 | 2583.7 | 2598.9 | 2583.7 | 1437.2 | 1440.8 |
| 1978 | 2620.3 | 2621.4 | 2620.3 | 2621.4 | 1460.1 | 1459.2 |
| 1979 | 2682.1 | 2659.6 | 2682.1 | 2659.6 | 1476.5 | 1477.8 |
| 1980 | 2719.9 | 2698.4 | 2719.9 | 2698.4 | 1488.6 | 1485.8 |
| 1981 | 2746.9 | 2737.7 | 2746.9 | 2737.7 | 1483.7 | 1493.8 |
| 1982 | 2768.3 | 2777.6 | 2768.3 | 2777.6 | 1508.4 | 1501.9 |
| 1983 | 2797.6 | 2818.1 | 2797.6 | 2818.1 | 1518.6 | 1510.0 |
| 1984 | 2831.1 | 2859.2 | 2831.1 | 2859.2 | 1519.8 | 1518.2 |
| 1985 | 2818.5 | 2900.9 | 2818.5 | 2900.9 | 1523.7 | 1526.4 |
| 1986 | 2883.5 | 2943.2 | 2883.5 | 2943.2 | 1534.2 | 1534.7 |
| 1987 | 3052.8 | 2986.2 | 3052.8 | 2986.2 | 1536.9 | 1543.0 |
| 1988 | 3036.2 | 3029.7 | 3036.2 | 3029.7 | 1545.6 | 1551.3 |
| 1989 | 3086.0 | 3073.9 | 3086.0 | 3073.9 | 1560.0 | 1559.7 |
| 1990 | 3258.5 | 3252.9 | 3258.5 | 3252.9 | 1573.9 | 1568.1 |
| 1991 | 3530.3 | 3442.3 | 3530.3 | 3442.3 | 1577.8 | 1576.6 |
| 1992 | 3644.6 | 3642.8 | 3644.6 | 3642.8 | 1573.3 | 1585.2 |
| 1993 | 3339.9 | 3394.8 | 3339.9 | 3394.8 | 1572.6 | 1568.5 |
| 1994 | 3096.2 | 3163.7 | 3096.2 | 3163.7 | 1557.5 | 1551.9 |
| 1995 | 2986.4 | 2948.4 | 2986.4 | 2948.4 | 1546.8 | 1535.6 |
| 1996 | 2990.8 | 2975.9 | 2990.8 | 2975.9 | 1520.4 | 1519.4 |
| 1997 | 3020.5 | 3003.7 | 3020.5 | 3003.8 | 1497.4 | 1503.4 |
| 1998 | 3041.2 | 3031.8 | 3041.2 | 3031.8 | 1476.1 | 1487.6 |
| 1999 | 3056.0 | 3060.2 | 3056.0 | 3060.2 | 1477.2 | 1471.9 |
| 2000 | 3028.5 | 3034.0 | 3028.5 | 3034.0 | 1458.8 | 1456.4 |
| 2001 | 3048.5 | 3008.1 | 3048.5 | 3008.0 | 1437.2 | 1441.1 |
| 2002 | 2995.6 | 2982.4 | 2995.6 | 2982.2 | 1422.9 | 1416.9 |
| 2003 | 2914.4 | 2956.9 | 2914.4 | 2956.7 | 1390.3 | 1393.1 |
| 2004 | 2897.4 | 2931.6 | 2897.4 | 2931.4 | 1359.6 | 1369.7 |
| 2005 | 2849.0 | 2906.6 | 2849.0 | 2906.3 | 1353.6 | 1346.7 |
| 2006 | 2875.9 | 2881.7 | 2875.9 | 2881.4 | 1321.3 | 1324.1 |
| 2007 | 2943.3 | 2857.1 | 2938.8 | 2856.7 | 1305.4 | 1301.9 |
| 2008 | 2826.7 | 2832.7 | 2818.1 | 2832.2 | 1281.6 | 1280.1 |
| 2009 | 2765.3 | 2765.8 | 2752.7 | 2756.3 | 1256.2 | 1258.6 |
| 2010 | 2737.8 | 2700.5 | 2721.3 | 2682.5 | 1244.4 | 1237.5 |
| 2011 | 2654.3 | 2636.7 | 2634.3 | 2610.6 | 1219.3 | 1216.7 |
| 2012 | 2504.8 | 2574.5 | 2482.2 | 2540.7 | 1195.5 | 1196.3 |
| 2013 | 2478.6 | 2513.7 | 2447.3 | 2472.6 | 1172.2 | 1176.2 |
| 2014 | 2446.6 | 2454.3 | 2403.8 | 2406.4 | 1155.6 | 1156.5 |
| 2015 | 2446.7 | 2396.4 | 2372.8 | 2341.9 | 1136.2 | 1137.0 |
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2554.5 | 2736.9 | 2554.5 | 2736.8 | 1527.3 | 1544.1 |
| 1976 | 2718.3 | 2779.6 | 2718.3 | 2779.5 | 1584.7 | 1583.2 |
| 1977 | 2909.9 | 2822.9 | 2909.9 | 2822.9 | 1641.2 | 1623.3 |
| 1978 | 2781.1 | 2866.9 | 2781.1 | 2866.9 | 1662.1 | 1664.5 |
| 1979 | 2925.4 | 2911.7 | 2925.4 | 2911.6 | 1695.0 | 1706.6 |
| 1980 | 3011.7 | 2957.1 | 3011.7 | 2957.1 | 1765.7 | 1749.9 |
| 1981 | 3135.9 | 3003.2 | 3135.9 | 3003.2 | 1801.4 | 1794.2 |
| 1982 | 3008.1 | 3050.0 | 3008.1 | 3050.0 | 1839.8 | 1839.7 |
| 1983 | 3230.5 | 3097.6 | 3230.5 | 3097.6 | 1877.8 | 1886.3 |
| 1984 | 3130.2 | 3145.9 | 3130.2 | 3146.0 | 1919.9 | 1934.1 |
| 1985 | 3238.4 | 3195.0 | 3238.4 | 3195.0 | 1945.5 | 1961.0 |
| 1986 | 3233.6 | 3244.8 | 3233.6 | 3244.9 | 1979.4 | 1988.3 |
| 1987 | 3373.0 | 3295.4 | 3373.0 | 3295.5 | 2028.1 | 2015.9 |
| 1988 | 3324.0 | 3346.8 | 3324.0 | 3346.9 | 2032.9 | 2044.0 |
| 1989 | 3321.2 | 3399.0 | 3321.2 | 3399.1 | 2106.4 | 2072.4 |
| 1990 | 3550.3 | 3685.0 | 3550.3 | 3684.7 | 2136.3 | 2101.2 |
| 1991 | 4030.7 | 3995.0 | 4030.7 | 3994.3 | 2150.5 | 2130.4 |
| 1992 | 4267.3 | 4331.1 | 4267.3 | 4329.8 | 2124.4 | 2160.1 |
| 1993 | 4229.1 | 4132.3 | 4229.1 | 4133.3 | 2183.9 | 2190.1 |
| 1994 | 3982.7 | 3942.5 | 3982.7 | 3945.7 | 2137.3 | 2154.4 |
| 1995 | 3675.1 | 3761.5 | 3675.1 | 3766.7 | 2122.2 | 2119.3 |
| 1996 | 3579.6 | 3709.6 | 3579.6 | 3713.4 | 2103.9 | 2084.7 |
| 1997 | 3768.4 | 3658.5 | 3768.4 | 3660.8 | 2045.2 | 2050.7 |
| 1998 | 3676.9 | 3608.0 | 3676.9 | 3609.1 | 1990.3 | 2017.3 |
| 1999 | 3623.6 | 3558.2 | 3623.6 | 3558.0 | 1981.8 | 1984.4 |
| 2000 | 3504.3 | 3509.2 | 3504.3 | 3507.7 | 1956.1 | 1952.0 |
| 2001 | 3455.0 | 3460.8 | 3455.0 | 3458.1 | 1928.5 | 1920.2 |
| 2002 | 3385.1 | 3413.0 | 3385.1 | 3409.1 | 1871.9 | 1869.4 |
| 2003 | 3311.6 | 3366.0 | 3311.6 | 3360.9 | 1798.5 | 1820.1 |
| 2004 | 3416.1 | 3319.5 | 3416.1 | 3313.4 | 1769.1 | 1772.0 |
| 2005 | 3127.8 | 3273.8 | 3127.8 | 3266.5 | 1727.8 | 1725.2 |
| 2006 | 3164.5 | 3228.6 | 3164.5 | 3220.3 | 1674.0 | 1679.6 |
| 2007 | 3211.8 | 3184.1 | 3202.5 | 3174.7 | 1659.9 | 1635.2 |
| 2008 | 3258.4 | 3140.2 | 3239.6 | 3129.8 | 1588.5 | 1592.0 |
| 2009 | 3088.4 | 3096.9 | 3061.8 | 3085.6 | 1551.5 | 1550.0 |
| 2010 | 2967.6 | 2980.4 | 2933.5 | 2953.0 | 1534.5 | 1509.0 |
| 2011 | 2827.0 | 2868.3 | 2787.1 | 2826.1 | 1468.6 | 1469.2 |
| 2012 | 2752.0 | 2760.4 | 2702.7 | 2704.7 | 1427.8 | 1430.3 |
| 2013 | 2715.1 | 2656.6 | 2654.3 | 2588.5 | 1389.1 | 1392.6 |
| 2014 | 2520.8 | 2556.7 | 2449.9 | 2477.3 | 1351.4 | 1355.8 |
| 2015 | 2469.7 | 2460.6 | 2366.4 | 2370.9 | 1311.4 | 1320.0 |
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1383.0 | 1362.0 | 1383.0 | 1363.3 | 739.4 | 745.4 |
| 1976 | 1408.6 | 1387.7 | 1408.6 | 1388.7 | 759.4 | 753.5 |
| 1977 | 1414.8 | 1413.9 | 1414.8 | 1414.6 | 761.8 | 761.6 |
| 1978 | 1410.1 | 1440.6 | 1410.1 | 1441.0 | 769.6 | 769.9 |
| 1979 | 1454.5 | 1467.8 | 1454.5 | 1467.9 | 772.8 | 778.2 |
| 1980 | 1499.9 | 1495.5 | 1499.9 | 1495.2 | 789.5 | 786.6 |
| 1981 | 1532.4 | 1523.7 | 1532.4 | 1523.1 | 796.1 | 795.1 |
| 1982 | 1532.2 | 1552.4 | 1532.2 | 1551.5 | 805.4 | 803.7 |
| 1983 | 1563.2 | 1581.7 | 1563.2 | 1580.4 | 811.9 | 812.4 |
| 1984 | 1609.7 | 1611.6 | 1609.7 | 1609.9 | 826.2 | 821.2 |
| 1985 | 1660.5 | 1642.0 | 1660.5 | 1639.9 | 829.4 | 830.1 |
| 1986 | 1658.6 | 1673.0 | 1658.6 | 1670.5 | 840.4 | 839.1 |
| 1987 | 1724.2 | 1704.5 | 1724.2 | 1701.7 | 843.1 | 848.1 |
| 1988 | 1716.4 | 1713.6 | 1716.4 | 1733.4 | 852.4 | 857.3 |
| 1989 | 1724.6 | 1722.7 | 1724.6 | 1736.0 | 871.4 | 866.6 |
| 1990 | 1741.5 | 1731.9 | 1741.5 | 1738.7 | 876.5 | 876.0 |
| 1991 | 1772.6 | 1741.1 | 1772.6 | 1741.3 | 882.0 | 882.7 |
| 1992 | 1754.1 | 1750.3 | 1754.1 | 1743.9 | 888.7 | 889.5 |
| 1993 | 1736.8 | 1759.6 | 1736.8 | 1746.6 | 896.7 | 896.4 |
| 1994 | 1747.5 | 1769.0 | 1747.5 | 1749.2 | 900.6 | 903.3 |
| 1995 | 1751.7 | 1778.4 | 1751.7 | 1751.9 | 900.6 | 897.7 |
| 1996 | 1764.0 | 1787.8 | 1764.0 | 1780.8 | 895.2 | 892.0 |
| 1997 | 1816.0 | 1797.3 | 1816.0 | 1810.3 | 885.7 | 886.5 |
| 1998 | 1848.4 | 1806.9 | 1848.4 | 1840.3 | 886.2 | 890.3 |
| 1999 | 1819.7 | 1802.6 | 1819.7 | 1824.3 | 895.5 | 894.1 |
| 2000 | 1784.8 | 1798.4 | 1784.8 | 1808.4 | 899.6 | 898.0 |
| 2001 | 1816.2 | 1794.2 | 1816.2 | 1792.7 | 885.8 | 890.2 |
| 2002 | 1786.9 | 1789.9 | 1786.9 | 1777.1 | 885.6 | 882.5 |
| 2003 | 1753.0 | 1785.7 | 1753.0 | 1761.7 | 877.3 | 874.9 |
| 2004 | 1771.9 | 1781.5 | 1771.9 | 1763.4 | 866.1 | 867.3 |
| 2005 | 1755.5 | 1777.3 | 1755.5 | 1765.2 | 858.4 | 859.8 |
| 2006 | 1762.2 | 1773.2 | 1762.2 | 1766.9 | 851.7 | 852.4 |
| 2007 | 1767.1 | 1769.0 | 1764.4 | 1768.7 | 842.0 | 841.4 |
| 2008 | 1776.8 | 1764.8 | 1771.4 | 1770.5 | 831.9 | 830.5 |
| 2009 | 1793.1 | 1760.7 | 1784.9 | 1772.2 | 815.9 | 819.7 |
| 2010 | 1756.8 | 1756.5 | 1746.1 | 1757.9 | 813.0 | 809.1 |
| 2011 | 1750.9 | 1752.4 | 1737.7 | 1743.7 | 799.1 | 798.6 |
| 2012 | 1753.1 | 1748.3 | 1737.1 | 1729.6 | 788.8 | 788.2 |
| 2013 | 1741.0 | 1744.2 | 1718.9 | 1715.7 | 775.6 | 778.0 |
| 2014 | 1744.5 | 1740.1 | 1714.1 | 1701.8 | 767.7 | 767.9 |
| 2015 | 1728.4 | 1736.0 | 1676.1 | 1688.1 | 758.4 | 758.0 |
Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1340.8 | 1290.7 | 1340.8 | 1288.4 | 719.5 | 740.1 |
| 1976 | 1278.3 | 1311.3 | 1278.3 | 1309.4 | 765.5 | 752.7 |
| 1977 | 1348.0 | 1332.2 | 1348.0 | 1330.7 | 760.5 | 765.6 |
| 1978 | 1304.4 | 1353.5 | 1304.4 | 1352.3 | 774.3 | 778.8 |
| 1979 | 1350.3 | 1375.1 | 1350.3 | 1374.3 | 779.8 | 792.1 |
| 1980 | 1412.0 | 1397.0 | 1412.0 | 1396.6 | 818.1 | 805.7 |
| 1981 | 1416.5 | 1419.3 | 1416.5 | 1419.3 | 818.1 | 819.5 |
| 1982 | 1408.1 | 1442.0 | 1408.1 | 1442.4 | 836.4 | 833.5 |
| 1983 | 1504.6 | 1465.0 | 1504.6 | 1465.9 | 858.9 | 847.8 |
| 1984 | 1488.8 | 1488.4 | 1488.8 | 1489.7 | 866.8 | 862.3 |
| 1985 | 1529.3 | 1512.1 | 1529.3 | 1513.9 | 881.5 | 877.1 |
| 1986 | 1561.0 | 1536.2 | 1561.0 | 1538.5 | 896.8 | 892.1 |
| 1987 | 1569.7 | 1560.7 | 1569.7 | 1563.6 | 900.2 | 907.4 |
| 1988 | 1607.8 | 1585.6 | 1607.8 | 1589.0 | 924.0 | 922.9 |
| 1989 | 1527.5 | 1611.0 | 1527.5 | 1614.8 | 940.4 | 938.7 |
| 1990 | 1667.9 | 1636.7 | 1667.9 | 1641.1 | 954.6 | 954.8 |
| 1991 | 1666.8 | 1662.8 | 1666.8 | 1667.8 | 992.5 | 971.2 |
| 1992 | 1657.4 | 1667.1 | 1657.4 | 1671.2 | 970.9 | 987.8 |
| 1993 | 1608.7 | 1671.5 | 1608.7 | 1674.6 | 998.7 | 1004.7 |
| 1994 | 1644.8 | 1675.9 | 1644.8 | 1678.0 | 991.9 | 1001.8 |
| 1995 | 1653.1 | 1680.4 | 1653.1 | 1681.5 | 998.6 | 998.9 |
| 1996 | 1721.0 | 1684.8 | 1721.0 | 1684.9 | 994.3 | 996.0 |
| 1997 | 1701.5 | 1689.2 | 1701.5 | 1688.4 | 1007.7 | 993.1 |
| 1998 | 1716.8 | 1693.7 | 1716.8 | 1691.8 | 979.3 | 990.2 |
| 1999 | 1744.4 | 1698.1 | 1744.4 | 1695.3 | 996.8 | 987.3 |
| 2000 | 1669.2 | 1702.6 | 1669.2 | 1698.8 | 976.9 | 984.4 |
| 2001 | 1685.8 | 1707.1 | 1685.8 | 1702.2 | 974.0 | 981.5 |
| 2002 | 1796.8 | 1711.6 | 1796.8 | 1705.7 | 974.7 | 967.0 |
| 2003 | 1721.1 | 1716.1 | 1721.1 | 1709.2 | 961.2 | 952.7 |
| 2004 | 1711.5 | 1720.6 | 1711.5 | 1712.7 | 936.1 | 938.5 |
| 2005 | 1738.6 | 1725.1 | 1738.6 | 1716.2 | 918.0 | 924.6 |
| 2006 | 1733.2 | 1729.7 | 1733.2 | 1719.7 | 905.5 | 910.9 |
| 2007 | 1730.0 | 1734.2 | 1725.1 | 1723.3 | 903.1 | 897.4 |
| 2008 | 1762.3 | 1738.8 | 1752.0 | 1726.8 | 879.3 | 884.1 |
| 2009 | 1740.7 | 1743.4 | 1726.1 | 1730.3 | 865.3 | 871.0 |
| 2010 | 1716.1 | 1748.0 | 1696.4 | 1733.9 | 858.0 | 858.1 |
| 2011 | 1721.8 | 1752.6 | 1697.3 | 1737.4 | 857.2 | 845.4 |
| 2012 | 1760.4 | 1757.2 | 1730.3 | 1741.0 | 838.1 | 832.9 |
| 2013 | 1737.6 | 1709.2 | 1699.8 | 1675.6 | 823.6 | 820.5 |
| 2014 | 1598.2 | 1662.5 | 1554.4 | 1612.6 | 809.8 | 808.4 |
| 2015 | 1648.8 | 1617.1 | 1580.8 | 1552.0 | 786.2 | 796.4 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
All Sites, Ages 65+, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2008-15 | -2.4* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2008-15 | -2.7* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 2001-15 | -1.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 2009-15 | -3.8* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 2009-15 | -4.3* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2001-15 | -2.6* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 1998-15 | -0.2* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 2009-15 | -0.8* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2006-15 | -1.3* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 2012-15 | -2.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 2012-15 | -3.8* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 2001-15 | -1.5* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.6, February 2018, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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