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Figure 4.1

CSR Figure 4.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race


Figure 4.1

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 107.4 105.9 107.4 105.9 31.8 31.8
1976 104.8 105.4 104.8 105.4 32.2 31.9
1977 103.3 104.9 103.3 104.9 32.7 32.0
1978 103.6 104.4 103.6 104.4 31.9 32.1
1979 104.7 103.9 104.7 103.9 31.5 32.2
1980 105.1 103.4 105.1 103.4 31.9 32.2
1981 109.9 107.6 109.9 107.6 32.1 32.3
1982 109.9 112.0 109.9 112.0 32.3 32.4
1983 114.4 116.6 114.4 116.6 32.2 32.5
1984 119.9 121.4 119.9 121.4 32.9 32.6
1985 127.8 126.4 127.8 126.4 33.1 32.7
1986 130.4 131.5 130.4 131.5 32.9 32.7
1987 140.3 136.9 140.3 136.9 32.6 32.8
1988 136.3 136.6 136.3 136.6 33.1 32.9
1989 132.4 136.3 132.4 136.3 33.2 33.0
1990 136.3 135.9 136.3 135.9 33.0 33.1
1991 138.9 135.6 138.9 135.6 32.4 32.4
1992 135.7 135.3 135.7 135.3 31.4 31.8
1993 133.1 135.0 133.1 135.0 31.1 31.2
1994 135.7 134.6 135.7 134.7 30.6 30.6
1995 137.6 137.3 137.6 137.3 30.1 30.0
1996 138.3 140.1 138.3 140.0 29.0 28.9
1997 142.7 142.8 142.7 142.8 27.6 27.8
1998 146.6 145.7 146.6 145.6 27.0 26.8
1999 147.1 148.6 147.1 148.5 26.0 26.3
2000 143.0 145.0 143.0 145.0 26.2 25.8
2001 145.0 141.4 145.0 141.5 25.4 25.4
2002 141.3 138.0 141.3 138.1 25.0 24.9
2003 131.9 134.6 131.9 134.8 24.7 24.4
2004 132.1 131.3 132.1 131.5 23.9 24.0
2005 131.4 131.6 131.4 131.7 23.5 23.5
2006 130.5 132.0 130.5 131.9 23.0 23.1
2007 132.6 132.3 132.5 132.1 22.4 22.7
2008 131.8 132.6 131.6 132.3 22.0 22.3
2009 134.7 133.0 134.4 132.5 21.8 21.8
2010 131.2 133.3 130.8 132.7 21.3 21.4
2011 134.3 133.7 133.8 132.9 20.9 21.0
2012 133.4 134.0 132.7 133.1 20.7 20.7
2013 134.3 134.3 133.5 133.3 20.3 20.3
2014 134.9 134.7 133.7 133.5 20.0 19.9
2015 135.7 135.0 133.8 133.7 19.8 19.5

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 93.6 90.6 93.6 84.2 29.5 30.4
1976 85.7 89.2 85.7 86.1 30.5 30.9
1977 87.1 87.9 87.1 88.1 32.8 31.3
1978 86.1 86.5 86.1 90.1 32.1 31.7
1979 86.9 85.2 86.9 92.2 30.8 32.2
1980 89.5 89.0 89.5 94.3 31.7 32.6
1981 94.3 92.9 94.3 96.4 32.6 33.1
1982 93.6 97.0 93.6 98.6 33.7 33.5
1983 103.8 101.3 103.8 100.9 33.5 34.0
1984 102.4 105.8 102.4 103.2 35.9 34.4
1985 111.8 110.5 111.8 105.5 34.9 34.9
1986 115.3 115.4 115.3 107.9 35.4 35.4
1987 109.6 115.9 109.6 110.4 36.7 35.9
1988 119.0 116.4 119.0 112.9 37.8 36.4
1989 105.3 116.9 105.3 115.4 36.6 36.9
1990 118.9 117.5 118.9 118.1 38.0 37.4
1991 117.7 118.0 117.7 120.8 38.3 37.9
1992 124.2 118.6 124.2 121.1 37.1 38.4
1993 119.5 119.1 119.5 121.4 38.0 38.9
1994 122.9 119.6 122.9 121.7 37.7 38.3
1995 123.9 120.2 123.9 122.1 38.2 37.8
1996 124.5 120.7 124.5 122.4 37.1 37.2
1997 126.3 121.3 126.3 122.7 37.4 36.6
1998 126.2 121.9 126.2 123.1 35.5 36.1
1999 126.7 122.4 126.7 123.4 35.2 35.5
2000 119.2 123.0 119.2 123.7 34.4 35.0
2001 116.4 123.5 116.4 124.1 34.5 34.4
2002 124.3 124.1 124.3 124.4 34.1 33.9
2003 123.9 124.7 123.9 124.7 34.1 33.4
2004 124.4 125.2 124.4 125.1 32.3 32.9
2005 118.8 125.8 118.8 125.4 32.8 32.4
2006 125.6 126.4 125.6 125.7 31.6 31.9
2007 125.2 127.0 125.0 126.1 31.4 31.4
2008 129.1 127.5 128.5 126.4 31.0 30.9
2009 130.5 128.1 129.7 126.8 30.2 30.5
2010 123.8 128.7 122.8 127.1 30.2 30.0
2011 129.9 129.3 128.5 127.4 30.2 29.5
2012 135.0 129.9 133.3 127.8 29.4 29.1
2013 131.2 130.5 129.2 128.1 28.2 28.6
2014 130.0 131.1 127.5 128.5 28.1 28.2
2015 131.5 131.7 128.2 128.8 27.6 27.8

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Breast, Female, All Ages, 1975-2015

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White2004-150.3
Observed SEER Incidence, White2004-150.2
U.S. Mortality, White1998-15-1.8*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black1986-150.5*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black1991-150.3*
U.S. Mortality, Black1993-15-1.5*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.6, February 2018, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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