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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
1977 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
1979 | 38.6 | 38.9 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
1980 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
1981 | 40.0 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 39.5 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
1982 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 41.2 | 40.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
1983 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
1984 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 43.1 | 42.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
1985 | 44.3 | 43.9 | 44.3 | 43.9 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
1986 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
1987 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
1988 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
1989 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
1990 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
1991 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
1992 | 43.6 | 44.4 | 43.6 | 44.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
1993 | 43.2 | 44.0 | 43.2 | 44.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
1994 | 42.8 | 43.6 | 42.8 | 43.7 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
1995 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
1996 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
1997 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
1998 | 45.5 | 44.1 | 45.5 | 44.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
1999 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
2000 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
2001 | 44.8 | 44.5 | 44.8 | 44.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
2002 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
2003 | 44.3 | 44.8 | 44.3 | 44.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
2004 | 44.8 | 44.9 | 44.8 | 44.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2005 | 44.5 | 45.0 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
2006 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
2007 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 45.7 | 45.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
2008 | 45.7 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 45.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
2009 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 46.0 | 45.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
2010 | 45.2 | 45.7 | 45.0 | 45.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
2011 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
2012 | 45.1 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 45.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
2013 | 46.2 | 46.0 | 45.9 | 45.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
2014 | 46.0 | 46.2 | 45.6 | 45.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
2015 | 46.9 | 46.3 | 46.3 | 46.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1975 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 43.0 | 38.0 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
1976 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 |
1977 | 37.9 | 38.8 | 37.9 | 38.9 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
1978 | 40.0 | 39.3 | 40.0 | 39.4 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
1979 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
1980 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
1981 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 38.9 | 40.9 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
1982 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
1983 | 41.8 | 42.0 | 41.8 | 41.9 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
1984 | 44.7 | 42.5 | 44.7 | 42.4 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
1985 | 45.7 | 43.1 | 45.7 | 43.0 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
1986 | 45.6 | 43.6 | 45.6 | 43.5 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
1987 | 43.3 | 44.2 | 43.3 | 44.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
1988 | 43.0 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 44.6 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
1989 | 42.3 | 45.4 | 42.3 | 45.1 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
1990 | 49.1 | 46.0 | 49.1 | 45.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
1991 | 51.3 | 45.9 | 51.3 | 46.3 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
1992 | 46.8 | 45.9 | 46.8 | 46.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
1993 | 45.3 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 46.1 | 11.7 | 11.9 |
1994 | 47.7 | 45.8 | 47.7 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
1995 | 45.7 | 45.7 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
1996 | 44.4 | 45.7 | 44.4 | 45.8 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
1997 | 44.9 | 45.6 | 44.9 | 45.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
1998 | 47.3 | 45.6 | 47.3 | 45.7 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
1999 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
2000 | 45.0 | 45.5 | 45.0 | 45.5 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
2001 | 39.8 | 45.5 | 39.8 | 45.4 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
2002 | 41.7 | 45.4 | 41.7 | 45.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
2003 | 43.5 | 45.4 | 43.5 | 45.2 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
2004 | 48.1 | 45.3 | 48.1 | 45.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
2005 | 45.7 | 45.3 | 45.7 | 45.1 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
2006 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
2007 | 45.7 | 45.2 | 45.6 | 44.9 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
2008 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 45.2 | 44.8 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
2009 | 45.9 | 45.1 | 45.7 | 44.7 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
2010 | 44.6 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
2011 | 48.8 | 45.0 | 48.3 | 44.5 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
2012 | 42.8 | 45.0 | 42.3 | 44.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
2013 | 42.5 | 44.9 | 41.8 | 44.4 | 7.3 | 7.5 |
2014 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 45.8 | 44.3 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
2015 | 46.2 | 44.9 | 45.0 | 44.2 | 6.9 | 7.1 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1975 | 282.0 | 271.4 | 282.0 | 271.4 | 91.4 | 92.1 |
1976 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 272.4 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 |
1977 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 271.1 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 |
1978 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.6 |
1979 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
1980 | 280.2 | 283.9 | 280.2 | 283.9 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
1981 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 94.8 | 95.1 |
1982 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
1983 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 95.8 | 96.1 |
1984 | 320.8 | 321.8 | 320.8 | 321.8 | 97.5 | 96.6 |
1985 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 98.1 | 97.2 |
1986 | 353.1 | 358.3 | 353.1 | 358.3 | 97.5 | 97.7 |
1987 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 96.9 | 98.2 |
1988 | 375.5 | 377.0 | 375.5 | 377.0 | 98.8 | 98.7 |
1989 | 362.6 | 375.9 | 362.6 | 375.9 | 99.2 | 99.3 |
1990 | 374.3 | 374.9 | 374.3 | 374.9 | 98.5 | 97.8 |
1991 | 378.9 | 373.8 | 378.9 | 373.8 | 97.2 | 96.5 |
1992 | 376.9 | 372.8 | 376.9 | 372.8 | 94.5 | 95.1 |
1993 | 368.5 | 371.7 | 368.5 | 371.7 | 94.2 | 93.7 |
1994 | 378.9 | 378.0 | 378.9 | 378.0 | 92.5 | 92.4 |
1995 | 383.5 | 384.3 | 383.5 | 384.3 | 91.1 | 91.1 |
1996 | 384.9 | 390.8 | 384.9 | 390.8 | 88.3 | 88.1 |
1997 | 400.8 | 397.4 | 400.8 | 397.3 | 83.6 | 85.2 |
1998 | 411.3 | 404.1 | 411.3 | 404.0 | 82.5 | 82.4 |
1999 | 414.1 | 410.9 | 414.1 | 410.7 | 80.4 | 80.9 |
2000 | 402.3 | 417.8 | 402.3 | 417.6 | 80.6 | 79.5 |
2001 | 407.4 | 401.6 | 407.4 | 401.7 | 78.0 | 78.1 |
2002 | 397.4 | 386.0 | 397.4 | 386.3 | 77.3 | 76.7 |
2003 | 361.1 | 371.1 | 361.1 | 371.6 | 75.9 | 75.3 |
2004 | 360.5 | 356.7 | 360.5 | 357.4 | 74.4 | 74.0 |
2005 | 359.0 | 357.7 | 359.0 | 358.0 | 72.8 | 72.7 |
2006 | 354.3 | 358.7 | 354.3 | 358.6 | 71.3 | 71.4 |
2007 | 359.9 | 359.7 | 359.6 | 359.2 | 69.9 | 70.1 |
2008 | 357.3 | 360.6 | 356.7 | 359.8 | 68.2 | 68.9 |
2009 | 366.8 | 361.6 | 365.9 | 360.4 | 67.0 | 67.7 |
2010 | 356.5 | 362.6 | 355.4 | 361.0 | 66.5 | 66.5 |
2011 | 366.3 | 363.6 | 364.8 | 361.6 | 65.2 | 65.3 |
2012 | 364.4 | 364.6 | 362.6 | 362.2 | 64.1 | 64.1 |
2013 | 365.0 | 365.6 | 362.7 | 362.8 | 62.7 | 63.0 |
2014 | 367.7 | 366.6 | 364.4 | 363.4 | 62.1 | 61.9 |
2015 | 368.0 | 367.6 | 362.9 | 364.0 | 61.3 | 60.8 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1975 | 226.1 | 200.4 | 226.1 | 207.4 | 78.8 | 81.6 |
1976 | 210.6 | 206.9 | 210.6 | 212.8 | 83.5 | 82.9 |
1977 | 216.1 | 213.6 | 216.1 | 218.3 | 91.1 | 84.2 |
1978 | 207.0 | 220.5 | 207.0 | 223.9 | 86.5 | 85.6 |
1979 | 215.7 | 227.7 | 215.7 | 229.7 | 81.8 | 86.9 |
1980 | 225.1 | 235.1 | 225.1 | 235.6 | 86.3 | 88.3 |
1981 | 239.6 | 242.7 | 239.6 | 241.7 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
1982 | 239.1 | 250.6 | 239.1 | 247.9 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
1983 | 266.1 | 258.7 | 266.1 | 254.3 | 92.1 | 92.6 |
1984 | 253.6 | 267.1 | 253.6 | 260.9 | 97.2 | 94.1 |
1985 | 284.8 | 275.8 | 284.8 | 267.6 | 94.6 | 95.6 |
1986 | 297.8 | 284.8 | 297.8 | 274.5 | 94.6 | 97.2 |
1987 | 283.5 | 294.0 | 283.5 | 281.6 | 99.0 | 98.7 |
1988 | 318.1 | 303.6 | 318.1 | 288.9 | 103.4 | 100.3 |
1989 | 270.3 | 305.4 | 270.3 | 296.4 | 100.0 | 101.9 |
1990 | 301.7 | 307.3 | 301.7 | 304.0 | 106.1 | 103.6 |
1991 | 291.7 | 309.2 | 291.7 | 311.8 | 106.3 | 105.2 |
1992 | 327.0 | 311.1 | 327.0 | 319.9 | 102.7 | 106.9 |
1993 | 313.9 | 313.0 | 313.9 | 321.1 | 107.1 | 108.6 |
1994 | 319.6 | 314.9 | 319.6 | 322.4 | 105.9 | 107.2 |
1995 | 328.7 | 316.9 | 328.7 | 323.6 | 107.5 | 105.9 |
1996 | 334.1 | 318.8 | 334.1 | 324.9 | 103.6 | 104.6 |
1997 | 339.4 | 320.8 | 339.4 | 326.1 | 106.6 | 103.2 |
1998 | 332.8 | 322.8 | 332.8 | 327.4 | 100.7 | 101.9 |
1999 | 343.1 | 324.7 | 343.1 | 328.7 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
2000 | 313.4 | 326.7 | 313.4 | 329.9 | 98.3 | 99.4 |
2001 | 316.7 | 328.7 | 316.7 | 331.2 | 99.1 | 98.1 |
2002 | 340.8 | 330.8 | 340.8 | 332.5 | 97.3 | 96.9 |
2003 | 334.5 | 332.8 | 334.5 | 333.8 | 98.2 | 95.7 |
2004 | 324.3 | 334.8 | 324.3 | 335.1 | 92.6 | 94.5 |
2005 | 310.4 | 336.9 | 310.4 | 336.4 | 93.9 | 93.3 |
2006 | 335.9 | 339.0 | 335.9 | 337.7 | 91.2 | 92.1 |
2007 | 333.4 | 341.1 | 332.7 | 339.0 | 91.1 | 90.9 |
2008 | 348.3 | 343.2 | 346.7 | 340.3 | 90.5 | 89.8 |
2009 | 351.9 | 345.3 | 349.7 | 341.6 | 88.4 | 88.7 |
2010 | 331.3 | 347.4 | 328.5 | 342.9 | 88.1 | 87.5 |
2011 | 342.1 | 349.5 | 338.4 | 344.3 | 88.6 | 86.4 |
2012 | 376.4 | 351.7 | 371.6 | 345.6 | 85.7 | 85.3 |
2013 | 363.5 | 353.8 | 358.0 | 346.9 | 82.9 | 84.3 |
2014 | 348.3 | 356.0 | 341.6 | 348.3 | 81.8 | 83.2 |
2015 | 354.9 | 358.2 | 346.1 | 349.6 | 81.7 | 82.2 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Breast, Female, 1975-2015
Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
---|---|---|
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-15 | 0.3* |
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-15 | 0.2* |
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 2004-15 | -1.7* |
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1990-15 | -0.1 |
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-15 | -0.2 |
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1995-15 | -2.4* |
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-15 | 0.3 |
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-15 | 0.2 |
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1998-15 | -1.8* |
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1988-15 | 0.6* |
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-15 | 0.4* |
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-15 | -1.3* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.6, February 2018, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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