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Figure 23.1
Figure 23.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Race
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 92.2 | 91.1 | 92.2 | 91.1 | 29.1 | 29.5 |
| 1976 | 97.3 | 93.6 | 97.3 | 93.6 | 29.9 | 29.8 |
| 1977 | 98.6 | 96.2 | 98.6 | 96.2 | 29.9 | 30.0 |
| 1978 | 97.7 | 98.9 | 97.7 | 98.9 | 30.6 | 30.2 |
| 1979 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 30.8 | 30.5 |
| 1980 | 105.0 | 104.5 | 105.0 | 104.5 | 30.8 | 30.7 |
| 1981 | 107.9 | 107.5 | 107.9 | 107.5 | 30.8 | 30.9 |
| 1982 | 107.3 | 110.5 | 107.3 | 110.5 | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| 1983 | 110.8 | 113.5 | 110.8 | 113.5 | 31.6 | 31.4 |
| 1984 | 110.1 | 116.7 | 110.1 | 116.7 | 31.6 | 31.7 |
| 1985 | 114.7 | 120.0 | 114.7 | 120.0 | 31.3 | 31.9 |
| 1986 | 119.0 | 123.3 | 119.0 | 123.3 | 32.5 | 32.2 |
| 1987 | 134.6 | 126.8 | 134.6 | 126.8 | 32.6 | 32.4 |
| 1988 | 138.7 | 130.3 | 138.7 | 130.3 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| 1989 | 146.2 | 151.6 | 146.2 | 151.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| 1990 | 172.9 | 176.4 | 172.9 | 176.4 | 35.7 | 35.5 |
| 1991 | 216.6 | 205.2 | 216.6 | 205.2 | 36.5 | 36.6 |
| 1992 | 238.7 | 238.7 | 238.7 | 238.7 | 36.3 | 36.4 |
| 1993 | 204.7 | 208.8 | 204.7 | 208.8 | 36.3 | 36.1 |
| 1994 | 174.5 | 182.7 | 174.5 | 182.7 | 35.6 | 35.8 |
| 1995 | 164.8 | 159.8 | 164.8 | 159.8 | 34.4 | 34.3 |
| 1996 | 165.6 | 163.9 | 165.6 | 163.9 | 33.0 | 32.8 |
| 1997 | 170.4 | 168.1 | 170.4 | 168.1 | 31.3 | 31.4 |
| 1998 | 167.8 | 172.4 | 167.8 | 172.5 | 29.9 | 30.1 |
| 1999 | 179.6 | 176.9 | 179.6 | 177.0 | 28.9 | 28.8 |
| 2000 | 179.8 | 181.4 | 179.8 | 181.5 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| 2001 | 183.3 | 178.1 | 183.3 | 178.2 | 27.0 | 26.9 |
| 2002 | 180.1 | 175.0 | 180.1 | 174.9 | 26.4 | 26.0 |
| 2003 | 166.8 | 171.8 | 166.8 | 171.7 | 25.0 | 25.1 |
| 2004 | 162.9 | 168.7 | 162.9 | 168.6 | 24.0 | 24.3 |
| 2005 | 152.4 | 165.7 | 152.4 | 165.5 | 23.3 | 23.5 |
| 2006 | 168.8 | 162.7 | 168.8 | 162.5 | 22.3 | 22.7 |
| 2007 | 171.4 | 159.8 | 171.0 | 159.5 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| 2008 | 154.6 | 156.9 | 153.8 | 156.5 | 21.3 | 21.2 |
| 2009 | 152.5 | 154.1 | 151.3 | 153.7 | 20.3 | 20.5 |
| 2010 | 145.6 | 142.7 | 144.2 | 141.4 | 20.1 | 19.8 |
| 2011 | 139.1 | 132.0 | 137.4 | 130.2 | 19.3 | 19.1 |
| 2012 | 112.1 | 122.2 | 110.5 | 119.8 | 18.1 | 18.5 |
| 2013 | 108.2 | 113.1 | 106.0 | 110.3 | 18.0 | 17.9 |
| 2014 | 99.9 | 104.7 | 97.1 | 101.5 | 17.9 | 17.8 |
| 2015 | 105.6 | 96.9 | 100.8 | 93.4 | 17.7 | 17.7 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 141.1 | 143.9 | 141.1 | 143.9 | 55.5 | 55.3 |
| 1976 | 140.9 | 146.9 | 140.9 | 146.9 | 55.6 | 56.4 |
| 1977 | 159.2 | 149.9 | 159.2 | 150.0 | 56.4 | 57.4 |
| 1978 | 148.1 | 153.1 | 148.1 | 153.1 | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| 1979 | 161.9 | 156.3 | 161.9 | 156.3 | 59.2 | 59.6 |
| 1980 | 161.1 | 159.6 | 161.1 | 159.6 | 62.0 | 60.8 |
| 1981 | 162.0 | 162.9 | 162.0 | 162.9 | 63.6 | 61.9 |
| 1982 | 167.8 | 166.3 | 167.8 | 166.3 | 62.4 | 63.1 |
| 1983 | 171.1 | 169.8 | 171.1 | 169.8 | 64.6 | 64.3 |
| 1984 | 178.9 | 173.4 | 178.9 | 173.3 | 65.9 | 65.5 |
| 1985 | 170.4 | 177.0 | 170.4 | 177.0 | 67.3 | 66.8 |
| 1986 | 168.6 | 180.7 | 168.6 | 180.7 | 67.4 | 68.1 |
| 1987 | 189.4 | 184.5 | 189.4 | 184.4 | 68.9 | 69.4 |
| 1988 | 190.2 | 188.3 | 190.2 | 188.3 | 69.6 | 70.7 |
| 1989 | 191.8 | 192.3 | 191.8 | 192.2 | 71.7 | 72.9 |
| 1990 | 222.6 | 228.9 | 222.6 | 229.0 | 78.0 | 75.3 |
| 1991 | 289.6 | 272.4 | 289.6 | 272.9 | 78.2 | 77.7 |
| 1992 | 331.0 | 324.3 | 331.0 | 325.2 | 79.8 | 80.2 |
| 1993 | 347.5 | 319.4 | 347.5 | 320.1 | 81.9 | 82.7 |
| 1994 | 315.7 | 314.6 | 315.7 | 315.1 | 80.0 | 80.6 |
| 1995 | 286.0 | 309.9 | 286.0 | 310.2 | 78.2 | 78.6 |
| 1996 | 286.0 | 305.2 | 286.0 | 305.4 | 78.8 | 76.7 |
| 1997 | 288.3 | 300.7 | 288.3 | 300.7 | 74.3 | 74.7 |
| 1998 | 292.1 | 296.1 | 292.1 | 296.0 | 72.8 | 72.9 |
| 1999 | 296.2 | 291.7 | 296.2 | 291.4 | 70.1 | 71.0 |
| 2000 | 295.8 | 287.3 | 295.8 | 286.9 | 68.9 | 69.3 |
| 2001 | 279.5 | 283.0 | 279.5 | 282.4 | 67.8 | 67.5 |
| 2002 | 292.6 | 278.8 | 292.6 | 278.0 | 65.0 | 64.7 |
| 2003 | 265.1 | 274.6 | 265.1 | 273.7 | 60.4 | 62.0 |
| 2004 | 262.2 | 270.4 | 262.2 | 269.5 | 59.0 | 59.4 |
| 2005 | 255.9 | 266.4 | 255.9 | 265.3 | 57.0 | 56.9 |
| 2006 | 258.7 | 262.4 | 258.7 | 261.1 | 53.7 | 54.5 |
| 2007 | 271.1 | 258.4 | 269.8 | 257.1 | 54.9 | 52.3 |
| 2008 | 258.1 | 254.6 | 255.6 | 253.1 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| 2009 | 250.3 | 250.7 | 246.7 | 249.2 | 49.4 | 48.0 |
| 2010 | 237.3 | 233.9 | 232.7 | 230.5 | 48.1 | 46.0 |
| 2011 | 227.2 | 218.2 | 221.8 | 213.3 | 44.0 | 44.1 |
| 2012 | 196.6 | 203.5 | 191.0 | 197.3 | 41.6 | 42.2 |
| 2013 | 190.5 | 189.8 | 183.8 | 182.5 | 39.1 | 40.5 |
| 2014 | 165.9 | 177.1 | 159.1 | 168.9 | 38.0 | 38.8 |
| 2015 | 173.1 | 165.2 | 162.7 | 156.2 | 37.5 | 37.2 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Prostate, Male, All Ages, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White | 2009-15 | -7.4* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White | 2009-15 | -8.0* |
| U.S. Mortality, White | 2013-15 | -0.4 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black | 2009-15 | -6.7* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black | 2009-15 | -7.5* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black | 2001-15 | -4.2* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.6, February 2018, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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