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Figure 2.1

CSR Figure 2.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex


Figure 2.1

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 468.6 469.4 468.6 469.5 254.0 254.4
1976 482.0 476.1 482.0 476.2 257.5 256.8
1977 487.2 482.9 487.2 483.0 258.8 259.1
1978 489.7 489.8 489.7 489.9 261.6 261.5
1979 497.6 496.8 497.6 496.8 263.2 263.9
1980 505.2 503.9 505.2 503.9 265.0 264.5
1981 510.8 511.1 510.8 511.1 263.3 265.2
1982 512.5 518.5 512.5 518.4 266.3 265.8
1983 520.9 525.9 520.9 525.8 267.2 266.4
1984 527.7 533.4 527.7 533.3 267.6 267.1
1985 533.6 541.0 533.6 540.9 268.2 267.7
1986 542.9 548.7 542.9 548.6 268.8 268.4
1987 569.0 556.6 569.0 556.4 269.0 269.0
1988 565.0 564.6 565.0 564.3 269.5 269.7
1989 573.8 572.6 573.8 572.4 270.2 270.4
1990 599.4 600.6 599.4 601.2 271.5 271.0
1991 644.6 629.9 644.6 631.4 271.2 271.7
1992 663.9 660.7 663.9 663.2 268.9 269.6
1993 620.6 631.2 620.6 629.0 267.9 267.5
1994 588.0 603.0 588.0 596.6 264.7 265.5
1995 570.8 576.1 570.8 565.9 261.5 260.8
1996 574.7 575.8 574.7 570.5 256.8 256.1
1997 577.1 575.5 577.1 575.3 251.6 251.6
1998 576.9 575.1 576.9 580.0 247.6 249.0
1999 583.5 574.8 583.5 584.8 247.1 246.5
2000 585.1 574.5 585.1 582.3 243.4 243.9
2001 588.7 574.2 588.7 579.8 240.3 239.9
2002 582.2 573.9 582.2 577.3 237.6 235.9
2003 566.3 573.5 566.3 574.9 232.2 232.0
2004 565.0 573.2 565.0 572.4 226.6 228.2
2005 558.8 572.9 558.8 570.0 224.9 224.4
2006 565.5 572.6 565.5 567.5 220.0 220.7
2007 575.1 572.3 575.1 565.1 216.6 217.0
2008 556.2 558.5 555.4 553.3 213.2 213.4
2009 548.7 545.0 547.2 541.8 209.3 209.9
2010 539.4 531.9 537.1 530.5 207.2 206.4
2011 528.3 519.1 525.3 519.4 203.3 203.0
2012 499.4 506.6 495.9 508.6 199.9 199.6
2013 491.8 494.4 487.6 498.0 196.0 196.3
2014 488.6 491.8 482.8 487.6 193.5 193.1
2015 490.0 489.2 482.4 477.5 190.2 189.9
2016 487.0 486.5 474.1 467.5 186.3 186.7

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 525.4 532.8 525.4 532.8 320.5 322.5
1976 553.0 548.0 553.0 548.0 328.4 328.4
1977 577.7 563.6 577.7 563.6 337.9 334.4
1978 571.0 579.6 571.0 579.6 340.9 340.5
1979 589.8 596.1 589.8 596.1 344.7 346.7
1980 615.1 613.1 615.1 613.1 353.9 353.0
1981 634.4 630.6 634.4 630.6 358.6 359.5
1982 622.1 634.3 622.1 634.3 364.9 366.0
1983 646.3 638.0 646.3 638.0 369.3 369.7
1984 643.9 641.8 643.9 641.8 377.9 373.4
1985 643.8 645.6 643.8 645.6 377.8 377.1
1986 643.4 649.4 643.4 649.4 378.9 380.9
1987 666.3 653.2 666.3 653.2 383.2 384.7
1988 658.1 657.1 658.1 657.1 384.2 388.5
1989 661.2 661.0 661.2 661.0 395.3 392.4
1990 699.8 711.1 699.8 711.1 399.1 396.4
1991 765.7 764.9 765.7 765.0 395.9 395.4
1992 811.7 822.9 811.7 822.9 389.2 394.5
1993 821.5 802.1 821.5 802.1 394.8 393.6
1994 784.9 781.9 784.9 781.9 385.2 385.6
1995 752.3 762.2 752.3 762.1 379.0 377.9
1996 730.7 743.0 730.7 742.8 373.7 370.3
1997 744.4 735.3 744.4 735.2 363.2 362.9
1998 728.5 727.8 728.5 727.7 353.1 355.6
1999 729.4 720.3 729.4 720.3 349.2 348.4
2000 718.6 712.9 718.6 712.9 341.2 341.4
2001 705.1 705.6 705.1 705.6 334.1 334.6
2002 703.6 698.3 703.6 698.4 325.8 325.5
2003 687.5 691.2 687.5 691.3 314.6 316.7
2004 690.4 684.1 690.4 684.2 307.3 308.1
2005 650.3 677.1 650.3 677.2 300.3 299.7
2006 652.2 670.1 652.2 670.3 290.2 291.6
2007 674.7 663.2 674.7 663.5 286.6 283.7
2008 671.3 656.4 669.6 656.7 275.3 276.0
2009 648.6 638.3 645.2 636.0 268.9 268.5
2010 622.3 620.7 617.5 615.9 264.1 261.2
2011 599.7 603.6 593.6 596.4 253.6 254.2
2012 582.3 586.9 574.6 577.6 247.2 247.3
2013 570.3 570.7 561.3 559.3 240.3 240.6
2014 536.6 555.0 525.8 541.6 233.9 234.0
2015 534.0 539.6 520.4 524.5 226.6 227.7
2016 543.9 524.7 521.7 508.0 221.6 221.5

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 369.7 371.1 369.7 371.1 159.0 159.7
1976 373.3 370.3 373.3 370.3 161.7 160.5
1977 367.9 369.4 367.9 369.4 161.6 161.4
1978 367.9 368.5 367.9 368.6 162.5 162.3
1979 369.7 367.7 369.7 367.7 161.7 163.2
1980 373.4 373.9 373.4 373.9 164.2 164.1
1981 383.9 380.2 383.9 380.2 164.6 165.0
1982 383.3 386.6 383.3 386.6 166.1 166.0
1983 387.9 393.1 387.9 393.1 166.7 166.9
1984 399.5 399.7 399.5 399.7 169.0 167.8
1985 411.5 406.5 411.5 406.4 169.6 168.7
1986 409.2 413.3 409.2 413.2 170.0 169.7
1987 423.4 420.3 423.4 420.2 169.9 170.6
1988 418.0 420.8 418.0 420.7 170.9 171.5
1989 418.8 421.2 418.8 421.3 172.9 172.5
1990 424.8 421.7 424.8 421.8 172.9 173.4
1991 428.6 422.2 428.6 422.4 173.4 173.1
1992 423.5 422.7 423.5 422.9 172.6 172.8
1993 417.0 423.1 417.0 423.5 172.8 172.5
1994 423.3 423.6 423.3 424.0 172.6 172.2
1995 426.3 424.1 426.3 424.6 171.7 172.0
1996 428.4 431.4 428.4 430.6 169.8 169.9
1997 441.1 438.9 441.1 436.8 167.3 167.8
1998 446.7 446.5 446.7 443.0 165.4 165.8
1999 443.8 444.3 443.8 442.3 165.9 165.4
2000 438.2 442.1 438.2 441.6 166.0 165.0
2001 442.8 439.9 442.8 440.8 163.8 164.5
2002 441.4 437.7 441.4 440.1 162.6 162.3
2003 433.1 435.5 433.1 439.4 160.4 160.2
2004 433.9 435.8 433.9 438.6 157.4 158.0
2005 434.6 436.0 434.6 437.9 156.0 155.9
2006 435.0 436.2 435.0 437.2 154.5 153.9
2007 435.9 436.4 435.9 436.5 151.9 151.8
2008 439.4 436.6 438.8 435.7 149.4 149.8
2009 443.7 436.8 442.4 435.0 147.5 147.8
2010 435.4 437.1 433.6 434.3 145.8 145.8
2011 436.1 437.3 433.6 433.6 143.4 143.9
2012 435.7 437.5 432.6 432.9 142.0 142.0
2013 434.0 437.7 430.3 432.2 139.8 140.1
2014 440.3 437.9 435.2 431.4 138.5 138.2
2015 440.9 438.1 434.1 430.7 136.6 136.4
2016 436.0 438.4 424.7 430.0 134.7 134.6

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 356.9 343.2 356.9 344.3 174.2 177.2
1976 340.9 347.2 340.9 348.1 179.1 178.9
1977 352.6 351.2 352.6 351.9 181.6 180.7
1978 344.2 355.3 344.2 355.8 181.5 182.5
1979 359.3 359.4 359.3 359.7 182.7 184.4
1980 366.5 363.6 366.5 363.7 189.2 186.2
1981 363.0 367.8 363.0 367.7 187.5 188.1
1982 359.4 372.1 359.4 371.8 190.2 189.9
1983 382.2 376.4 382.2 375.9 193.2 191.8
1984 386.1 380.8 386.1 380.1 195.7 193.7
1985 388.7 385.2 388.7 384.3 196.3 195.7
1986 396.9 389.7 396.9 388.5 199.1 197.6
1987 394.2 394.2 394.2 392.8 199.9 199.6
1988 405.1 398.8 405.1 397.2 200.4 201.6
1989 385.2 403.4 385.2 401.6 200.9 203.6
1990 409.7 408.1 409.7 406.0 205.4 205.6
1991 412.8 412.8 412.8 410.5 207.4 207.7
1992 414.2 413.1 414.2 411.1 205.8 206.5
1993 404.7 413.3 404.7 411.6 206.3 205.4
1994 409.4 413.5 409.4 412.2 204.1 204.3
1995 405.3 413.8 405.3 412.8 204.5 203.1
1996 418.5 414.0 418.5 413.4 200.9 202.0
1997 412.2 414.2 412.2 413.9 202.5 200.9
1998 420.9 414.4 420.9 414.5 198.4 199.8
1999 422.9 414.7 422.9 415.1 197.5 198.7
2000 407.5 414.9 407.5 415.7 193.2 195.5
2001 403.4 415.1 403.4 416.3 192.1 192.4
2002 428.4 415.3 428.4 416.8 191.4 189.3
2003 414.4 415.6 414.4 417.4 188.8 186.3
2004 420.8 415.8 420.8 418.0 183.5 183.4
2005 422.9 416.0 422.9 418.6 180.9 180.5
2006 418.1 416.2 418.1 419.2 177.3 177.6
2007 416.9 416.5 416.9 419.7 175.5 174.8
2008 420.7 416.7 419.6 420.3 170.4 172.0
2009 426.4 416.9 424.2 420.9 167.4 169.3
2010 412.9 417.1 409.8 417.7 166.2 166.6
2011 421.0 417.4 416.8 414.6 166.1 163.9
2012 425.9 417.6 420.5 411.4 161.7 161.3
2013 411.7 417.8 405.5 408.3 158.5 158.7
2014 407.4 418.1 399.5 405.2 156.9 156.2
2015 410.7 418.3 400.7 402.2 152.5 153.7
2016 419.3 418.5 402.5 399.1 151.3 151.3

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
All Sites, All Ages, 1975-2015

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male2013-16-0.5
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2007-16-2.1*
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2000-16-1.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male2008-16-2.8*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male2008-16-3.2*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2001-16-2.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female2003-160.0
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female1998-16-0.2*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2001-16-1.3*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female1991-160.1
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female2009-16-0.8*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female1999-16-1.6*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.7, February 2019, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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