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Figure 2.3

CSR Figure 2.3: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex (Ages 65+)


Figure 2.3

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 2494.5 2510.1 2494.5 2510.1 1403.0 1404.8
1976 2570.9 2546.7 2570.9 2546.6 1427.1 1422.7
1977 2598.9 2583.8 2598.9 2583.8 1437.2 1440.8
1978 2620.3 2621.4 2620.3 2621.4 1460.1 1459.2
1979 2682.1 2659.6 2682.1 2659.6 1476.5 1477.8
1980 2719.9 2698.4 2719.9 2698.4 1488.6 1485.8
1981 2746.9 2737.7 2746.9 2737.7 1483.7 1493.8
1982 2768.3 2777.6 2768.3 2777.6 1508.4 1501.9
1983 2797.6 2818.1 2797.6 2818.1 1518.6 1510.0
1984 2831.1 2859.1 2831.1 2859.1 1519.8 1518.2
1985 2818.5 2900.8 2818.5 2900.8 1523.7 1526.4
1986 2883.5 2943.1 2883.5 2943.1 1534.2 1534.7
1987 3052.8 2985.9 3052.8 2986.0 1536.9 1543.0
1988 3036.2 3029.5 3036.2 3029.5 1545.6 1551.3
1989 3086.0 3073.6 3086.0 3073.6 1560.0 1559.7
1990 3258.4 3253.5 3258.4 3253.5 1573.9 1568.1
1991 3530.5 3444.0 3530.5 3443.9 1577.8 1576.6
1992 3644.7 3645.6 3644.7 3645.5 1573.3 1585.1
1993 3340.1 3392.6 3340.1 3392.7 1572.6 1568.5
1994 3096.3 3157.1 3096.3 3157.4 1557.5 1551.9
1995 2986.2 2938.0 2986.2 2938.4 1546.8 1535.6
1996 2990.7 2979.6 2990.7 2979.2 1520.4 1519.5
1997 3020.8 3021.8 3020.8 3020.7 1497.4 1503.5
1998 3041.5 3064.6 3041.5 3062.6 1476.1 1487.6
1999 3056.4 3042.2 3056.4 3041.1 1477.2 1472.0
2000 3028.7 3020.1 3028.7 3019.7 1458.8 1456.5
2001 3048.6 2998.0 3048.6 2998.5 1437.2 1441.2
2002 2996.3 2976.2 2996.3 2977.4 1422.9 1417.0
2003 2915.5 2954.5 2915.5 2956.4 1390.3 1393.2
2004 2897.9 2932.9 2897.9 2935.6 1359.6 1369.8
2005 2849.5 2911.5 2849.5 2915.0 1353.6 1346.8
2006 2878.4 2890.3 2878.4 2894.5 1321.3 1324.1
2007 2941.0 2869.2 2941.0 2874.1 1305.4 1301.9
2008 2824.6 2809.1 2820.4 2807.1 1281.6 1280.0
2009 2762.3 2750.2 2754.2 2741.6 1256.2 1258.5
2010 2736.6 2692.6 2724.7 2677.7 1244.4 1237.4
2011 2652.5 2636.2 2637.1 2615.3 1219.4 1216.6
2012 2501.0 2581.0 2482.9 2554.3 1195.6 1196.2
2013 2471.4 2526.9 2449.9 2494.8 1172.4 1176.1
2014 2439.9 2474.0 2410.1 2436.6 1155.8 1156.3
2015 2443.9 2422.2 2404.2 2379.8 1136.9 1136.9
2016 2428.3 2371.4 2359.0 2324.3 1116.4 1117.8

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 2555.2 2737.0 2555.2 2737.0 1527.3 1540.7
1976 2718.3 2779.7 2718.3 2779.7 1584.7 1581.1
1977 2909.9 2823.0 2909.9 2823.0 1641.2 1622.5
1978 2781.1 2867.0 2781.1 2867.0 1662.1 1665.0
1979 2925.4 2911.7 2925.4 2911.7 1695.0 1708.7
1980 3011.7 2957.1 3011.7 2957.1 1765.7 1753.4
1981 3135.9 3003.3 3135.9 3003.3 1801.4 1799.4
1982 3008.1 3050.1 3008.1 3050.1 1839.8 1846.5
1983 3230.5 3097.7 3230.5 3097.6 1877.8 1879.7
1984 3130.2 3146.0 3130.2 3145.9 1919.9 1913.5
1985 3238.4 3195.0 3238.4 3195.0 1945.5 1947.9
1986 3233.6 3244.8 3233.6 3244.8 1979.4 1982.9
1987 3373.0 3295.4 3373.0 3295.4 2028.1 2018.5
1988 3324.0 3346.8 3324.0 3346.8 2032.9 2054.8
1989 3321.2 3399.0 3321.2 3399.0 2106.4 2091.7
1990 3550.3 3685.0 3550.3 3685.1 2136.3 2129.3
1991 4031.6 3995.2 4031.6 3995.3 2150.5 2144.7
1992 4267.3 4331.4 4267.3 4331.6 2124.4 2160.2
1993 4229.1 4132.5 4229.1 4132.3 2183.9 2175.7
1994 3982.7 3942.7 3982.7 3942.2 2137.3 2142.4
1995 3673.1 3761.7 3673.1 3760.9 2122.2 2109.6
1996 3580.7 3710.1 3580.7 3709.5 2103.9 2077.2
1997 3768.4 3659.2 3768.4 3658.8 2045.2 2045.4
1998 3678.5 3609.0 3678.5 3608.8 1990.3 2014.1
1999 3628.0 3559.5 3628.0 3559.5 1981.8 1983.2
2000 3507.5 3510.6 3507.5 3510.9 1956.1 1952.8
2001 3454.8 3462.5 3454.8 3462.9 1928.5 1922.9
2002 3387.9 3415.0 3387.9 3415.6 1871.9 1871.8
2003 3315.2 3368.1 3315.2 3368.9 1798.5 1822.1
2004 3420.5 3321.9 3420.5 3322.9 1769.1 1773.7
2005 3134.4 3276.3 3134.4 3277.5 1727.8 1726.6
2006 3171.3 3231.4 3171.3 3232.7 1674.0 1680.7
2007 3210.9 3187.0 3210.9 3188.5 1659.9 1636.0
2008 3255.4 3143.3 3246.7 3144.9 1588.5 1592.6
2009 3086.1 3046.9 3069.7 3035.3 1551.5 1550.3
2010 2958.5 2953.4 2934.9 2929.5 1534.5 1509.1
2011 2817.0 2862.9 2787.5 2827.3 1468.6 1469.0
2012 2736.8 2775.1 2699.1 2728.7 1427.6 1429.9
2013 2708.4 2689.9 2664.4 2633.6 1388.7 1392.0
2014 2516.6 2607.4 2463.5 2541.8 1351.1 1355.0
2015 2479.3 2527.5 2413.3 2453.2 1310.6 1319.0
2016 2563.1 2449.9 2453.0 2367.6 1284.6 1283.9

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 1382.9 1363.3 1382.9 1363.3 739.4 745.4
1976 1408.6 1388.7 1408.6 1388.7 759.4 753.5
1977 1414.8 1414.6 1414.8 1414.6 761.8 761.6
1978 1410.1 1441.0 1410.1 1441.0 769.6 769.9
1979 1454.5 1467.8 1454.5 1467.8 772.8 778.2
1980 1499.9 1495.2 1499.9 1495.2 789.5 786.6
1981 1532.4 1523.1 1532.4 1523.1 796.1 795.1
1982 1532.2 1551.5 1532.2 1551.5 805.4 803.7
1983 1563.2 1580.4 1563.2 1580.4 811.9 812.4
1984 1609.8 1609.8 1609.8 1609.9 826.2 821.2
1985 1660.5 1639.8 1660.5 1639.9 829.4 830.1
1986 1658.6 1670.4 1658.6 1670.5 840.4 839.1
1987 1724.1 1701.5 1724.1 1701.7 843.1 848.2
1988 1716.4 1733.3 1716.4 1733.4 852.4 857.3
1989 1724.5 1736.0 1724.5 1736.0 871.4 866.6
1990 1741.6 1738.7 1741.6 1738.7 876.5 876.0
1991 1772.4 1741.5 1772.4 1741.3 882.0 882.7
1992 1754.1 1744.2 1754.1 1743.9 888.7 889.5
1993 1736.9 1747.0 1736.9 1746.6 896.7 896.4
1994 1747.5 1749.7 1747.5 1749.2 900.6 903.3
1995 1751.9 1752.5 1751.9 1751.9 900.6 897.7
1996 1764.0 1779.9 1764.0 1780.9 895.2 892.0
1997 1815.8 1807.8 1815.8 1810.3 885.7 886.5
1998 1848.3 1836.1 1848.3 1840.3 886.2 890.3
1999 1819.9 1823.8 1819.9 1824.3 895.5 894.1
2000 1785.0 1811.7 1785.0 1808.5 899.6 897.9
2001 1816.5 1799.6 1816.5 1792.8 885.8 890.2
2002 1787.0 1787.5 1787.0 1777.3 885.6 882.6
2003 1753.1 1775.6 1753.1 1761.9 877.3 875.0
2004 1772.3 1772.0 1772.3 1763.7 866.1 867.4
2005 1755.3 1768.5 1755.3 1765.6 858.4 860.0
2006 1763.2 1764.9 1763.2 1767.4 851.7 852.6
2007 1765.2 1761.4 1765.2 1769.3 842.0 841.5
2008 1774.0 1757.9 1771.5 1771.2 831.9 830.5
2009 1791.6 1754.3 1786.4 1773.0 815.9 819.7
2010 1754.6 1750.8 1746.9 1759.1 813.0 809.0
2011 1748.7 1747.3 1738.5 1745.4 799.1 798.4
2012 1750.3 1743.8 1737.6 1731.7 788.8 788.0
2013 1734.9 1740.3 1719.7 1718.1 775.6 777.8
2014 1738.9 1736.8 1717.8 1704.7 767.7 767.6
2015 1719.7 1733.3 1691.8 1691.3 759.0 757.6
2016 1717.7 1729.8 1668.8 1678.1 746.3 747.7

Rates per 100,000 for All Sites, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 65+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 1340.8 1288.4 1340.8 1292.9 719.5 739.5
1976 1278.3 1309.3 1278.3 1313.2 765.5 752.2
1977 1348.0 1330.7 1348.0 1333.8 760.5 765.2
1978 1304.4 1352.3 1304.4 1354.7 774.3 778.4
1979 1350.3 1374.3 1350.3 1375.9 779.8 791.8
1980 1412.0 1396.7 1412.0 1397.4 818.1 805.5
1981 1416.5 1419.5 1416.5 1419.3 818.1 819.4
1982 1408.1 1442.6 1408.1 1441.6 836.4 833.5
1983 1504.6 1466.1 1504.6 1464.1 858.9 847.9
1984 1488.8 1489.9 1488.8 1487.1 866.8 862.6
1985 1529.3 1514.2 1529.3 1510.4 881.5 877.5
1986 1561.0 1538.9 1561.0 1534.0 896.8 892.6
1987 1569.7 1563.9 1569.7 1558.1 900.2 908.0
1988 1607.8 1589.4 1607.8 1582.5 924.0 923.7
1989 1527.5 1615.3 1527.5 1607.3 940.4 939.6
1990 1667.9 1641.6 1667.9 1632.5 954.6 955.8
1991 1666.8 1648.0 1666.8 1658.0 992.5 972.3
1992 1658.1 1654.5 1658.1 1663.3 970.9 989.1
1993 1607.9 1661.0 1607.9 1668.7 998.7 1006.2
1994 1644.8 1667.5 1644.8 1674.0 991.9 1002.3
1995 1653.1 1674.1 1653.1 1679.4 998.6 998.5
1996 1722.5 1680.6 1722.5 1684.8 994.3 994.6
1997 1702.2 1687.2 1702.2 1690.2 1007.7 990.8
1998 1718.4 1693.9 1718.4 1695.6 979.3 987.0
1999 1743.7 1700.5 1743.7 1701.0 996.8 983.2
2000 1669.2 1707.2 1669.2 1706.5 976.9 979.4
2001 1688.0 1713.9 1688.0 1711.9 974.0 975.7
2002 1797.5 1720.6 1797.5 1717.4 974.7 971.9
2003 1721.1 1727.4 1721.1 1722.9 961.2 956.9
2004 1712.7 1734.2 1712.7 1728.5 936.1 942.1
2005 1742.0 1741.0 1742.0 1734.0 918.0 927.5
2006 1735.9 1747.8 1735.9 1739.6 905.5 913.1
2007 1725.2 1754.7 1725.2 1745.1 903.1 899.0
2008 1759.2 1761.6 1754.4 1750.7 879.3 885.1
2009 1735.7 1745.5 1726.8 1756.3 865.3 871.4
2010 1716.0 1729.5 1702.3 1729.3 858.0 857.9
2011 1717.0 1713.7 1698.9 1702.7 857.3 844.6
2012 1756.0 1698.0 1733.0 1676.5 838.0 831.6
2013 1728.4 1682.4 1701.2 1650.8 823.4 818.7
2014 1593.9 1667.0 1561.0 1625.4 809.4 806.0
2015 1640.1 1651.8 1597.3 1600.4 785.4 793.6
2016 1647.5 1636.7 1576.9 1575.7 778.4 781.3

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
All Sites, Ages 65+, 1975-2015

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male2007-16-2.1*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2007-16-2.3*
U.S. Mortality, White, Male2001-16-1.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male2008-16-3.1*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male2008-16-3.5*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2001-16-2.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female2003-16-0.2*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female2009-16-0.8*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2006-16-1.3*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female2008-16-0.9*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female2009-16-1.5*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female2002-16-1.5*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.7, February 2019, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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