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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 29.0 | 30.6 | 29.0 | 30.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1991 | 39.4 | 37.7 | 39.4 | 37.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 1992 | 49.5 | 46.3 | 49.5 | 46.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 48.9 | 47.8 | 48.9 | 47.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1994 | 46.9 | 49.3 | 46.9 | 49.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1995 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 1996 | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.1 | 52.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.0 | 54.2 | 54.0 | 54.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 58.9 | 57.8 | 58.9 | 57.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 59.8 | 59.6 | 59.8 | 59.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2001 | 62.7 | 61.5 | 62.7 | 61.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 64.1 | 61.3 | 64.1 | 61.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 59.8 | 61.1 | 59.8 | 61.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.6 | 60.9 | 60.6 | 60.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2005 | 55.5 | 60.8 | 55.5 | 60.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 62.7 | 60.6 | 62.7 | 60.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.0 | 60.4 | 64.0 | 60.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.2 | 60.2 | 60.1 | 60.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 60.5 | 60.0 | 60.2 | 59.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 56.9 | 59.8 | 56.6 | 59.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 55.3 | 52.7 | 54.8 | 52.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 43.4 | 46.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | 42.3 | 40.9 | 41.8 | 40.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2014 | 39.6 | 40.5 | 38.9 | 39.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 39.8 | 40.1 | 38.8 | 38.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 40.2 | 39.7 | 38.6 | 38.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.5 | 32.2 | 31.5 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.0 | 33.5 | 37.0 | 33.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.6 | 34.2 | 31.6 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.9 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 36.1 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| 1988 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1989 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.8 | 46.7 | 44.8 | 46.8 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| 1991 | 57.6 | 58.9 | 57.6 | 59.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| 1992 | 78.8 | 74.4 | 78.8 | 74.7 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
| 1993 | 95.5 | 93.8 | 95.5 | 94.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 96.2 | 96.6 | 96.2 | 97.0 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 100.9 | 99.5 | 100.9 | 99.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 101.4 | 102.5 | 101.4 | 102.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 98.9 | 105.6 | 98.9 | 105.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| 1998 | 105.0 | 108.8 | 105.0 | 107.8 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| 1999 | 114.3 | 112.0 | 114.3 | 110.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 2000 | 117.2 | 115.4 | 117.2 | 113.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 116.5 | 115.0 | 116.5 | 116.7 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 2002 | 118.7 | 114.7 | 118.7 | 116.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 117.7 | 114.4 | 117.7 | 115.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| 2004 | 107.9 | 114.0 | 107.9 | 114.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2005 | 107.9 | 113.7 | 107.9 | 113.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 110.8 | 113.3 | 110.8 | 113.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| 2007 | 121.2 | 113.0 | 121.2 | 112.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 112.9 | 112.7 | 112.4 | 111.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2009 | 112.2 | 112.3 | 111.1 | 111.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | 108.2 | 112.0 | 106.7 | 110.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 107.1 | 103.5 | 105.1 | 101.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 94.1 | 95.6 | 91.9 | 93.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 2013 | 89.0 | 88.3 | 86.5 | 85.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 2014 | 79.6 | 81.6 | 76.9 | 79.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 2015 | 87.4 | 85.0 | 83.9 | 81.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| 2016 | 87.2 | 88.5 | 82.0 | 83.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.3 | 643.0 | 639.3 | 643.0 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 674.0 | 657.5 | 674.0 | 657.5 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.6 | 672.3 | 680.6 | 672.4 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 687.5 | 671.0 | 687.5 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 703.0 | 708.0 | 703.0 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.2 | 718.9 | 729.2 | 718.9 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.2 | 735.1 | 743.2 | 735.1 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.0 | 751.7 | 740.0 | 751.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.1 | 768.7 | 762.1 | 768.7 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.1 | 786.1 | 759.1 | 786.1 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 784.8 | 803.8 | 784.8 | 803.8 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.5 | 821.9 | 815.5 | 821.9 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.1 | 840.5 | 919.1 | 840.5 | 241.3 | 239.7 |
| 1988 | 943.9 | 946.5 | 943.9 | 946.5 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 990.2 | 1065.8 | 990.2 | 1065.8 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1167.9 | 1200.1 | 1167.9 | 1200.1 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1441.2 | 1351.4 | 1441.2 | 1351.4 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1546.2 | 1521.8 | 1546.2 | 1521.8 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1281.8 | 1316.6 | 1281.8 | 1316.5 | 270.8 | 269.3 |
| 1994 | 1056.4 | 1139.0 | 1056.4 | 1139.0 | 266.0 | 268.0 |
| 1995 | 970.7 | 985.4 | 970.7 | 985.4 | 256.9 | 256.4 |
| 1996 | 950.2 | 978.3 | 950.2 | 978.2 | 246.4 | 245.2 |
| 1997 | 975.4 | 971.2 | 975.4 | 971.1 | 234.6 | 234.6 |
| 1998 | 960.3 | 964.1 | 960.3 | 964.1 | 223.4 | 224.4 |
| 1999 | 1014.3 | 957.1 | 1014.3 | 957.1 | 216.9 | 216.6 |
| 2000 | 1009.4 | 950.1 | 1009.4 | 950.1 | 208.3 | 209.0 |
| 2001 | 1016.7 | 943.2 | 1016.7 | 943.3 | 202.1 | 201.7 |
| 2002 | 982.5 | 936.4 | 982.5 | 936.4 | 197.5 | 194.6 |
| 2003 | 906.5 | 929.6 | 906.5 | 929.6 | 187.0 | 187.8 |
| 2004 | 870.3 | 922.8 | 870.3 | 922.9 | 179.5 | 181.3 |
| 2005 | 822.4 | 916.1 | 822.4 | 916.2 | 174.2 | 175.0 |
| 2006 | 903.8 | 909.4 | 903.8 | 909.5 | 165.8 | 168.8 |
| 2007 | 911.6 | 902.8 | 911.6 | 902.9 | 165.6 | 162.9 |
| 2008 | 805.1 | 836.8 | 803.0 | 834.6 | 158.3 | 157.2 |
| 2009 | 787.1 | 775.6 | 783.0 | 771.5 | 151.1 | 151.8 |
| 2010 | 757.5 | 718.8 | 751.8 | 713.2 | 148.6 | 146.5 |
| 2011 | 716.6 | 666.2 | 709.3 | 659.2 | 142.7 | 141.3 |
| 2012 | 583.5 | 617.5 | 576.2 | 609.4 | 133.5 | 136.4 |
| 2013 | 561.4 | 572.3 | 552.9 | 563.3 | 132.5 | 131.6 |
| 2014 | 516.3 | 530.4 | 505.2 | 520.7 | 131.8 | 132.0 |
| 2015 | 558.7 | 550.9 | 542.3 | 532.9 | 130.5 | 132.3 |
| 2016 | 568.3 | 572.2 | 540.8 | 545.4 | 133.8 | 132.6 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 932.0 | 950.1 | 932.0 | 950.1 | 394.0 | 391.6 |
| 1976 | 910.9 | 969.2 | 910.9 | 969.2 | 392.2 | 399.7 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 988.8 | 1057.2 | 988.8 | 398.7 | 408.0 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1008.7 | 986.4 | 1008.7 | 416.1 | 416.4 |
| 1979 | 1098.9 | 1029.0 | 1098.9 | 1029.0 | 422.9 | 425.0 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1049.8 | 1041.4 | 1049.8 | 445.0 | 433.8 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1070.9 | 1041.9 | 1070.9 | 454.4 | 442.8 |
| 1982 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 447.7 | 452.0 |
| 1983 | 1118.4 | 1114.5 | 1118.4 | 1114.5 | 462.5 | 461.3 |
| 1984 | 1158.1 | 1137.0 | 1158.1 | 1137.0 | 475.1 | 470.9 |
| 1985 | 1130.0 | 1159.9 | 1130.0 | 1159.9 | 482.7 | 480.6 |
| 1986 | 1098.3 | 1183.3 | 1098.3 | 1183.3 | 487.4 | 490.5 |
| 1987 | 1249.5 | 1207.1 | 1249.5 | 1207.2 | 499.0 | 500.7 |
| 1988 | 1263.8 | 1231.4 | 1263.8 | 1231.5 | 502.3 | 511.1 |
| 1989 | 1259.3 | 1256.2 | 1259.3 | 1256.3 | 518.5 | 528.7 |
| 1990 | 1450.9 | 1511.3 | 1450.9 | 1511.2 | 565.6 | 547.0 |
| 1991 | 1895.0 | 1818.2 | 1895.0 | 1817.7 | 570.2 | 565.9 |
| 1992 | 2074.2 | 2187.4 | 2074.2 | 2186.4 | 578.7 | 585.5 |
| 1993 | 2090.0 | 1990.3 | 2090.0 | 1991.0 | 599.1 | 605.8 |
| 1994 | 1832.8 | 1810.9 | 1832.8 | 1813.0 | 585.9 | 590.3 |
| 1995 | 1565.9 | 1647.7 | 1565.9 | 1650.9 | 572.5 | 575.3 |
| 1996 | 1564.7 | 1612.9 | 1564.7 | 1615.2 | 579.2 | 560.7 |
| 1997 | 1598.0 | 1578.8 | 1598.0 | 1580.3 | 544.2 | 546.4 |
| 1998 | 1587.8 | 1545.4 | 1587.8 | 1546.1 | 532.4 | 532.5 |
| 1999 | 1556.2 | 1512.7 | 1556.2 | 1512.6 | 514.8 | 519.0 |
| 2000 | 1537.0 | 1480.7 | 1537.0 | 1479.9 | 507.8 | 505.8 |
| 2001 | 1410.2 | 1449.4 | 1410.2 | 1447.9 | 499.7 | 492.9 |
| 2002 | 1498.2 | 1418.7 | 1498.2 | 1416.6 | 477.8 | 473.3 |
| 2003 | 1289.0 | 1388.7 | 1289.0 | 1386.0 | 441.0 | 454.5 |
| 2004 | 1333.7 | 1359.3 | 1333.7 | 1356.0 | 433.7 | 436.4 |
| 2005 | 1285.4 | 1330.6 | 1285.4 | 1326.7 | 417.8 | 419.1 |
| 2006 | 1284.2 | 1302.4 | 1284.2 | 1298.0 | 393.5 | 402.4 |
| 2007 | 1308.1 | 1274.9 | 1308.1 | 1269.9 | 403.0 | 386.4 |
| 2008 | 1261.6 | 1247.9 | 1255.2 | 1242.4 | 357.6 | 371.0 |
| 2009 | 1201.0 | 1221.5 | 1188.9 | 1215.6 | 359.7 | 356.3 |
| 2010 | 1123.9 | 1115.9 | 1106.4 | 1103.2 | 350.0 | 342.1 |
| 2011 | 1055.3 | 1019.4 | 1034.1 | 1001.3 | 318.5 | 322.2 |
| 2012 | 903.0 | 931.3 | 879.3 | 908.8 | 302.7 | 303.4 |
| 2013 | 893.8 | 850.8 | 865.5 | 824.8 | 282.3 | 285.7 |
| 2014 | 759.5 | 777.2 | 732.6 | 748.6 | 273.3 | 269.1 |
| 2015 | 778.8 | 808.0 | 745.0 | 768.7 | 270.3 | 271.6 |
| 2016 | 853.9 | 840.0 | 800.5 | 789.3 | 274.7 | 274.1 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Prostate, Male, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2013-16 | -1.0 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2013-16 | -1.9 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2002-16 | -0.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2014-16 | 4.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2014-16 | 2.8 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 2013-16 | 2.0 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2014-16 | 3.9 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2014-16 | 2.3 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 2013-16 | 0.3 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2014-16 | 4.0 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2014-16 | 2.7 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2014-16 | 0.9 |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.7, February 2019, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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