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Figure 4.1
Figure 4.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Race
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 107.4 | 105.9 | 107.4 | 105.9 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| 1976 | 104.8 | 105.4 | 104.8 | 105.4 | 32.2 | 31.9 |
| 1977 | 103.3 | 104.9 | 103.3 | 104.9 | 32.7 | 32.0 |
| 1978 | 103.6 | 104.4 | 103.6 | 104.4 | 31.9 | 32.1 |
| 1979 | 104.7 | 103.9 | 104.7 | 103.9 | 31.5 | 32.2 |
| 1980 | 105.1 | 103.4 | 105.1 | 103.4 | 31.9 | 32.2 |
| 1981 | 109.9 | 107.6 | 109.9 | 107.6 | 32.1 | 32.3 |
| 1982 | 109.9 | 112.0 | 109.9 | 112.0 | 32.3 | 32.4 |
| 1983 | 114.5 | 116.6 | 114.5 | 116.6 | 32.2 | 32.5 |
| 1984 | 119.9 | 121.4 | 119.9 | 121.4 | 32.9 | 32.6 |
| 1985 | 127.8 | 126.4 | 127.8 | 126.4 | 33.1 | 32.7 |
| 1986 | 130.4 | 131.5 | 130.4 | 131.5 | 32.9 | 32.7 |
| 1987 | 140.2 | 136.9 | 140.2 | 136.9 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| 1988 | 136.3 | 136.6 | 136.3 | 136.6 | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| 1989 | 132.5 | 136.3 | 132.5 | 136.3 | 33.2 | 33.0 |
| 1990 | 136.3 | 135.9 | 136.3 | 135.9 | 33.0 | 33.1 |
| 1991 | 138.9 | 135.6 | 138.9 | 135.6 | 32.4 | 32.4 |
| 1992 | 135.7 | 135.3 | 135.7 | 135.3 | 31.4 | 31.8 |
| 1993 | 133.1 | 135.0 | 133.1 | 135.0 | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| 1994 | 135.7 | 134.6 | 135.7 | 134.7 | 30.6 | 30.5 |
| 1995 | 137.7 | 137.3 | 137.7 | 137.3 | 30.1 | 29.9 |
| 1996 | 138.2 | 140.1 | 138.2 | 140.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| 1997 | 142.7 | 142.9 | 142.7 | 142.8 | 27.6 | 27.9 |
| 1998 | 146.5 | 145.7 | 146.5 | 145.7 | 27.0 | 26.9 |
| 1999 | 147.1 | 148.6 | 147.1 | 148.5 | 26.0 | 26.4 |
| 2000 | 143.1 | 145.0 | 143.1 | 145.0 | 26.2 | 25.9 |
| 2001 | 145.1 | 141.4 | 145.1 | 141.5 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| 2002 | 141.3 | 137.9 | 141.3 | 138.1 | 25.0 | 24.9 |
| 2003 | 131.9 | 134.6 | 131.9 | 134.8 | 24.7 | 24.4 |
| 2004 | 132.1 | 131.3 | 132.1 | 131.5 | 23.9 | 23.9 |
| 2005 | 131.4 | 131.6 | 131.4 | 131.8 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| 2006 | 130.6 | 132.0 | 130.6 | 132.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| 2007 | 132.6 | 132.3 | 132.6 | 132.2 | 22.4 | 22.6 |
| 2008 | 131.7 | 132.7 | 131.7 | 132.5 | 22.0 | 22.2 |
| 2009 | 134.7 | 133.0 | 134.6 | 132.7 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
| 2010 | 131.4 | 133.4 | 131.2 | 133.0 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| 2011 | 134.3 | 133.8 | 134.0 | 133.2 | 20.9 | 20.9 |
| 2012 | 133.4 | 134.1 | 132.9 | 133.5 | 20.7 | 20.6 |
| 2013 | 134.3 | 134.5 | 133.7 | 133.7 | 20.3 | 20.4 |
| 2014 | 134.9 | 134.8 | 134.3 | 133.9 | 20.0 | 20.1 |
| 2015 | 135.5 | 135.2 | 134.6 | 134.2 | 19.8 | 19.8 |
| 2016 | 135.0 | 135.6 | 133.7 | 134.4 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| 2017 | 137.1 | 135.9 | 135.1 | 134.7 | 19.4 | 19.3 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 93.6 | 91.4 | 93.6 | 91.4 | 29.5 | 30.5 |
| 1976 | 85.7 | 89.2 | 85.7 | 89.2 | 30.5 | 30.9 |
| 1977 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 87.0 | 32.8 | 31.3 |
| 1978 | 86.1 | 85.0 | 86.1 | 84.8 | 32.1 | 31.7 |
| 1979 | 86.9 | 87.8 | 86.9 | 87.7 | 30.8 | 32.2 |
| 1980 | 89.5 | 90.8 | 89.5 | 90.7 | 31.7 | 32.6 |
| 1981 | 94.2 | 93.8 | 94.2 | 93.8 | 32.6 | 33.1 |
| 1982 | 93.6 | 97.0 | 93.6 | 97.0 | 33.7 | 33.5 |
| 1983 | 103.6 | 100.3 | 103.6 | 100.4 | 33.5 | 34.0 |
| 1984 | 102.4 | 103.6 | 102.4 | 103.8 | 35.9 | 34.4 |
| 1985 | 111.9 | 107.1 | 111.9 | 107.4 | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| 1986 | 115.3 | 110.7 | 115.3 | 111.0 | 35.4 | 35.4 |
| 1987 | 109.5 | 114.4 | 109.5 | 114.8 | 36.7 | 35.9 |
| 1988 | 119.0 | 118.3 | 119.0 | 118.8 | 37.8 | 36.4 |
| 1989 | 105.2 | 118.7 | 105.2 | 119.1 | 36.6 | 36.9 |
| 1990 | 119.0 | 119.1 | 119.0 | 119.5 | 38.0 | 37.4 |
| 1991 | 117.5 | 119.5 | 117.5 | 119.9 | 38.3 | 37.9 |
| 1992 | 124.4 | 119.9 | 124.4 | 120.2 | 37.1 | 38.4 |
| 1993 | 119.9 | 120.4 | 119.9 | 120.6 | 38.0 | 38.9 |
| 1994 | 123.0 | 120.8 | 123.0 | 120.9 | 37.7 | 38.3 |
| 1995 | 124.1 | 121.2 | 124.1 | 121.3 | 38.2 | 37.8 |
| 1996 | 124.7 | 121.6 | 124.7 | 121.7 | 37.1 | 37.2 |
| 1997 | 126.3 | 122.0 | 126.3 | 122.0 | 37.4 | 36.6 |
| 1998 | 126.4 | 122.5 | 126.4 | 122.4 | 35.5 | 36.1 |
| 1999 | 126.7 | 122.9 | 126.7 | 122.8 | 35.2 | 35.5 |
| 2000 | 119.4 | 123.3 | 119.4 | 123.1 | 34.4 | 35.0 |
| 2001 | 116.7 | 123.7 | 116.7 | 123.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| 2002 | 124.5 | 124.2 | 124.5 | 123.9 | 34.1 | 33.9 |
| 2003 | 123.9 | 124.6 | 123.9 | 124.2 | 34.1 | 33.4 |
| 2004 | 124.8 | 125.0 | 124.8 | 124.6 | 32.3 | 32.9 |
| 2005 | 119.3 | 125.5 | 119.3 | 125.0 | 32.8 | 32.4 |
| 2006 | 125.8 | 125.9 | 125.8 | 125.4 | 31.6 | 31.9 |
| 2007 | 125.0 | 126.4 | 125.0 | 125.7 | 31.4 | 31.4 |
| 2008 | 128.8 | 126.8 | 128.8 | 126.1 | 31.0 | 30.9 |
| 2009 | 130.0 | 127.2 | 129.8 | 126.5 | 30.2 | 30.5 |
| 2010 | 123.6 | 127.7 | 123.2 | 126.9 | 30.2 | 30.0 |
| 2011 | 129.4 | 128.1 | 128.8 | 127.3 | 30.2 | 29.5 |
| 2012 | 134.6 | 128.6 | 133.8 | 127.6 | 29.4 | 29.1 |
| 2013 | 130.5 | 129.0 | 129.6 | 128.0 | 28.2 | 28.6 |
| 2014 | 129.3 | 129.5 | 128.2 | 128.4 | 28.1 | 28.2 |
| 2015 | 131.4 | 129.9 | 129.9 | 128.8 | 27.6 | 27.8 |
| 2016 | 131.5 | 130.4 | 129.5 | 129.2 | 27.4 | 27.4 |
| 2017 | 124.5 | 130.8 | 121.9 | 129.6 | 26.9 | 26.9 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Breast, Female, All Ages, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White | 2004-17 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White | 2004-17 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, White | 2011-17 | -1.3* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black | 1988-17 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black | 1988-17 | 0.3* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black | 1993-17 | -1.5* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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