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Figure 4.2

CSR Figure 4.2: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Age and Race


Figure 4.2

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 9.0 8.7
1976 40.8 40.3 40.8 40.3 8.6 8.6
1977 39.3 39.8 39.3 39.8 8.7 8.6
1978 39.3 39.4 39.3 39.4 8.5 8.5
1979 38.6 39.0 38.6 39.0 8.3 8.5
1980 38.3 38.5 38.3 38.5 8.4 8.4
1981 40.1 39.6 40.1 39.6 8.2 8.4
1982 41.3 40.6 41.3 40.6 8.2 8.3
1983 40.8 41.7 40.8 41.7 7.9 8.3
1984 43.2 42.8 43.2 42.8 8.2 8.2
1985 44.4 44.0 44.4 44.0 8.3 8.2
1986 45.3 45.2 45.3 45.1 8.3 8.1
1987 46.5 46.4 46.5 46.3 8.0 8.1
1988 44.9 46.0 44.9 45.9 8.0 8.0
1989 44.5 45.5 44.5 45.6 8.1 8.0
1990 45.4 45.1 45.4 45.2 8.0 7.9
1991 47.3 44.7 47.3 44.8 7.7 7.6
1992 43.6 44.3 43.6 44.4 7.4 7.4
1993 43.2 43.9 43.2 44.0 7.0 7.1
1994 42.8 43.5 42.8 43.6 6.9 6.8
1995 43.8 43.7 43.8 43.8 6.8 6.6
1996 44.0 43.8 44.0 43.9 6.4 6.3
1997 44.1 44.0 44.1 44.0 6.2 6.1
1998 45.4 44.1 45.4 44.1 5.8 5.9
1999 45.1 44.2 45.1 44.2 5.2 5.7
2000 44.0 44.4 44.0 44.4 5.4 5.5
2001 44.9 44.5 44.9 44.5 5.4 5.3
2002 43.5 44.7 43.5 44.6 5.1 5.1
2003 44.3 44.8 44.3 44.7 5.1 4.9
2004 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.9 4.7 4.7
2005 44.5 45.1 44.5 45.0 4.7 4.5
2006 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.1 4.6 4.5
2007 45.8 45.4 45.8 45.3 4.3 4.4
2008 45.6 45.5 45.6 45.4 4.3 4.4
2009 46.1 45.7 46.1 45.5 4.5 4.3
2010 45.2 45.8 45.1 45.6 4.1 4.2
2011 45.7 45.9 45.6 45.8 4.0 4.2
2012 45.2 46.1 45.0 45.9 4.2 4.1
2013 46.1 46.2 45.9 46.0 4.1 4.1
2014 46.0 46.4 45.8 46.2 4.0 4.0
2015 46.9 46.5 46.6 46.3 3.9 3.9
2016 45.7 46.7 45.3 46.4 4.0 3.9
2017 49.1 46.8 48.4 46.6 3.8 3.8

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 43.0 37.8 43.0 38.0 10.7 10.4
1976 38.0 38.3 38.0 38.4 10.2 10.6
1977 37.9 38.8 37.9 38.9 10.5 10.7
1978 40.0 39.3 40.0 39.4 11.4 10.9
1979 37.8 39.8 37.8 39.9 11.4 11.1
1980 37.7 40.4 37.7 40.4 10.8 11.2
1981 38.7 40.9 38.7 40.9 11.5 11.4
1982 38.0 41.4 38.0 41.4 11.2 11.6
1983 41.6 42.0 41.6 41.9 11.2 11.8
1984 44.7 42.5 44.7 42.4 12.5 12.0
1985 45.9 43.0 45.9 42.9 12.0 12.2
1986 45.6 43.6 45.6 43.4 12.9 12.4
1987 43.1 44.2 43.1 44.0 12.9 12.6
1988 43.0 44.8 43.0 44.5 12.7 12.8
1989 42.3 45.3 42.3 45.1 12.4 13.0
1990 49.1 45.9 49.1 45.6 12.0 12.7
1991 51.0 45.9 51.0 46.2 12.3 12.4
1992 46.9 45.9 46.9 46.1 12.0 12.1
1993 45.5 45.8 45.5 46.1 11.7 11.9
1994 47.7 45.8 47.7 46.0 11.7 11.6
1995 45.8 45.7 45.8 45.9 11.7 11.3
1996 44.5 45.7 44.5 45.9 11.7 11.1
1997 44.9 45.7 44.9 45.8 11.0 10.8
1998 47.4 45.6 47.4 45.7 10.6 10.6
1999 44.1 45.6 44.1 45.7 10.3 10.4
2000 45.3 45.6 45.3 45.6 9.9 10.1
2001 40.0 45.5 40.0 45.5 9.9 9.9
2002 41.7 45.5 41.7 45.5 10.0 9.7
2003 43.5 45.5 43.5 45.4 9.6 9.5
2004 48.4 45.4 48.4 45.3 9.3 9.3
2005 45.8 45.4 45.8 45.3 9.5 9.1
2006 45.3 45.3 45.3 45.2 8.9 8.9
2007 45.5 45.3 45.5 45.1 8.5 8.7
2008 45.4 45.3 45.4 45.1 8.2 8.5
2009 45.9 45.2 45.8 45.0 8.0 8.3
2010 44.5 45.2 44.4 44.9 8.0 8.1
2011 48.8 45.2 48.6 44.9 7.8 7.9
2012 42.6 45.1 42.4 44.8 7.9 7.8
2013 42.2 45.1 41.9 44.7 7.3 7.6
2014 46.4 45.1 46.0 44.7 7.6 7.4
2015 46.1 45.0 45.6 44.6 6.9 7.3
2016 48.5 45.0 47.8 44.5 7.4 7.1
2017 43.2 45.0 42.3 44.5 7.0 6.9

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 282.0 271.4 282.0 271.4 91.4 92.1
1976 272.5 273.8 272.5 273.8 93.8 92.6
1977 271.0 276.3 271.0 276.3 95.3 93.1
1978 272.0 278.8 272.0 278.8 93.3 93.6
1979 277.8 281.4 277.8 281.4 92.1 94.1
1980 280.2 283.9 280.2 283.9 93.6 94.6
1981 292.7 286.5 292.7 286.5 94.8 95.1
1982 289.8 289.1 289.8 289.1 95.5 95.6
1983 307.2 305.0 307.2 305.0 95.8 96.1
1984 320.8 321.8 320.8 321.8 97.5 96.6
1985 346.2 339.6 346.2 339.6 98.1 97.2
1986 353.2 358.3 353.2 358.3 97.5 97.7
1987 385.8 378.0 385.8 378.0 96.9 98.2
1988 375.5 376.9 375.5 376.9 98.8 98.7
1989 362.7 375.9 362.7 375.9 99.2 99.3
1990 374.2 374.8 374.2 374.8 98.5 97.8
1991 378.7 373.8 378.7 373.8 97.2 96.5
1992 376.9 372.7 376.9 372.8 94.5 95.1
1993 368.5 371.7 368.5 371.7 94.2 93.8
1994 379.0 378.0 379.0 378.0 92.5 92.4
1995 383.5 384.3 383.5 384.3 91.1 91.1
1996 385.0 390.8 385.0 390.8 88.3 88.0
1997 400.8 397.4 400.8 397.3 83.6 85.1
1998 411.2 404.1 411.2 404.0 82.5 82.2
1999 414.3 410.9 414.3 410.7 80.4 80.8
2000 402.5 417.8 402.5 417.6 80.6 79.4
2001 407.6 401.7 407.6 401.8 78.0 78.0
2002 397.2 386.2 397.2 386.6 77.3 76.7
2003 361.2 371.3 361.2 371.9 75.9 75.3
2004 360.5 357.0 360.5 357.8 74.4 74.0
2005 359.0 357.9 359.0 358.4 72.8 72.8
2006 354.5 358.8 354.5 359.0 71.3 71.5
2007 360.1 359.8 360.1 359.6 69.9 70.3
2008 357.1 360.7 357.1 360.2 68.2 69.1
2009 366.7 361.6 366.4 360.8 67.0 67.9
2010 357.1 362.5 356.5 361.4 66.5 66.7
2011 366.4 363.5 365.5 362.0 65.2 65.5
2012 364.4 364.4 363.2 362.6 64.1 64.4
2013 365.1 365.3 363.5 363.2 62.8 63.3
2014 367.7 366.2 365.8 363.8 62.2 62.2
2015 367.6 367.2 365.2 364.4 61.4 61.1
2016 368.7 368.1 365.3 365.0 60.4 60.1
2017 367.6 369.1 362.3 365.6 60.1 59.0

Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 226.1 207.1 226.1 206.7 78.8 81.5
1976 210.6 212.5 210.6 212.1 83.5 82.8
1977 216.1 218.1 216.1 217.7 91.1 84.2
1978 207.0 223.7 207.0 223.5 86.5 85.5
1979 215.7 229.6 215.7 229.4 81.8 86.9
1980 225.1 235.5 225.1 235.4 86.3 88.3
1981 239.6 241.7 239.6 241.6 87.7 89.7
1982 239.1 248.0 239.1 248.0 92.8 91.2
1983 266.1 254.4 266.1 254.6 92.1 92.7
1984 253.6 261.1 253.6 261.3 97.2 94.2
1985 284.8 267.9 284.8 268.2 94.6 95.7
1986 297.8 274.8 297.8 275.3 94.6 97.2
1987 283.5 282.0 283.5 282.6 99.0 98.8
1988 318.1 289.3 318.1 290.0 103.4 100.4
1989 270.0 296.9 270.0 297.7 100.0 102.0
1990 302.1 304.6 302.1 305.5 106.1 103.7
1991 291.7 312.5 291.7 313.6 106.3 105.4
1992 327.4 320.7 327.4 321.9 102.7 107.1
1993 314.6 321.9 314.6 322.9 107.1 108.8
1994 319.9 323.1 319.9 324.0 105.9 107.4
1995 329.0 324.4 329.0 325.0 107.5 106.0
1996 334.8 325.6 334.8 326.1 103.6 104.6
1997 339.4 326.9 339.4 327.1 106.6 103.3
1998 333.1 328.1 333.1 328.2 100.7 102.0
1999 343.1 329.4 343.1 329.3 100.5 100.7
2000 313.5 330.6 313.5 330.3 98.3 99.4
2001 317.5 331.9 317.5 331.4 99.1 98.1
2002 341.6 333.1 341.6 332.5 97.3 96.8
2003 334.5 334.4 334.5 333.6 98.2 95.6
2004 324.9 335.7 324.9 334.6 92.6 94.4
2005 311.5 337.0 311.5 335.7 93.9 93.1
2006 336.5 338.3 336.5 336.8 91.2 91.9
2007 333.1 339.6 333.1 337.9 91.1 90.8
2008 347.2 340.8 347.2 339.0 90.5 89.6
2009 350.4 342.1 349.9 340.1 88.4 88.4
2010 330.7 343.5 329.7 341.2 88.1 87.3
2011 340.3 344.8 338.7 342.3 88.6 86.2
2012 375.7 346.1 373.4 343.4 85.7 85.1
2013 361.8 347.4 359.2 344.5 83.0 84.0
2014 346.4 348.7 343.4 345.6 81.8 82.9
2015 355.0 350.1 350.8 346.8 81.8 81.8
2016 348.7 351.4 343.3 347.9 79.5 80.8
2017 337.6 352.7 330.3 349.0 79.1 79.8

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Breast, Female, 1975-2015

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <501994-170.3*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <501994-170.3*
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <502005-17-1.4*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <501990-17-0.1
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <501991-17-0.1
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <501989-17-2.2*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+2004-170.3*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+2004-170.2
U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+1998-17-1.7*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+1992-170.4*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+1992-170.3*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+1993-17-1.3*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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