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Figure 4.2
Figure 4.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Female Breast, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
- Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| 1976 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 1977 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| 1978 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 1980 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1981 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| 1982 | 41.3 | 40.6 | 41.3 | 40.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| 1983 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| 1984 | 43.2 | 42.8 | 43.2 | 42.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| 1985 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| 1986 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 46.5 | 46.4 | 46.5 | 46.3 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| 1988 | 44.9 | 46.0 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| 1989 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| 1990 | 45.4 | 45.1 | 45.4 | 45.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 1991 | 47.3 | 44.7 | 47.3 | 44.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| 1992 | 43.6 | 44.3 | 43.6 | 44.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| 1993 | 43.2 | 43.9 | 43.2 | 44.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1994 | 42.8 | 43.5 | 42.8 | 43.6 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 43.8 | 43.7 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1997 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 44.1 | 44.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| 1998 | 45.4 | 44.1 | 45.4 | 44.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 1999 | 45.1 | 44.2 | 45.1 | 44.2 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| 2000 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| 2001 | 44.9 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 44.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| 2002 | 43.5 | 44.7 | 43.5 | 44.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | 44.3 | 44.8 | 44.3 | 44.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 2004 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 2005 | 44.5 | 45.1 | 44.5 | 45.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| 2006 | 45.1 | 45.2 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| 2007 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2008 | 45.6 | 45.5 | 45.6 | 45.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 2009 | 46.1 | 45.7 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | 45.2 | 45.8 | 45.1 | 45.6 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 45.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| 2012 | 45.2 | 46.1 | 45.0 | 45.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2013 | 46.1 | 46.2 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 2014 | 46.0 | 46.4 | 45.8 | 46.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2015 | 46.9 | 46.5 | 46.6 | 46.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 2016 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 45.3 | 46.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2017 | 49.1 | 46.8 | 48.4 | 46.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages <50
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 43.0 | 38.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| 1976 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| 1977 | 37.9 | 38.8 | 37.9 | 38.9 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| 1978 | 40.0 | 39.3 | 40.0 | 39.4 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 37.8 | 39.8 | 37.8 | 39.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 37.7 | 40.4 | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| 1981 | 38.7 | 40.9 | 38.7 | 40.9 | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| 1982 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 38.0 | 41.4 | 11.2 | 11.6 |
| 1983 | 41.6 | 42.0 | 41.6 | 41.9 | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| 1984 | 44.7 | 42.5 | 44.7 | 42.4 | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| 1985 | 45.9 | 43.0 | 45.9 | 42.9 | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| 1986 | 45.6 | 43.6 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 12.9 | 12.4 |
| 1987 | 43.1 | 44.2 | 43.1 | 44.0 | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| 1988 | 43.0 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 44.5 | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| 1989 | 42.3 | 45.3 | 42.3 | 45.1 | 12.4 | 13.0 |
| 1990 | 49.1 | 45.9 | 49.1 | 45.6 | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| 1991 | 51.0 | 45.9 | 51.0 | 46.2 | 12.3 | 12.4 |
| 1992 | 46.9 | 45.9 | 46.9 | 46.1 | 12.0 | 12.1 |
| 1993 | 45.5 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| 1994 | 47.7 | 45.8 | 47.7 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| 1995 | 45.8 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| 1996 | 44.5 | 45.7 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| 1997 | 44.9 | 45.7 | 44.9 | 45.8 | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| 1998 | 47.4 | 45.6 | 47.4 | 45.7 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| 1999 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 44.1 | 45.7 | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| 2000 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| 2001 | 40.0 | 45.5 | 40.0 | 45.5 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| 2002 | 41.7 | 45.5 | 41.7 | 45.5 | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2003 | 43.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | 45.4 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 48.4 | 45.4 | 48.4 | 45.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| 2006 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 45.2 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 2007 | 45.5 | 45.3 | 45.5 | 45.1 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| 2008 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 45.4 | 45.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| 2009 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 45.8 | 45.0 | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| 2010 | 44.5 | 45.2 | 44.4 | 44.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| 2011 | 48.8 | 45.2 | 48.6 | 44.9 | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| 2012 | 42.6 | 45.1 | 42.4 | 44.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| 2013 | 42.2 | 45.1 | 41.9 | 44.7 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| 2014 | 46.4 | 45.1 | 46.0 | 44.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| 2015 | 46.1 | 45.0 | 45.6 | 44.6 | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| 2016 | 48.5 | 45.0 | 47.8 | 44.5 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| 2017 | 43.2 | 45.0 | 42.3 | 44.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, White, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 282.0 | 271.4 | 282.0 | 271.4 | 91.4 | 92.1 |
| 1976 | 272.5 | 273.8 | 272.5 | 273.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 |
| 1977 | 271.0 | 276.3 | 271.0 | 276.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 |
| 1978 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 272.0 | 278.8 | 93.3 | 93.6 |
| 1979 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 277.8 | 281.4 | 92.1 | 94.1 |
| 1980 | 280.2 | 283.9 | 280.2 | 283.9 | 93.6 | 94.6 |
| 1981 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 292.7 | 286.5 | 94.8 | 95.1 |
| 1982 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 289.8 | 289.1 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
| 1983 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 307.2 | 305.0 | 95.8 | 96.1 |
| 1984 | 320.8 | 321.8 | 320.8 | 321.8 | 97.5 | 96.6 |
| 1985 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 346.2 | 339.6 | 98.1 | 97.2 |
| 1986 | 353.2 | 358.3 | 353.2 | 358.3 | 97.5 | 97.7 |
| 1987 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 385.8 | 378.0 | 96.9 | 98.2 |
| 1988 | 375.5 | 376.9 | 375.5 | 376.9 | 98.8 | 98.7 |
| 1989 | 362.7 | 375.9 | 362.7 | 375.9 | 99.2 | 99.3 |
| 1990 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 374.2 | 374.8 | 98.5 | 97.8 |
| 1991 | 378.7 | 373.8 | 378.7 | 373.8 | 97.2 | 96.5 |
| 1992 | 376.9 | 372.7 | 376.9 | 372.8 | 94.5 | 95.1 |
| 1993 | 368.5 | 371.7 | 368.5 | 371.7 | 94.2 | 93.8 |
| 1994 | 379.0 | 378.0 | 379.0 | 378.0 | 92.5 | 92.4 |
| 1995 | 383.5 | 384.3 | 383.5 | 384.3 | 91.1 | 91.1 |
| 1996 | 385.0 | 390.8 | 385.0 | 390.8 | 88.3 | 88.0 |
| 1997 | 400.8 | 397.4 | 400.8 | 397.3 | 83.6 | 85.1 |
| 1998 | 411.2 | 404.1 | 411.2 | 404.0 | 82.5 | 82.2 |
| 1999 | 414.3 | 410.9 | 414.3 | 410.7 | 80.4 | 80.8 |
| 2000 | 402.5 | 417.8 | 402.5 | 417.6 | 80.6 | 79.4 |
| 2001 | 407.6 | 401.7 | 407.6 | 401.8 | 78.0 | 78.0 |
| 2002 | 397.2 | 386.2 | 397.2 | 386.6 | 77.3 | 76.7 |
| 2003 | 361.2 | 371.3 | 361.2 | 371.9 | 75.9 | 75.3 |
| 2004 | 360.5 | 357.0 | 360.5 | 357.8 | 74.4 | 74.0 |
| 2005 | 359.0 | 357.9 | 359.0 | 358.4 | 72.8 | 72.8 |
| 2006 | 354.5 | 358.8 | 354.5 | 359.0 | 71.3 | 71.5 |
| 2007 | 360.1 | 359.8 | 360.1 | 359.6 | 69.9 | 70.3 |
| 2008 | 357.1 | 360.7 | 357.1 | 360.2 | 68.2 | 69.1 |
| 2009 | 366.7 | 361.6 | 366.4 | 360.8 | 67.0 | 67.9 |
| 2010 | 357.1 | 362.5 | 356.5 | 361.4 | 66.5 | 66.7 |
| 2011 | 366.4 | 363.5 | 365.5 | 362.0 | 65.2 | 65.5 |
| 2012 | 364.4 | 364.4 | 363.2 | 362.6 | 64.1 | 64.4 |
| 2013 | 365.1 | 365.3 | 363.5 | 363.2 | 62.8 | 63.3 |
| 2014 | 367.7 | 366.2 | 365.8 | 363.8 | 62.2 | 62.2 |
| 2015 | 367.6 | 367.2 | 365.2 | 364.4 | 61.4 | 61.1 |
| 2016 | 368.7 | 368.1 | 365.3 | 365.0 | 60.4 | 60.1 |
| 2017 | 367.6 | 369.1 | 362.3 | 365.6 | 60.1 | 59.0 |
Rates per 100,000 for Breast, Black, Female, 1975-2015, Ages 50+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 226.1 | 207.1 | 226.1 | 206.7 | 78.8 | 81.5 |
| 1976 | 210.6 | 212.5 | 210.6 | 212.1 | 83.5 | 82.8 |
| 1977 | 216.1 | 218.1 | 216.1 | 217.7 | 91.1 | 84.2 |
| 1978 | 207.0 | 223.7 | 207.0 | 223.5 | 86.5 | 85.5 |
| 1979 | 215.7 | 229.6 | 215.7 | 229.4 | 81.8 | 86.9 |
| 1980 | 225.1 | 235.5 | 225.1 | 235.4 | 86.3 | 88.3 |
| 1981 | 239.6 | 241.7 | 239.6 | 241.6 | 87.7 | 89.7 |
| 1982 | 239.1 | 248.0 | 239.1 | 248.0 | 92.8 | 91.2 |
| 1983 | 266.1 | 254.4 | 266.1 | 254.6 | 92.1 | 92.7 |
| 1984 | 253.6 | 261.1 | 253.6 | 261.3 | 97.2 | 94.2 |
| 1985 | 284.8 | 267.9 | 284.8 | 268.2 | 94.6 | 95.7 |
| 1986 | 297.8 | 274.8 | 297.8 | 275.3 | 94.6 | 97.2 |
| 1987 | 283.5 | 282.0 | 283.5 | 282.6 | 99.0 | 98.8 |
| 1988 | 318.1 | 289.3 | 318.1 | 290.0 | 103.4 | 100.4 |
| 1989 | 270.0 | 296.9 | 270.0 | 297.7 | 100.0 | 102.0 |
| 1990 | 302.1 | 304.6 | 302.1 | 305.5 | 106.1 | 103.7 |
| 1991 | 291.7 | 312.5 | 291.7 | 313.6 | 106.3 | 105.4 |
| 1992 | 327.4 | 320.7 | 327.4 | 321.9 | 102.7 | 107.1 |
| 1993 | 314.6 | 321.9 | 314.6 | 322.9 | 107.1 | 108.8 |
| 1994 | 319.9 | 323.1 | 319.9 | 324.0 | 105.9 | 107.4 |
| 1995 | 329.0 | 324.4 | 329.0 | 325.0 | 107.5 | 106.0 |
| 1996 | 334.8 | 325.6 | 334.8 | 326.1 | 103.6 | 104.6 |
| 1997 | 339.4 | 326.9 | 339.4 | 327.1 | 106.6 | 103.3 |
| 1998 | 333.1 | 328.1 | 333.1 | 328.2 | 100.7 | 102.0 |
| 1999 | 343.1 | 329.4 | 343.1 | 329.3 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
| 2000 | 313.5 | 330.6 | 313.5 | 330.3 | 98.3 | 99.4 |
| 2001 | 317.5 | 331.9 | 317.5 | 331.4 | 99.1 | 98.1 |
| 2002 | 341.6 | 333.1 | 341.6 | 332.5 | 97.3 | 96.8 |
| 2003 | 334.5 | 334.4 | 334.5 | 333.6 | 98.2 | 95.6 |
| 2004 | 324.9 | 335.7 | 324.9 | 334.6 | 92.6 | 94.4 |
| 2005 | 311.5 | 337.0 | 311.5 | 335.7 | 93.9 | 93.1 |
| 2006 | 336.5 | 338.3 | 336.5 | 336.8 | 91.2 | 91.9 |
| 2007 | 333.1 | 339.6 | 333.1 | 337.9 | 91.1 | 90.8 |
| 2008 | 347.2 | 340.8 | 347.2 | 339.0 | 90.5 | 89.6 |
| 2009 | 350.4 | 342.1 | 349.9 | 340.1 | 88.4 | 88.4 |
| 2010 | 330.7 | 343.5 | 329.7 | 341.2 | 88.1 | 87.3 |
| 2011 | 340.3 | 344.8 | 338.7 | 342.3 | 88.6 | 86.2 |
| 2012 | 375.7 | 346.1 | 373.4 | 343.4 | 85.7 | 85.1 |
| 2013 | 361.8 | 347.4 | 359.2 | 344.5 | 83.0 | 84.0 |
| 2014 | 346.4 | 348.7 | 343.4 | 345.6 | 81.8 | 82.9 |
| 2015 | 355.0 | 350.1 | 350.8 | 346.8 | 81.8 | 81.8 |
| 2016 | 348.7 | 351.4 | 343.3 | 347.9 | 79.5 | 80.8 |
| 2017 | 337.6 | 352.7 | 330.3 | 349.0 | 79.1 | 79.8 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Breast, Female, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-17 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <50 | 1994-17 | 0.3* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <50 | 2005-17 | -1.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1990-17 | -0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <50 | 1991-17 | -0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <50 | 1989-17 | -2.2* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-17 | 0.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 50+ | 2004-17 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 50+ | 1998-17 | -1.7* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-17 | 0.4* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 50+ | 1992-17 | 0.3* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 50+ | 1993-17 | -1.3* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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