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Figure 22.1

CSR Figure 22.1: SEER Incidence, Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates by Race and Sex


Figure 22.1

Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 15.7 14.8 15.7 14.8 13.6 13.7
1976 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.6 13.4 13.6
1977 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.5 13.6 13.4
1978 13.9 14.3 13.9 14.3 13.5 13.3
1979 13.8 14.2 13.8 14.2 13.3 13.2
1980 13.7 14.1 13.7 14.1 12.8 13.0
1981 13.3 13.9 13.3 13.9 12.9 12.9
1982 13.5 13.8 13.5 13.8 12.8 12.8
1983 14.1 13.7 14.1 13.7 12.4 12.7
1984 13.9 13.5 13.9 13.5 12.6 12.5
1985 13.6 13.4 13.6 13.4 12.5 12.4
1986 13.5 13.3 13.5 13.3 12.2 12.3
1987 13.4 13.1 13.4 13.1 12.2 12.2
1988 13.4 13.0 13.4 13.0 12.2 12.2
1989 12.7 12.9 12.7 12.9 12.2 12.2
1990 12.5 12.8 12.5 12.8 12.2 12.1
1991 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.3 12.1
1992 12.9 12.5 12.9 12.5 12.2 12.1
1993 12.0 12.4 12.0 12.4 12.1 12.0
1994 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.0 12.0
1995 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.2 11.9 12.0
1996 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.9
1997 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.0 11.9
1998 13.0 12.7 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.9
1999 12.2 12.9 12.2 12.8 12.1 12.0
2000 12.9 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.0 12.0
2001 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.1 12.1
2002 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 12.1 12.1
2003 12.7 13.3 12.7 13.5 11.9 12.2
2004 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 12.2 12.2
2005 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.8 12.3 12.3
2006 14.5 13.7 14.5 14.0 12.4 12.3
2007 14.4 13.8 14.4 14.2 12.4 12.4
2008 14.3 14.0 14.3 14.2 12.4 12.4
2009 14.5 14.1 14.5 14.3 12.4 12.4
2010 13.6 14.2 13.6 14.3 12.6 12.5
2011 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 12.5 12.5
2012 15.1 14.5 15.0 14.4 12.7 12.6
2013 14.5 14.6 14.4 14.5 12.4 12.6
2014 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.5 12.7 12.7
2015 14.5 14.9 14.5 14.6 12.7 12.7
2016 14.5 15.0 14.3 14.7 12.7 12.8
2017 15.3 15.2 14.8 14.7 13.0 12.8

Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 18.1 20.6 18.1 20.7 16.3 16.3
1976 22.5 20.6 22.5 20.6 16.0 16.4
1977 19.4 20.5 19.4 20.5 17.1 16.5
1978 20.1 20.4 20.1 20.5 15.9 16.5
1979 19.1 20.3 19.1 20.4 15.9 16.6
1980 21.8 20.3 21.8 20.3 16.5 16.7
1981 20.9 20.2 20.9 20.2 17.0 16.8
1982 21.0 20.1 21.0 20.1 17.1 16.9
1983 23.1 20.0 23.1 20.1 18.1 17.0
1984 18.4 20.0 18.4 20.0 17.5 17.1
1985 25.3 19.9 25.3 19.9 17.3 17.2
1986 20.2 19.8 20.2 19.8 16.7 17.2
1987 19.0 19.7 19.0 19.8 17.4 17.3
1988 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.7 17.1 17.4
1989 16.1 19.6 16.1 19.6 17.7 17.5
1990 18.8 19.5 18.8 19.5 18.1 17.6
1991 18.2 19.4 18.2 19.4 16.9 17.7
1992 19.8 19.4 19.8 19.4 18.2 17.8
1993 18.9 19.3 18.9 19.3 17.6 17.5
1994 21.5 19.2 21.5 19.2 17.7 17.3
1995 20.4 19.2 20.4 19.1 15.8 17.0
1996 19.7 19.1 19.7 19.1 16.4 16.7
1997 19.5 19.0 19.5 19.0 16.4 16.5
1998 16.4 19.0 16.4 18.9 16.5 16.2
1999 19.5 18.9 19.5 18.8 16.6 16.0
2000 18.2 18.8 18.2 18.8 15.8 15.8
2001 15.5 18.7 15.5 18.7 15.1 15.5
2002 14.9 18.7 14.9 18.6 15.5 15.5
2003 17.1 18.6 17.1 18.6 15.5 15.4
2004 19.5 18.5 19.5 18.5 15.6 15.4
2005 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.4 15.5 15.3
2006 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 14.9 15.3
2007 16.4 18.3 16.4 18.3 15.6 15.2
2008 19.4 18.3 19.4 18.2 15.1 15.2
2009 20.5 18.2 20.5 18.1 15.0 15.1
2010 19.3 18.1 19.3 18.1 15.7 15.1
2011 17.9 18.1 17.8 18.0 14.8 15.1
2012 16.1 18.0 16.1 17.9 14.5 15.0
2013 18.6 17.9 18.5 17.8 14.9 15.0
2014 20.1 17.9 20.1 17.8 15.0 14.9
2015 19.2 17.8 19.1 17.7 14.9 14.9
2016 17.2 17.7 17.1 17.6 14.9 14.8
2017 16.2 17.7 15.9 17.6 14.9 14.8

Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.3 8.4
1976 9.7 9.1 9.7 9.1 8.4 8.4
1977 9.5 9.2 9.5 9.3 8.6 8.5
1978 8.6 9.4 8.6 9.4 8.6 8.5
1979 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.5 8.6 8.6
1980 9.2 9.6 9.2 9.6 8.6 8.6
1981 9.9 9.7 9.9 9.7 8.8 8.7
1982 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 8.6 8.8
1983 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.0 8.9 8.8
1984 10.6 10.1 10.6 10.1 8.9 8.8
1985 10.3 10.1 10.3 10.1 8.8 8.8
1986 9.8 10.0 9.8 10.0 8.9 8.8
1987 9.6 10.0 9.6 10.0 8.9 8.9
1988 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 8.6 8.9
1989 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.8 8.8 8.9
1990 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.9 8.9
1991 9.8 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.0 8.9
1992 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.9
1993 9.3 9.6 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.9
1994 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.0 8.9
1995 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.9
1996 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.9
1997 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 8.8 8.9
1998 9.9 9.7 9.9 9.7 8.8 8.9
1999 9.3 9.8 9.3 9.8 9.0 9.0
2000 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.0 9.0
2001 9.5 10.0 9.5 10.0 9.1 9.0
2002 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.0 9.0
2003 10.4 10.2 10.4 10.2 9.0 9.1
2004 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 9.1 9.2
2005 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.4 9.3 9.2
2006 10.8 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.3 9.3
2007 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 9.2 9.3
2008 10.9 10.7 10.9 10.7 9.5 9.4
2009 11.5 10.8 11.5 10.8 9.4 9.4
2010 11.1 11.0 11.1 10.9 9.4 9.4
2011 10.5 11.1 10.5 11.0 9.4 9.4
2012 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.1 9.4 9.4
2013 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.2 9.3 9.4
2014 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 9.4 9.4
2015 11.7 11.5 11.6 11.5 9.4 9.4
2016 11.9 11.7 11.8 11.6 9.6 9.5
2017 11.2 11.8 10.9 11.7 9.5 9.5

Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages

Year Delay-Adjusted SEER IncidenceDelay-Adjusted SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
Observed SEER IncidenceObserved SEER Incidence
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
U.S. MortalityU.S. Mortality
Modeled (from Joinpoint)
1975 13.9 14.8 13.9 14.8 10.1 10.1
1976 14.0 14.8 14.0 14.8 10.5 10.3
1977 15.2 14.8 15.2 14.8 10.3 10.6
1978 11.5 14.8 11.5 14.9 10.7 10.9
1979 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.9 11.6 11.1
1980 15.5 14.8 15.5 14.9 11.8 11.4
1981 14.1 14.9 14.1 14.9 10.8 11.7
1982 14.0 14.9 14.0 14.9 11.9 12.0
1983 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 12.5 12.3
1984 16.3 14.9 16.3 14.9 13.1 12.6
1985 14.5 14.9 14.5 14.9 12.4 12.9
1986 15.6 14.9 15.6 14.9 13.0 13.2
1987 17.8 14.9 17.8 15.0 12.6 13.2
1988 17.4 15.0 17.4 15.0 12.7 13.1
1989 14.0 15.0 14.0 15.0 13.2 13.1
1990 12.6 15.0 12.6 15.0 13.2 13.1
1991 16.2 15.0 16.2 15.0 12.8 13.0
1992 15.8 15.0 15.8 15.0 13.4 13.0
1993 15.3 15.0 15.3 15.0 13.3 12.9
1994 14.5 15.1 14.5 15.0 13.4 12.9
1995 16.3 15.1 16.3 15.1 12.5 12.9
1996 14.9 15.1 14.9 15.1 13.0 12.8
1997 16.6 15.1 16.6 15.1 13.1 12.8
1998 13.9 15.1 13.9 15.1 13.1 12.7
1999 14.7 15.1 14.7 15.1 12.4 12.7
2000 13.4 15.1 13.4 15.1 12.7 12.7
2001 13.3 15.2 13.3 15.1 12.6 12.6
2002 16.2 15.2 16.2 15.1 12.4 12.6
2003 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.2 12.5 12.6
2004 13.5 15.2 13.5 15.2 12.2 12.5
2005 16.5 15.2 16.5 15.2 12.5 12.5
2006 15.8 15.2 15.8 15.2 12.6 12.4
2007 14.8 15.2 14.8 15.2 12.8 12.4
2008 15.8 15.3 15.8 15.2 12.6 12.4
2009 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.2 12.4 12.3
2010 15.6 15.3 15.6 15.2 12.1 12.3
2011 14.9 15.3 14.9 15.2 12.1 12.3
2012 17.1 15.3 17.1 15.3 12.5 12.2
2013 14.6 15.3 14.5 15.3 12.2 12.2
2014 14.2 15.4 14.1 15.3 11.8 12.2
2015 14.9 15.4 14.9 15.3 12.2 12.1
2016 15.3 15.4 15.2 15.3 12.2 12.1
2017 15.8 15.4 15.5 15.3 11.8 12.0

Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Pancreas, All Ages, 1975-2015

Data Series Year Range for APC APC
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male1994-170.9*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male2007-170.4
U.S. Mortality, White, Male1997-170.4*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male1975-17-0.4*
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male1975-17-0.4*
U.S. Mortality, Black, Male2001-17-0.3*
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female1996-171.1*
Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female1996-171.0*
U.S. Mortality, White, Female2006-170.1
Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female1975-170.1
Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female1975-170.1
U.S. Mortality, Black, Female1986-17-0.3*

Footnotes:

a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).

Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).

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