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Figure 22.1
Figure 22.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Pancreas, by Race and Sex
- Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
- Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 13.7 |
| 1976 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 13.6 |
| 1977 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.4 |
| 1978 | 13.9 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 13.3 |
| 1979 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 13.2 |
| 1980 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| 1981 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| 1982 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| 1983 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 12.7 |
| 1984 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
| 1985 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| 1986 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 12.3 |
| 1987 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| 1988 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| 1989 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| 1990 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| 1991 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| 1992 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| 1993 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| 1994 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 1995 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| 1996 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| 1997 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| 1998 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| 1999 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| 2000 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| 2001 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| 2002 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| 2003 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| 2004 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| 2005 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| 2006 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| 2007 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 2008 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 2009 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 2010 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
| 2011 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| 2012 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| 2013 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| 2014 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| 2015 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| 2016 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| 2017 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 18.1 | 20.6 | 18.1 | 20.7 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| 1976 | 22.5 | 20.6 | 22.5 | 20.6 | 16.0 | 16.4 |
| 1977 | 19.4 | 20.5 | 19.4 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 16.5 |
| 1978 | 20.1 | 20.4 | 20.1 | 20.5 | 15.9 | 16.5 |
| 1979 | 19.1 | 20.3 | 19.1 | 20.4 | 15.9 | 16.6 |
| 1980 | 21.8 | 20.3 | 21.8 | 20.3 | 16.5 | 16.7 |
| 1981 | 20.9 | 20.2 | 20.9 | 20.2 | 17.0 | 16.8 |
| 1982 | 21.0 | 20.1 | 21.0 | 20.1 | 17.1 | 16.9 |
| 1983 | 23.1 | 20.0 | 23.1 | 20.1 | 18.1 | 17.0 |
| 1984 | 18.4 | 20.0 | 18.4 | 20.0 | 17.5 | 17.1 |
| 1985 | 25.3 | 19.9 | 25.3 | 19.9 | 17.3 | 17.2 |
| 1986 | 20.2 | 19.8 | 20.2 | 19.8 | 16.7 | 17.2 |
| 1987 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 19.0 | 19.8 | 17.4 | 17.3 |
| 1988 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 17.1 | 17.4 |
| 1989 | 16.1 | 19.6 | 16.1 | 19.6 | 17.7 | 17.5 |
| 1990 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 18.1 | 17.6 |
| 1991 | 18.2 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 17.7 |
| 1992 | 19.8 | 19.4 | 19.8 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 17.8 |
| 1993 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 17.6 | 17.5 |
| 1994 | 21.5 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 19.2 | 17.7 | 17.3 |
| 1995 | 20.4 | 19.2 | 20.4 | 19.1 | 15.8 | 17.0 |
| 1996 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 16.4 | 16.7 |
| 1997 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 16.4 | 16.5 |
| 1998 | 16.4 | 19.0 | 16.4 | 18.9 | 16.5 | 16.2 |
| 1999 | 19.5 | 18.9 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
| 2000 | 18.2 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 18.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| 2001 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 15.1 | 15.5 |
| 2002 | 14.9 | 18.7 | 14.9 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| 2003 | 17.1 | 18.6 | 17.1 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 15.4 |
| 2004 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 15.6 | 15.4 |
| 2005 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 15.5 | 15.3 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 14.9 | 15.3 |
| 2007 | 16.4 | 18.3 | 16.4 | 18.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 |
| 2008 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 15.2 |
| 2009 | 20.5 | 18.2 | 20.5 | 18.1 | 15.0 | 15.1 |
| 2010 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 15.7 | 15.1 |
| 2011 | 17.9 | 18.1 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 14.8 | 15.1 |
| 2012 | 16.1 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 17.9 | 14.5 | 15.0 |
| 2013 | 18.6 | 17.9 | 18.5 | 17.8 | 14.9 | 15.0 |
| 2014 | 20.1 | 17.9 | 20.1 | 17.8 | 15.0 | 14.9 |
| 2015 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 19.1 | 17.7 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| 2016 | 17.2 | 17.7 | 17.1 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 14.8 |
| 2017 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 15.9 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 14.8 |
Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, White, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| 1976 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 1977 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| 1978 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| 1979 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 1980 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 1981 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| 1982 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| 1983 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 1984 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 1985 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| 1986 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| 1987 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 1988 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 8.9 |
| 1989 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 1990 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 1991 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| 1992 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 1993 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| 1994 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| 1995 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 1996 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| 1997 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 1998 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| 1999 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| 2000 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| 2001 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| 2002 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| 2003 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| 2004 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| 2005 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| 2006 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 2007 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| 2008 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| 2009 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2010 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2011 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2013 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| 2014 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2015 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| 2016 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| 2017 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Rates per 100,000 for Pancreas, Black, Female, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| 1976 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| 1977 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| 1978 | 11.5 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| 1979 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| 1980 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 11.4 |
| 1981 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| 1982 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| 1983 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| 1984 | 16.3 | 14.9 | 16.3 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 12.6 |
| 1985 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 12.9 |
| 1986 | 15.6 | 14.9 | 15.6 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 13.2 |
| 1987 | 17.8 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 13.2 |
| 1988 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 13.1 |
| 1989 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 13.1 |
| 1990 | 12.6 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 13.1 |
| 1991 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| 1992 | 15.8 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| 1993 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 12.9 |
| 1994 | 14.5 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 12.9 |
| 1995 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 12.9 |
| 1996 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| 1997 | 16.6 | 15.1 | 16.6 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 12.8 |
| 1998 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 12.7 |
| 1999 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 12.7 |
| 2000 | 13.4 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 15.1 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| 2001 | 13.3 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| 2002 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| 2003 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 12.6 |
| 2004 | 13.5 | 15.2 | 13.5 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 12.5 |
| 2005 | 16.5 | 15.2 | 16.5 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| 2006 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| 2007 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| 2008 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| 2009 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| 2010 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| 2011 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| 2012 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 12.2 |
| 2013 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| 2014 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 12.2 |
| 2015 | 14.9 | 15.4 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| 2016 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| 2017 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 12.0 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Pancreas, All Ages, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Male | 1994-17 | 0.9* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Male | 2007-17 | 0.4 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Male | 1997-17 | 0.4* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1975-17 | -0.4* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Male | 1975-17 | -0.4* |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Male | 2001-17 | -0.3* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Female | 1996-17 | 1.1* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Female | 1996-17 | 1.0* |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Female | 2006-17 | 0.1 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1975-17 | 0.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Female | 1975-17 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Female | 1986-17 | -0.3* |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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