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Figure 23.1
Figure 23.1
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Race
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 92.2 | 91.0 | 92.2 | 91.0 | 29.1 | 29.5 |
| 1976 | 97.3 | 93.6 | 97.3 | 93.6 | 29.9 | 29.8 |
| 1977 | 98.6 | 96.2 | 98.6 | 96.2 | 29.9 | 30.0 |
| 1978 | 97.7 | 98.9 | 97.7 | 98.9 | 30.6 | 30.2 |
| 1979 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 30.8 | 30.5 |
| 1980 | 105.0 | 104.6 | 105.0 | 104.6 | 30.8 | 30.7 |
| 1981 | 107.9 | 107.5 | 107.9 | 107.5 | 30.8 | 30.9 |
| 1982 | 107.3 | 110.5 | 107.3 | 110.5 | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| 1983 | 110.9 | 113.6 | 110.9 | 113.6 | 31.6 | 31.4 |
| 1984 | 110.1 | 116.8 | 110.1 | 116.8 | 31.6 | 31.7 |
| 1985 | 114.6 | 120.1 | 114.6 | 120.1 | 31.3 | 31.9 |
| 1986 | 119.0 | 123.5 | 119.0 | 123.5 | 32.5 | 32.2 |
| 1987 | 134.6 | 127.0 | 134.6 | 127.0 | 32.6 | 32.4 |
| 1988 | 138.8 | 130.6 | 138.8 | 130.6 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| 1989 | 146.2 | 151.5 | 146.2 | 151.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| 1990 | 172.9 | 175.7 | 172.9 | 175.7 | 35.7 | 35.5 |
| 1991 | 216.6 | 203.8 | 216.6 | 203.8 | 36.5 | 36.6 |
| 1992 | 238.7 | 236.4 | 238.7 | 236.4 | 36.3 | 36.4 |
| 1993 | 204.7 | 211.3 | 204.7 | 211.3 | 36.3 | 36.1 |
| 1994 | 174.5 | 188.9 | 174.5 | 188.9 | 35.6 | 35.8 |
| 1995 | 164.8 | 168.8 | 164.8 | 168.8 | 34.4 | 34.3 |
| 1996 | 165.7 | 169.1 | 165.7 | 169.0 | 33.0 | 32.8 |
| 1997 | 170.5 | 169.3 | 170.5 | 169.3 | 31.3 | 31.4 |
| 1998 | 167.8 | 169.5 | 167.8 | 169.5 | 29.9 | 30.1 |
| 1999 | 179.6 | 169.8 | 179.6 | 169.8 | 28.9 | 28.8 |
| 2000 | 179.8 | 170.0 | 179.8 | 170.0 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| 2001 | 183.4 | 170.3 | 183.4 | 170.3 | 27.0 | 26.9 |
| 2002 | 180.2 | 170.5 | 180.2 | 170.5 | 26.4 | 26.0 |
| 2003 | 167.0 | 170.7 | 167.0 | 170.8 | 25.0 | 25.1 |
| 2004 | 163.1 | 171.0 | 163.1 | 171.0 | 24.0 | 24.3 |
| 2005 | 152.6 | 171.2 | 152.6 | 171.3 | 23.3 | 23.5 |
| 2006 | 169.2 | 171.5 | 169.2 | 171.5 | 22.3 | 22.7 |
| 2007 | 171.5 | 171.7 | 171.5 | 171.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| 2008 | 154.3 | 159.6 | 154.3 | 159.4 | 21.3 | 21.2 |
| 2009 | 152.4 | 148.4 | 152.0 | 147.8 | 20.3 | 20.5 |
| 2010 | 145.9 | 137.9 | 145.1 | 137.2 | 20.1 | 19.8 |
| 2011 | 139.3 | 128.2 | 138.2 | 127.2 | 19.3 | 19.1 |
| 2012 | 112.3 | 119.2 | 111.2 | 118.0 | 18.1 | 18.5 |
| 2013 | 108.4 | 110.8 | 107.0 | 109.5 | 18.0 | 17.9 |
| 2014 | 100.3 | 103.0 | 98.8 | 101.6 | 17.9 | 17.9 |
| 2015 | 106.4 | 106.3 | 104.0 | 103.7 | 17.7 | 17.9 |
| 2016 | 107.8 | 109.7 | 104.5 | 105.8 | 18.2 | 17.9 |
| 2017 | 114.3 | 113.2 | 108.7 | 108.0 | 17.8 | 17.9 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, All Ages
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 141.2 | 144.7 | 141.2 | 144.7 | 55.5 | 55.3 |
| 1976 | 140.9 | 147.5 | 140.9 | 147.5 | 55.6 | 56.4 |
| 1977 | 159.2 | 150.4 | 159.2 | 150.4 | 56.4 | 57.4 |
| 1978 | 148.1 | 153.4 | 148.1 | 153.4 | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| 1979 | 161.9 | 156.5 | 161.9 | 156.5 | 59.2 | 59.6 |
| 1980 | 161.1 | 159.6 | 161.1 | 159.6 | 62.0 | 60.8 |
| 1981 | 162.0 | 162.7 | 162.0 | 162.7 | 63.6 | 61.9 |
| 1982 | 167.8 | 166.0 | 167.8 | 166.0 | 62.4 | 63.1 |
| 1983 | 171.1 | 169.3 | 171.1 | 169.3 | 64.6 | 64.3 |
| 1984 | 178.7 | 172.6 | 178.7 | 172.6 | 65.9 | 65.5 |
| 1985 | 170.4 | 176.1 | 170.4 | 176.1 | 67.3 | 66.8 |
| 1986 | 168.6 | 179.5 | 168.6 | 179.6 | 67.4 | 68.0 |
| 1987 | 189.4 | 183.1 | 189.4 | 183.1 | 68.9 | 69.3 |
| 1988 | 190.2 | 186.7 | 190.2 | 186.7 | 69.6 | 70.7 |
| 1989 | 191.8 | 190.4 | 191.8 | 190.5 | 71.7 | 72.9 |
| 1990 | 222.5 | 232.4 | 222.5 | 232.4 | 78.0 | 75.3 |
| 1991 | 289.8 | 283.5 | 289.8 | 283.5 | 78.2 | 77.7 |
| 1992 | 331.1 | 346.0 | 331.1 | 345.9 | 79.8 | 80.2 |
| 1993 | 347.9 | 329.9 | 347.9 | 329.9 | 81.9 | 82.8 |
| 1994 | 316.1 | 314.5 | 316.1 | 314.7 | 80.0 | 80.7 |
| 1995 | 286.1 | 299.9 | 286.1 | 300.2 | 78.2 | 78.6 |
| 1996 | 286.4 | 296.6 | 286.4 | 296.8 | 78.8 | 76.6 |
| 1997 | 288.4 | 293.2 | 288.4 | 293.4 | 74.3 | 74.7 |
| 1998 | 292.5 | 289.9 | 292.5 | 290.0 | 72.8 | 72.8 |
| 1999 | 297.1 | 286.7 | 297.1 | 286.7 | 70.1 | 70.9 |
| 2000 | 297.3 | 283.4 | 297.3 | 283.4 | 68.9 | 69.1 |
| 2001 | 280.7 | 280.3 | 280.7 | 280.2 | 67.8 | 66.5 |
| 2002 | 293.7 | 277.1 | 293.7 | 277.0 | 65.0 | 64.1 |
| 2003 | 266.1 | 274.0 | 266.1 | 273.8 | 60.4 | 61.7 |
| 2004 | 263.0 | 270.9 | 263.0 | 270.7 | 59.0 | 59.4 |
| 2005 | 256.9 | 267.9 | 256.9 | 267.6 | 57.0 | 57.1 |
| 2006 | 260.2 | 264.9 | 260.2 | 264.5 | 53.7 | 55.0 |
| 2007 | 272.3 | 261.9 | 272.3 | 261.5 | 54.9 | 52.9 |
| 2008 | 257.2 | 258.9 | 257.2 | 258.5 | 49.1 | 51.0 |
| 2009 | 248.8 | 256.0 | 247.8 | 255.5 | 49.4 | 49.0 |
| 2010 | 235.8 | 235.8 | 233.8 | 234.3 | 48.1 | 47.2 |
| 2011 | 225.8 | 217.2 | 223.1 | 214.9 | 44.0 | 44.3 |
| 2012 | 196.1 | 200.0 | 192.9 | 197.1 | 41.6 | 41.5 |
| 2013 | 189.8 | 184.2 | 185.9 | 180.7 | 39.1 | 38.9 |
| 2014 | 165.2 | 169.6 | 161.2 | 165.8 | 38.0 | 38.4 |
| 2015 | 175.1 | 177.0 | 169.9 | 171.0 | 37.6 | 37.9 |
| 2016 | 185.5 | 184.6 | 178.4 | 176.4 | 38.4 | 37.4 |
| 2017 | 192.5 | 192.5 | 180.9 | 181.9 | 36.4 | 36.9 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Prostate, Male, All Ages, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White | 2014-17 | 3.2 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White | 2014-17 | 2.0 |
| U.S. Mortality, White | 2013-17 | 0.0 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black | 2014-17 | 4.3* |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black | 2014-17 | 3.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black | 2013-17 | -1.4 |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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