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Figure 23.2
Figure 23.2
SEER Observed Incidence, SEER Delay Adjusted Incidence and US Death Rates a
Cancer of the Prostate, by Age and Race
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
- Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint.
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1976 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1977 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1978 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1979 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1980 | 14.7 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1981 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1982 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1983 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1984 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1985 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1986 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1987 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1988 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1989 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1990 | 29.0 | 30.7 | 29.0 | 30.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1991 | 39.5 | 37.8 | 39.5 | 37.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 1992 | 49.6 | 46.5 | 49.6 | 46.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 48.9 | 47.9 | 48.9 | 47.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1994 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 46.9 | 49.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1995 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 48.2 | 50.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 1996 | 52.2 | 52.5 | 52.2 | 52.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 1997 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 1998 | 53.2 | 55.7 | 53.2 | 55.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 1999 | 58.9 | 57.5 | 58.9 | 57.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 59.8 | 59.2 | 59.8 | 59.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2001 | 62.8 | 61.0 | 62.8 | 61.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 64.1 | 61.1 | 64.1 | 61.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 59.9 | 61.2 | 59.9 | 61.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 60.7 | 61.2 | 60.7 | 61.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2005 | 55.6 | 61.3 | 55.6 | 61.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 62.8 | 61.4 | 62.8 | 61.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2007 | 64.1 | 61.4 | 64.1 | 61.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 60.1 | 61.5 | 60.1 | 61.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 60.5 | 61.5 | 60.4 | 61.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 57.0 | 56.3 | 56.7 | 56.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | 55.5 | 51.4 | 55.1 | 51.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | 44.0 | 47.0 | 43.5 | 46.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | 42.5 | 42.9 | 42.0 | 42.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2014 | 39.7 | 39.2 | 39.1 | 38.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 40.0 | 40.1 | 39.2 | 39.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 40.4 | 40.9 | 39.3 | 39.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 2017 | 42.1 | 41.7 | 40.2 | 40.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages <65
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| 1976 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1977 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| 1978 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 1979 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 26.4 | 30.3 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1980 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 31.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| 1982 | 31.5 | 32.1 | 31.5 | 32.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| 1983 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 34.0 | 32.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 1984 | 37.0 | 33.5 | 37.0 | 33.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| 1985 | 31.6 | 34.1 | 31.6 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 1986 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| 1987 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 36.1 | 35.5 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| 1988 | 34.9 | 36.2 | 34.9 | 36.3 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| 1989 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 1990 | 44.8 | 46.8 | 44.8 | 46.8 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| 1991 | 57.6 | 59.1 | 57.6 | 59.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| 1992 | 78.8 | 74.7 | 78.8 | 74.7 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
| 1993 | 95.7 | 94.5 | 95.7 | 94.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 1994 | 96.2 | 97.0 | 96.2 | 97.0 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| 1995 | 101.0 | 99.7 | 101.0 | 99.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 1996 | 101.4 | 102.4 | 101.4 | 102.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 99.0 | 105.1 | 99.0 | 105.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| 1998 | 105.0 | 108.0 | 105.0 | 108.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| 1999 | 114.9 | 110.9 | 114.9 | 111.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 2000 | 117.7 | 113.9 | 117.7 | 114.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 117.1 | 116.9 | 117.1 | 117.1 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 2002 | 119.0 | 116.3 | 119.0 | 116.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 118.1 | 115.7 | 118.1 | 115.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| 2004 | 108.1 | 115.0 | 108.1 | 115.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2005 | 108.4 | 114.4 | 108.4 | 114.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 111.3 | 113.8 | 111.3 | 113.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| 2007 | 121.5 | 113.1 | 121.5 | 112.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 112.8 | 112.5 | 112.8 | 112.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2009 | 111.9 | 111.9 | 111.5 | 111.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | 107.7 | 111.3 | 106.8 | 110.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 106.7 | 102.9 | 105.4 | 102.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 94.1 | 95.2 | 92.6 | 93.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 2013 | 88.9 | 88.0 | 87.1 | 86.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 2014 | 79.3 | 81.4 | 77.5 | 79.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2015 | 87.2 | 85.0 | 84.7 | 82.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| 2016 | 87.2 | 88.7 | 83.9 | 84.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 2017 | 92.9 | 92.6 | 87.5 | 87.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, White, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 639.3 | 643.0 | 639.3 | 643.0 | 214.9 | 218.2 |
| 1976 | 674.0 | 657.5 | 674.0 | 657.5 | 220.8 | 220.0 |
| 1977 | 680.6 | 672.3 | 680.6 | 672.4 | 220.6 | 221.7 |
| 1978 | 671.0 | 687.5 | 671.0 | 687.5 | 226.8 | 223.4 |
| 1979 | 708.0 | 703.0 | 708.0 | 703.0 | 228.2 | 225.2 |
| 1980 | 729.2 | 718.9 | 729.2 | 718.9 | 227.4 | 227.0 |
| 1981 | 743.2 | 735.1 | 743.2 | 735.1 | 227.5 | 228.7 |
| 1982 | 740.0 | 751.7 | 740.0 | 751.7 | 229.8 | 230.5 |
| 1983 | 762.1 | 768.7 | 762.1 | 768.7 | 233.2 | 232.4 |
| 1984 | 759.1 | 786.1 | 759.1 | 786.1 | 233.5 | 234.2 |
| 1985 | 784.8 | 803.8 | 784.8 | 803.8 | 231.3 | 236.0 |
| 1986 | 815.5 | 822.0 | 815.5 | 821.9 | 239.7 | 237.9 |
| 1987 | 919.1 | 840.5 | 919.1 | 840.5 | 241.3 | 239.7 |
| 1988 | 943.9 | 946.5 | 943.9 | 946.5 | 247.1 | 247.4 |
| 1989 | 990.3 | 1065.8 | 990.3 | 1065.8 | 255.2 | 255.3 |
| 1990 | 1167.9 | 1200.2 | 1167.9 | 1200.2 | 264.0 | 263.5 |
| 1991 | 1441.2 | 1351.5 | 1441.2 | 1351.5 | 271.4 | 271.9 |
| 1992 | 1546.5 | 1521.9 | 1546.5 | 1522.0 | 270.3 | 270.6 |
| 1993 | 1281.8 | 1316.6 | 1281.8 | 1316.6 | 270.8 | 269.3 |
| 1994 | 1056.5 | 1139.0 | 1056.5 | 1138.9 | 266.0 | 268.0 |
| 1995 | 970.9 | 985.4 | 970.9 | 985.2 | 256.9 | 256.3 |
| 1996 | 950.4 | 978.3 | 950.4 | 978.2 | 246.4 | 245.2 |
| 1997 | 975.7 | 971.3 | 975.7 | 971.2 | 234.6 | 234.5 |
| 1998 | 960.4 | 964.3 | 960.4 | 964.3 | 223.4 | 224.3 |
| 1999 | 1014.4 | 957.4 | 1014.4 | 957.5 | 216.9 | 216.5 |
| 2000 | 1009.5 | 950.6 | 1009.5 | 950.7 | 208.3 | 208.9 |
| 2001 | 1016.9 | 943.8 | 1016.9 | 943.9 | 202.1 | 201.7 |
| 2002 | 983.1 | 937.0 | 983.1 | 937.2 | 197.5 | 194.6 |
| 2003 | 907.5 | 930.3 | 907.5 | 930.5 | 187.0 | 187.9 |
| 2004 | 871.2 | 923.6 | 871.2 | 923.9 | 179.5 | 181.3 |
| 2005 | 823.6 | 917.0 | 823.6 | 917.3 | 174.2 | 175.0 |
| 2006 | 905.3 | 910.4 | 905.3 | 910.8 | 165.8 | 168.9 |
| 2007 | 913.7 | 903.9 | 913.7 | 904.3 | 165.6 | 163.0 |
| 2008 | 804.9 | 838.1 | 804.9 | 836.7 | 158.3 | 157.4 |
| 2009 | 787.3 | 777.0 | 785.1 | 774.1 | 151.1 | 151.9 |
| 2010 | 760.3 | 720.4 | 756.1 | 716.2 | 148.6 | 146.6 |
| 2011 | 718.8 | 668.0 | 712.8 | 662.6 | 142.8 | 141.5 |
| 2012 | 585.0 | 619.3 | 578.6 | 613.1 | 133.6 | 136.6 |
| 2013 | 564.0 | 574.2 | 556.3 | 567.2 | 132.5 | 131.8 |
| 2014 | 519.6 | 532.4 | 511.0 | 524.8 | 131.9 | 131.8 |
| 2015 | 565.2 | 557.2 | 552.1 | 542.9 | 130.6 | 131.8 |
| 2016 | 573.7 | 583.2 | 555.1 | 561.6 | 133.8 | 131.8 |
| 2017 | 614.0 | 610.4 | 582.3 | 581.0 | 130.9 | 131.9 |
Rates per 100,000 for Prostate, Black, Male, 1975-2015, Ages 65+
| Year | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence | Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | Observed SEER Incidence | Observed SEER Incidence Modeled (from Joinpoint) | U.S. Mortality | U.S. Mortality Modeled (from Joinpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 932.0 | 950.1 | 932.0 | 950.1 | 394.0 | 391.6 |
| 1976 | 910.9 | 969.3 | 910.9 | 969.3 | 392.2 | 399.7 |
| 1977 | 1057.2 | 988.8 | 1057.2 | 988.8 | 398.7 | 408.0 |
| 1978 | 986.4 | 1008.7 | 986.4 | 1008.7 | 416.1 | 416.4 |
| 1979 | 1098.9 | 1029.0 | 1098.9 | 1029.0 | 422.9 | 425.0 |
| 1980 | 1041.4 | 1049.8 | 1041.4 | 1049.8 | 445.0 | 433.8 |
| 1981 | 1041.9 | 1070.9 | 1041.9 | 1070.9 | 454.4 | 442.8 |
| 1982 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 1109.8 | 1092.5 | 447.7 | 452.0 |
| 1983 | 1118.4 | 1114.5 | 1118.4 | 1114.5 | 462.5 | 461.3 |
| 1984 | 1158.1 | 1136.9 | 1158.1 | 1137.0 | 475.1 | 470.8 |
| 1985 | 1130.0 | 1159.8 | 1130.0 | 1159.9 | 482.7 | 480.6 |
| 1986 | 1098.3 | 1183.2 | 1098.3 | 1183.2 | 487.4 | 490.5 |
| 1987 | 1249.5 | 1207.0 | 1249.5 | 1207.1 | 499.0 | 500.7 |
| 1988 | 1263.8 | 1231.4 | 1263.8 | 1231.4 | 502.3 | 511.0 |
| 1989 | 1259.3 | 1256.2 | 1259.3 | 1256.2 | 518.5 | 528.7 |
| 1990 | 1450.9 | 1511.4 | 1450.9 | 1511.4 | 565.6 | 547.1 |
| 1991 | 1895.0 | 1818.6 | 1895.0 | 1818.4 | 570.2 | 566.0 |
| 1992 | 2075.2 | 2188.1 | 2075.2 | 2187.7 | 578.7 | 585.6 |
| 1993 | 2091.2 | 1991.7 | 2091.2 | 1992.0 | 599.1 | 605.9 |
| 1994 | 1835.7 | 1812.9 | 1835.7 | 1813.7 | 585.9 | 590.4 |
| 1995 | 1565.9 | 1650.1 | 1565.9 | 1651.4 | 572.5 | 575.3 |
| 1996 | 1564.7 | 1614.9 | 1564.7 | 1615.9 | 579.2 | 560.6 |
| 1997 | 1598.0 | 1580.5 | 1598.0 | 1581.1 | 544.2 | 546.3 |
| 1998 | 1588.7 | 1546.7 | 1588.7 | 1547.0 | 532.4 | 532.3 |
| 1999 | 1556.5 | 1513.7 | 1556.5 | 1513.7 | 514.8 | 518.7 |
| 2000 | 1539.0 | 1481.4 | 1539.0 | 1481.1 | 507.8 | 505.5 |
| 2001 | 1411.1 | 1449.8 | 1411.1 | 1449.2 | 499.7 | 492.5 |
| 2002 | 1501.3 | 1418.8 | 1501.3 | 1418.0 | 477.8 | 473.1 |
| 2003 | 1289.0 | 1388.5 | 1289.0 | 1387.5 | 441.0 | 454.5 |
| 2004 | 1334.4 | 1358.9 | 1334.4 | 1357.6 | 433.7 | 436.6 |
| 2005 | 1283.8 | 1329.9 | 1283.8 | 1328.4 | 417.8 | 419.4 |
| 2006 | 1289.7 | 1301.5 | 1289.7 | 1299.8 | 393.5 | 402.9 |
| 2007 | 1315.1 | 1273.7 | 1315.1 | 1271.8 | 403.0 | 387.1 |
| 2008 | 1255.9 | 1246.6 | 1255.9 | 1244.4 | 357.6 | 371.8 |
| 2009 | 1194.9 | 1219.9 | 1190.0 | 1217.6 | 359.7 | 357.2 |
| 2010 | 1121.2 | 1114.1 | 1111.7 | 1107.2 | 350.0 | 343.1 |
| 2011 | 1048.9 | 1017.5 | 1036.2 | 1006.7 | 318.6 | 321.1 |
| 2012 | 901.4 | 929.2 | 886.2 | 915.4 | 302.8 | 300.6 |
| 2013 | 887.9 | 848.6 | 868.8 | 832.4 | 282.5 | 281.3 |
| 2014 | 758.4 | 775.0 | 739.9 | 756.8 | 273.5 | 276.9 |
| 2015 | 783.1 | 810.1 | 759.0 | 782.0 | 270.7 | 272.7 |
| 2016 | 865.5 | 846.8 | 831.5 | 808.0 | 274.8 | 268.4 |
| 2017 | 881.2 | 885.2 | 826.6 | 834.8 | 261.3 | 264.3 |
Annual Percent Changes for the most recent trend in the data series as calculated by Joinpoint
Prostate, Male, 1975-2015
| Data Series | Year Range for APC | APC |
|---|---|---|
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2014-17 | 2.1 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages <65 | 2014-17 | 1.1 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages <65 | 2002-17 | -0.8* |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2014-17 | 4.4 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages <65 | 2014-17 | 3.3 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages <65 | 2012-17 | 0.0 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2014-17 | 4.7 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, White, Ages 65+ | 2014-17 | 3.5 |
| U.S. Mortality, White, Ages 65+ | 2013-17 | 0.0 |
| Delay-Adjusted SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2014-17 | 4.5 |
| Observed SEER Incidence, Black, Ages 65+ | 2014-17 | 3.3 |
| U.S. Mortality, Black, Ages 65+ | 2013-17 | -1.5 |
Footnotes:
a Source: SEER 9 areas and US Mortality Files (National Center for Health Statistics, CDC). Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1103).
Regression lines and APCs are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8, April 2020, National Cancer Institute.
The APC is the Annual Percent Change for the regression line segments.
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p < 0.05).
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