The results presented in this report are computed by a spatial projection model that predicts the number of cases in each county based on the sociodemographic and lifestyle profile for that county. The purpose is to present, for the first time, complete county and state maps and tables of rates and case counts for 1999 estimated by these new statistical models. From a national perspective, the maps included in the report allow examination of the geographic distribution of cancer incidence across the country and of the magnitude of differences among states. Estimates of the numbers of new cancer cases and rates expected in an area are useful for cancer surveillance, cancer control, health resource planning, and quality control activities.
Download the Report
US Predicted Cancer Incidence, 1999 monograph (PDF, 6.1 MB)
Pickle LW, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK. US Predicted Cancer Incidence, 1999: Complete Maps by County and State From Spatial Projection Models. NCI Cancer Surveillance Monograph Series, Number 5. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, 2003. NIH Publication No. 03-5435.
The following article provides detail on the parameter estimation methods and validation studies.
Pickle LW, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK. Predicting cancer incidence in non-SEER counties. Proceedings of the Biometrics Section of the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, 2001; 45-52 (PDF, 584 KB)
The data sources used to calculate US predicted cancer incidence rates include:
- Incidence data reported by the SEER cancer registries (480 counties) as first diagnosed during 1999 for lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, and prostate analyzed separately, all other cancer types combined.
- Mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics for all 3074 US counties. Stratified rates for death due to lung and bronchus, colorectal, breast, prostate, and other cancer were used as predictors of incidence for those cancers.
- Population intercensal estimates for 1999, modified after the 2000 Census, provided by the Census Bureau.
- Sociodemographic variables constructed using the Area Resource File (Bureau of Health Professions 1999), Census data (GeoLytics Inc. 1998), and public-use data for 1992-1998 from the CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys.
- Currently, the only other source of complete estimates of expected case counts and rates by state is the American Cancer Society's annual report Cancer Facts and Figures.
- For a list of sources of cancer incidence statistics see Where can I find Cancer Incidence Statistics? on the Surveillance Research Program web site.
- The Surveillance Research Program also developed the delay model to adjust cancer incidence rates for reporting delay, the time elapsed before a diagnosed cancer case is reported to the NCI.
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