The most recent preliminary estimates of incidence rates and trends are for 2000-2017. Users should refer to the official rates for 1975-2018 in SEER*Explorer, which was released in April 2021.

Analysis Methods

The delay model is applied to the February data to obtain delay-adjusted rates. To determine the trends, a Joinpoint model is then fit to the delay-adjusted rates.

Validation

To validate the use of the early February submission data for predicting the eventual rates and trends, the delay-adjusted rates derived from the November 2018 submission were compared to those from the February 2018 submission. The comparisons are based on (1) the delay-adjusted rates (2) the number of trend changes and (3) the most recent trend. If the comparisons between the two submissions of the same year yield similar results, it validates the use of February submission data for early estimation of incidence rates. In general, the February 2018 and November 2018 estimates are comparable, though some differences would be expected.

Validation Table

Cancer Site Sex Race 2016 Age-Adjusted Rates Annual Percent Change, 2000-2016
APC (Year Range)
Average Annual Percent Change, 2012-2016
Observed Delay-Adjusted
February 2018 Submission November 2018 Submission February 2018 Submission November 2018 Submission February 2018 Submission November 2018 Submission February 2018 Submission November 2018 Submission
* The APC/AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<0.05).
All SitesMaleAll Races417.8458.4460.1471.1-0.7* (2000-08)
-2.1* (2008-16)
-0.7* (2000-08)
-2.0* (2008-16)
-2.1*-2.0*
White419.7462.0468.1478.2-0.6* (2000-08)
-2.0* (2008-16)
-0.6* (2000-08)
-1.9* (2008-16)
-2.0*-1.9*
Black448.9501.3509.7527.8-1.3* (2000-09)
-3.0* (2009-16)
-1.8* (2000-06)
-0.2 (2006-09)
-3.7* (2009-14)
-0.2 (2014-16)
-3.0*-1.9*
FemaleAll Races377.4402.1414.0412.9-0.0 (2000-16)-0.1 (2000-16)-0.0-0.1
White389.3415.2432.3429.40.0 (2000-16)-0.0 (2000-16)0.0-0.0
Black360.8388.4408.4408.80.1* (2000-16)0.1 (2000-16)0.1*0.1
All Sites (Ages 0-19)MaleAll Races18.119.219.519.60.7* (2000-16)0.7* (2000-16)0.7*0.7*
White19.320.321.020.90.6* (2000-16)0.6* (2000-16)0.6*0.6*
Black12.514.213.914.91.2* (2000-16)1.3* (2000-16)1.2*1.3*
FemaleAll Races17.017.718.318.11.2* (2000-16)1.2* (2000-16)1.2*1.2*
White17.918.719.419.21.1* (2000-16)1.1* (2000-16)1.1*1.1*
Black12.012.513.313.11.5* (2000-16)1.4* (2000-16)1.5*1.4*
Brain and Other Nervous SystemMaleAll Races6.77.17.47.3-0.2* (2000-16)-0.3* (2000-16)-0.2*-0.3*
White7.47.88.38.1-0.1 (2000-16)-0.2 (2000-16)-0.1-0.2
Black4.04.34.54.5-0.1 (2000-16)-0.2 (2000-16)-0.1-0.2
FemaleAll Races4.64.95.15.1-0.2 (2000-16)-0.3 (2000-16)-0.2-0.3
White5.15.55.85.7-0.1 (2000-16)-0.2 (2000-16)-0.1-0.2
Black2.83.23.23.3-0.6 (2000-16)-0.6 (2000-16)-0.6-0.6
BreastFemaleAll Races119.5124.6125.3126.6-2.3* (2000-04)
0.3* (2004-16)
-2.3* (2000-04)
0.3* (2004-16)
0.3*0.3*
White121.5127.0127.9129.0-2.4* (2000-04)
0.2 (2004-16)
-2.5* (2000-04)
0.2 (2004-16)
0.20.2
Black118.7125.1127.1129.40.6* (2000-16)0.6* (2000-16)0.6*0.6*
CervixFemaleAll Races7.17.47.57.6-3.8* (2000-03)
-1.4* (2003-13)
1.1 (2013-16)
-3.8* (2000-03)
-1.5* (2003-13)
1.2 (2013-16)
0.50.5
White7.27.57.77.7-4.8* (2000-03)
-0.0 (2003-08)
-2.2* (2008-13)
2.9* (2013-16)
-4.8* (2000-03)
-0.1 (2003-08)
-2.2* (2008-13)
2.8* (2013-16)
1.6*1.5*
Black7.37.87.98.1-2.8* (2000-16)-2.7* (2000-16)-2.8*-2.7*
Colon and RectumMaleAll Races39.942.642.843.4-2.7* (2000-16)-2.5* (2000-08)
-4.1* (2008-11)
-1.4* (2011-16)
-2.7*-1.4*
White38.941.642.042.4-3.0* (2000-12)
-1.6 (2012-16)
-3.0* (2000-12)
-1.4 (2012-16)
-1.6-1.4
Black46.350.651.052.5-2.5* (2000-16)-2.5* (2000-16)-2.5*-2.5*
FemaleAll Races31.333.433.634.0-2.0* (2000-08)
-3.5* (2008-11)
-1.3* (2011-16)
-2.1* (2000-08)
-3.0* (2008-13)
-0.2 (2013-16)
-1.3*-0.9
White31.033.133.533.7-2.4* (2000-13)
-0.4 (2013-16)
-2.4* (2000-13)
-0.2 (2013-16)
-0.9-0.8
Black36.439.340.140.8-1.3* (2000-06)
-2.9* (2006-16)
-1.3* (2000-06)
-2.9* (2006-16)
-2.9*-2.9*
Corpus and Uterus NOSFemaleAll Races26.127.127.227.4-1.5 (2000-03)
1.4* (2003-16)
-1.5 (2000-03)
1.5* (2003-16)
1.4*1.5*
White26.627.627.927.9-1.9 (2000-03)
1.3* (2003-16)
-1.9 (2000-03)
1.3* (2003-16)
1.3*1.3*
Black25.726.927.227.62.3* (2000-16)2.4* (2000-16)2.3*2.4*
EsophagusMaleAll Races6.36.86.87.0-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0*-1.0*
White6.87.37.37.5-0.4* (2000-16)-0.4* (2000-16)-0.4*-0.4*
Black5.36.05.76.1-4.8* (2000-16)-4.7* (2000-16)-4.8*-4.7*
FemaleAll Races1.51.61.71.7-1.5* (2000-16)-1.6* (2000-16)-1.5*-1.6*
White1.61.71.71.7-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0*-1.0*
Black1.82.02.02.0-3.9* (2000-16)-3.9* (2000-16)-3.9*-3.9*
Hodgkin LymphomaMaleAll Races2.72.82.82.91.1 (2000-07)
-1.6* (2007-16)
1.0 (2000-07)
-1.5* (2007-16)
-1.6*-1.5*
White2.83.03.03.11.1 (2000-07)
-1.8* (2007-16)
1.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-16)
-1.8*-1.7*
Black2.62.72.82.80.3 (2000-16)0.3 (2000-16)0.30.3
FemaleAll Races2.12.22.32.32.3 (2000-05)
-1.6* (2005-16)
2.3 (2000-05)
-1.6* (2005-16)
-1.6*-1.6*
White2.22.42.42.41.1 (2000-07)
-2.1* (2007-16)
2.1 (2000-05)
-1.7* (2005-16)
-2.1*-1.7*
Black2.32.42.52.40.4 (2000-16)0.3 (2000-16)0.40.3
Kidney and Renal PelvisMaleAll Races20.321.822.322.53.0* (2000-08)
0.5 (2008-16)
3.0* (2000-08)
0.5* (2008-16)
0.50.5*
White21.022.523.123.33.0* (2000-08)
0.5* (2008-16)
2.9* (2000-08)
0.6* (2008-16)
0.5*0.6*
Black22.324.825.026.03.2* (2000-09)
-0.1 (2009-16)
3.4* (2000-08)
0.4 (2008-16)
-0.10.4
FemaleAll Races10.110.911.111.23.6* (2000-07)
0.5 (2007-16)
3.6* (2000-07)
0.5 (2007-16)
0.50.5
White10.511.311.511.63.7* (2000-07)
0.5 (2007-16)
4.1* (2000-06)
0.7* (2006-16)
0.50.7*
Black12.013.313.513.93.8* (2000-09)
0.3 (2009-16)
4.0* (2000-08)
0.8 (2008-16)
0.30.8
LarynxMaleAll Races4.54.84.94.9-4.3* (2000-03)
-1.8* (2003-11)
-3.6* (2011-16)
-4.4* (2000-03)
-1.7* (2003-10)
-3.3* (2010-16)
-3.6*-3.3*
White4.64.84.95.0-2.3* (2000-16)-2.3* (2000-16)-2.3*-2.3*
Black7.07.27.57.4-3.3* (2000-16)-3.3* (2000-16)-3.3*-3.3*
FemaleAll Races1.01.01.01.0-2.1* (2000-16)-2.1* (2000-16)-2.1*-2.1*
White1.01.11.11.1-2.0* (2000-16)-2.0* (2000-16)-2.0*-2.0*
Black1.31.51.41.5-1.9* (2000-16)-1.7* (2000-16)-1.9*-1.7*
LeukemiaMaleAll Races15.117.019.118.9-0.4 (2000-07)
3.1 (2007-10)
0.6 (2010-16)
-0.5 (2000-07)
3.0 (2007-10)
0.4 (2010-16)
0.60.4
White15.817.920.720.4-0.1 (2000-06)
1.5* (2006-16)
-0.1 (2000-06)
1.4* (2006-16)
1.5*1.4*
Black11.813.615.215.30.5 (2000-16)0.5 (2000-16)0.50.5
FemaleAll Races9.110.111.411.2-0.1 (2000-05)
1.3* (2005-16)
0.8* (2000-16)1.3*0.8*
White9.610.612.412.11.1* (2000-16)1.0* (2000-16)1.1*1.0*
Black7.88.810.09.9-1.2 (2000-07)
2.2* (2007-16)
-1.2 (2000-07)
2.2* (2007-16)
2.2*2.2*
Liver and Intrahepatic Bile DuctMaleAll Races11.513.013.913.64.3* (2000-09)
1.8* (2009-16)
4.2* (2000-09)
2.3* (2009-14)
-1.4 (2014-16)
1.8*0.4
White10.411.812.612.30.4 (2000-02)
5.6* (2002-08)
3.0* (2008-14)
-0.6 (2014-16)
-0.8 (2000-02)
7.6* (2002-05)
3.6* (2005-14)
-2.2 (2014-16)
1.20.6
Black13.815.716.716.53.2* (2000-16)3.1* (2000-16)3.2*3.1*
FemaleAll Races4.24.75.04.93.1* (2000-16)2.9* (2000-16)3.1*2.9*
White3.74.24.54.40.3 (2000-03)
4.0* (2003-16)
-0.3 (2000-03)
4.3* (2003-14)
-0.8 (2014-16)
4.0*1.7
Black4.95.66.05.83.3* (2000-16)3.2* (2000-16)3.3*3.2*
Lung and BronchusMaleAll Races52.057.257.858.5-2.0* (2000-09)
-3.2* (2009-16)
-1.9* (2000-08)
-3.1* (2008-16)
-3.2*-3.1*
White51.857.257.958.6-1.8* (2000-08)
-3.1* (2008-16)
-1.8* (2000-08)
-3.1* (2008-16)
-3.1*-3.1*
Black65.573.773.476.0-2.9* (2000-16)-2.8* (2000-16)-2.9*-2.8*
FemaleAll Races41.144.745.645.70.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-16)
0.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-16)
-1.7*-1.7*
White43.347.248.348.30.1 (2000-07)
-1.6* (2007-16)
0.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-16)
-1.6*-1.7*
Black39.843.844.545.21.2 (2000-06)
-1.8* (2006-16)
1.2* (2000-06)
-1.8* (2006-16)
-1.8*-1.8*
Melanoma of the SkinMaleAll Races25.230.128.530.81.7* (2000-16)1.8* (2000-16)1.7*1.8*
White29.935.434.937.02.0* (2000-16)2.0* (2000-16)2.0*2.0*
Black0.80.91.00.9-0.8 (2000-16)-0.9 (2000-16)-0.8-0.9
FemaleAll Races15.718.217.718.61.4* (2000-16)1.4* (2000-16)1.4*1.4*
White19.422.222.523.11.7* (2000-16)1.7* (2000-16)1.7*1.7*
Black0.80.80.90.80.4 (2000-16)0.2 (2000-16)0.40.2
MyelomaMaleAll Races7.58.39.29.11.7* (2000-16)1.7* (2000-16)1.7*1.7*
White7.17.88.88.61.7* (2000-16)1.6* (2000-16)1.7*1.6*
Black13.715.717.417.81.6* (2000-16)1.6* (2000-16)1.6*1.6*
FemaleAll Races4.95.56.06.0-0.0 (2000-06)
2.2* (2006-16)
-0.1 (2000-06)
2.1* (2006-16)
2.2*2.1*
White4.34.85.45.3-0.3 (2000-06)
2.2* (2006-16)
-0.0 (2000-07)
2.1* (2007-16)
2.2*2.1*
Black10.812.613.914.42.0* (2000-16)2.0* (2000-16)2.0*2.0*
Non-Hodgkin LymphomaMaleAll Races20.822.723.023.40.7* (2000-08)
-0.5 (2008-16)
0.8* (2000-07)
-0.3* (2007-16)
-0.5-0.3*
White21.723.724.324.71.0* (2000-07)
-0.4 (2007-16)
0.9* (2000-07)
-0.3* (2007-16)
-0.4-0.3*
Black16.017.418.118.20.1 (2000-16)0.1 (2000-16)0.10.1
FemaleAll Races14.415.615.916.11.1 (2000-04)
-0.4* (2004-16)
1.0 (2000-04)
-0.4* (2004-16)
-0.4*-0.4*
White15.016.316.817.00.6 (2000-06)
-0.5* (2006-16)
0.6 (2000-06)
-0.4* (2006-16)
-0.5*-0.4*
Black11.212.112.612.60.4* (2000-16)0.3 (2000-16)0.4*0.3
Oral Cavity and PharynxMaleAll Races16.117.117.517.5-0.5 (2000-05)
1.0* (2005-16)
-0.5 (2000-05)
1.0* (2005-16)
1.0*1.0*
White16.917.918.618.50.1 (2000-05)
1.4* (2005-16)
1.1* (2000-16)1.4*1.1*
Black12.513.513.814.0-4.3* (2000-05)
-1.4* (2005-16)
-4.4* (2000-05)
-1.3* (2005-16)
-1.4*-1.3*
FemaleAll Races5.86.26.36.40.1 (2000-16)0.1 (2000-16)0.10.1
White6.06.46.66.60.4* (2000-16)0.4* (2000-16)0.4*0.4*
Black4.34.84.85.0-0.9* (2000-16)-0.9* (2000-16)-0.9*-0.9*
OvaryFemaleAll Races9.910.410.810.7-1.5* (2000-16)-1.5* (2000-16)-1.5*-1.5*
White10.310.911.311.2-1.6* (2000-16)-1.6* (2000-16)-1.6*-1.6*
Black8.59.19.59.5-0.8* (2000-16)-0.8* (2000-16)-0.8*-0.8*
PancreasMaleAll Races12.914.114.814.40.9* (2000-16)0.8* (2000-16)0.9*0.8*
White12.914.114.914.51.0* (2000-16)1.0* (2000-16)1.0*1.0*
Black14.216.216.416.70.2 (2000-16)0.2 (2000-16)0.20.2
FemaleAll Races10.211.111.711.40.9* (2000-16)0.8* (2000-16)0.9*0.8*
White10.211.011.711.41.1* (2000-16)1.0* (2000-16)1.1*1.0*
Black11.913.413.813.90.1 (2000-16)0.1 (2000-16)0.10.1
ProstateMaleAll Races94.8104.7107.0109.1-1.8* (2000-10)
-9.0* (2010-14)
3.0 (2014-16)
-1.8* (2000-10)
-9.0* (2010-14)
3.9 (2014-16)
-3.2-2.7
White86.296.7101.5103.4-1.5 (2000-08)
-5.8* (2008-16)
-1.9* (2000-10)
-9.4* (2010-14)
4.0 (2014-16)
-5.8*-2.9
Black147.7165.4176.3179.7-2.0* (2000-11)
-9.6* (2011-14)
3.1 (2014-16)
-2.1* (2000-11)
-9.6* (2011-14)
4.0 (2014-16)
-3.5-3.0
StomachMaleAll Races8.38.89.09.0-1.4* (2000-16)-1.4* (2000-16)-1.4*-1.4*
White7.58.08.28.2-1.1* (2000-16)-1.1* (2000-16)-1.1*-1.1*
Black11.312.412.412.8-0.7 (2000-08)
-8.1 (2008-11)
2.6 (2011-14)
-6.7 (2014-16)
-0.8 (2000-08)
-8.1 (2008-11)
2.6 (2011-14)
-5.7 (2014-16)
-2.1-1.6
FemaleAll Races4.85.25.25.3-0.6* (2000-16)-0.5* (2000-16)-0.6*-0.5*
White4.24.64.64.7-0.3 (2000-16)-0.2 (2000-16)-0.3-0.2
Black6.46.77.16.9-1.7* (2000-16)-1.7* (2000-16)-1.7*-1.7*
TestisMaleAll Races5.65.95.96.00.8* (2000-16)0.8* (2000-16)0.8*0.8*
White6.67.07.17.20.8* (2000-16)0.8* (2000-16)0.8*0.8*
Black1.51.71.61.71.0 (2000-16)1.2 (2000-16)1.01.2
ThyroidMaleAll Races7.07.37.37.45.7* (2000-11)
0.9 (2011-16)
5.7* (2000-11)
1.0 (2011-16)
0.91.0
White7.47.77.97.96.5* (2000-09)
2.0* (2009-16)
6.1* (2000-10)
1.5* (2010-16)
2.0*1.5*
Black3.43.63.63.73.6* (2000-16)3.6* (2000-16)3.6*3.6*
FemaleAll Races20.321.021.321.46.9* (2000-09)
2.4* (2009-14)
-1.9 (2014-16)
6.9* (2000-09)
2.4* (2009-14)
-1.8 (2014-16)
0.20.3
White21.622.422.922.87.1* (2000-09)
2.3* (2009-14)
-1.5 (2014-16)
7.1* (2000-09)
2.3* (2009-14)
-1.6 (2014-16)
0.40.3
Black12.613.113.613.55.7* (2000-14)
-4.4 (2014-16)
5.7* (2000-14)
-4.5 (2014-16)
0.60.5
Urinary BladderMaleAll Races29.131.931.732.70.1 (2000-07)
-1.6* (2007-16)
-0.0 (2000-07)
-1.5* (2007-16)
-1.6*-1.5*
White31.634.634.935.9-0.3 (2000-10)
-1.9* (2010-16)
0.0 (2000-07)
-1.4* (2007-16)
-1.9*-1.4*
Black17.319.519.420.50.4 (2000-13)
-4.6 (2013-16)
-0.1 (2000-16)-3.4-0.1
FemaleAll Races7.48.08.18.2-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0* (2000-16)-1.0*-1.0*
White7.98.68.88.9-1.0* (2000-16)-0.9* (2000-16)-1.0*-0.9*
Black6.57.07.37.3-0.7* (2000-16)-0.7* (2000-16)-0.7*-0.7*