An official website of the United States government
Preliminary Trends and Rates are also available in SEER*Explorer.
What are these data?
Preliminary Cancer Incidence Estimates provide an early look at recent cancer incidence trends before official SEER incidence statistics become available. The estimates are based on selected SEER registries and statistical methods that adjust for reporting delays in the most recent diagnosis year.
Preliminary Incidence Rates are available in SEER*Explorer under Choose a Statistic as Preliminary Incidence Rates.
Use with caution: Preliminary estimates are intended to identify potential emerging trends and may change as additional cancer cases are reported and processed. Official SEER incidence statistics remain the authoritative source for cancer incidence reporting.
The table below summarizes the key differences between official SEER incidence statistics and preliminary incidence estimates.
| Feature | Official Statistics | Preliminary Estimates |
|---|---|---|
| Data submission | November submission (previous year) | February submission (current year) |
| Release date | April (current year) | June (current year) |
| Diagnosis years included | Diagnosis years with nearly complete reporting | Includes one additional, more recent diagnosis year beyond the official statistics |
| Registry coverage | All eligible SEER registries | Selected registries meeting predefined completeness criteria |
| Data completeness | Typically more than 98% complete | Lower completeness because reporting is still ongoing |
| Delay adjustment | Relatively small | Larger to account for incomplete reporting of the most recent diagnosis year |
| Purpose | Official SEER incidence statistics | Early indication of recent cancer incidence trends |
| Subject to revision? | Unlikely, except for rare corrections | Yes, as additional cases are reported and processed |
Example: Consider the 2026 reporting year. The November 2025 submission includes incidence data through 2023 and is used for official statistics released on April 2026. The February 2026 submission includes early data for 2024, providing a first look at recent trends. Because reporting for 2024 is still incomplete, selected registries and higher delay-adjustors are used to estimate these preliminary incidence estimates after April 2026.
What's New About This Year's Preliminary Estimates?
- The final selection of included registries was based on completeness measure and additional criteria (see Methodology for Deriving Preliminary Incidence Rates for details).
This website contains the following sections:
- Preliminary Incidence Rates and Trends 2000- 2024
- Methodology for Deriving Preliminary Incidence Rates
- Validation
- Historical Background and References for Preliminary Estimates
When using these estimates, please refer to them as preliminary and reference them as suggested below.
Suggested Citation
SEER Preliminary Cancer Incidence Rate Estimates for diagnosis years 2000 to 2024, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, https://seer.cancer.gov/statistics/preliminary-estimates/, based on the February 2026 SEER data submission. Posted to the SEER web site and SEER Explorer, July 2026.
