Analysis Methods

The delay model is applied to the February data to obtain delay-adjusted rates. To determine the trends, a Joinpoint model is then fit to the delay-adjusted rates.

Validation

To validate the use of the early February submission data for predicting the eventual rates and trends, the delay-adjusted rates derived from the November 2017 submission were compared to those from the February 2017 submission. The comparisons are based on (1) the delay-adjusted rates (2) the number of trend changes and (3) the most recent trend. If the comparisons between the two submissions of the same year yield similar results, it validates the use of February submission data for early estimation of incidence rates. In general, the February 2017 and November 2017 estimates are comparable, though some differences would be expected.

Validation Table

* The APC is significantly different from zero (p<0.05).

Cancer Site Sex Race 2015 Age-Adjusted Rates Annual Percent Change, 2000-2015
APC (Year Range)
Average Annual Percent Change, 2011-2015
Observed Delay-Adjusted
February 2017 Submission November 2017 Submission February 2017 Submission November 2017 Submission February 2017 Submission November 2017 Submission February 2017 Submission November 2017 Submission
* The APC is significantly different from zero (p<0.05).
All SitesMaleAll Races422.3462.8464.7476.1-0.7* (2000-09)
-2.5* (2009-15)
-0.7* (2000-08)
-2.1* (2008-15)
-2.5*-2.1*
White425.0467.6473.0484.4-0.6* (2000-09)
-2.4* (2009-15)
-0.6* (2000-08)
-2.1* (2008-15)
-2.4*-2.1*
Black440.5497.0498.4524.4-1.8* (2000-06)
0.2 (2006-09)
-3.9* (2009-15)
-1.3* (2000-09)
-3.1* (2009-15)
-3.9*-3.1*
FemaleAll Races384.3408.8421.1420.2-0.0 (2000-15)-0.0 (2000-15)-0.0-0.0
White396.4422.2439.2436.80.0 (2000-15)0.0 (2000-15)0.00.0
Black363.8390.6410.4411.90.2* (2000-15)0.2* (2000-15)0.2*0.2*
All Sites (Ages 0-19)MaleAll Races18.019.219.319.60.7* (2000-15)0.7* (2000-15)0.7*0.7*
White19.120.420.721.00.5* (2000-15)0.6* (2000-15)0.5*0.6*
Black11.713.412.914.11.2* (2000-15)1.3* (2000-15)1.2*1.3*
FemaleAll Races17.318.618.619.01.2* (2000-15)1.2* (2000-15)1.2*1.2*
White18.720.120.320.61.1* (2000-15)1.1* (2000-15)1.1*1.1*
Black10.412.111.412.61.5* (2000-15)1.6* (2000-15)1.5*1.6*
Brain and Other Nervous SystemMaleAll Races6.77.37.57.5-0.1 (2000-15)-0.2 (2000-15)-0.1-0.2
White7.58.18.38.3-0.1 (2000-15)-0.1 (2000-15)-0.1-0.1
Black4.04.54.64.7-0.1 (2000-15)0.0 (2000-15)-0.10.0
FemaleAll Races5.05.45.65.6-0.1 (2000-15)-0.1 (2000-15)-0.1-0.1
White5.66.16.26.3-0.0 (2000-15)-0.0 (2000-15)-0.0-0.0
Black3.13.53.53.7-0.4 (2000-15)-0.3 (2000-15)-0.4-0.3
BreastFemaleAll Races121.6126.5127.5128.5-2.3* (2000-04)
0.3* (2004-15)
-2.3* (2000-04)
0.3* (2004-15)
0.3*0.3*
White123.7128.6130.3130.7-2.5* (2000-04)
0.2 (2004-15)
-2.5* (2000-04)
0.2 (2004-15)
0.20.2
Black121.3127.4129.7132.10.6* (2000-15)0.7* (2000-15)0.6*0.7*
CervixFemaleAll Races7.17.57.67.6-4.1* (2000-03)
-1.2* (2003-15)
-3.7* (2000-03)
-1.5* (2003-13)
2.0 (2013-15)
-1.2*0.2
White7.27.67.77.8-4.2* (2000-03)
-0.9* (2003-15)
-4.3 (2000-03)
-0.8* (2003-15)
-0.9*-0.8*
Black7.17.77.77.9-2.8* (2000-15)-2.8* (2000-15)-2.8*-2.8*
Colon and RectumMaleAll Races41.243.744.144.6-2.5* (2000-08)
-4.1* (2008-11)
-1.4* (2011-15)
-2.5* (2000-08)
-3.7* (2008-12)
-0.6 (2012-15)
-1.4*-1.4*
White40.643.043.743.9-2.6* (2000-08)
-4.5* (2008-11)
-1.0 (2011-15)
-2.7* (2000-08)
-3.9* (2008-12)
-0.2 (2012-15)
-1.0-1.1
Black49.053.453.955.7-1.6* (2000-08)
-3.4* (2008-15)
-2.4* (2000-15)-3.4*-2.4*
FemaleAll Races31.533.433.734.1-2.3* (2000-15)-2.0* (2000-08)
-3.6* (2008-11)
-1.3* (2011-15)
-2.3*-1.3*
White31.233.133.633.8-2.2* (2000-08)
-3.5* (2008-11)
-1.1* (2011-15)
-2.2* (2000-08)
-3.5* (2008-11)
-0.9 (2011-15)
-1.1*-0.9
Black36.238.939.840.6-1.4* (2000-07)
-3.2* (2007-15)
-1.4* (2000-07)
-3.1* (2007-15)
-3.2*-3.1*
Corpus and Uterus NOSFemaleAll Races25.626.526.726.8-1.5 (2000-03)
1.4* (2003-15)
-1.5 (2000-03)
1.5* (2003-15)
1.4*1.5*
White26.327.227.527.6-1.8 (2000-03)
1.3* (2003-15)
-1.9 (2000-03)
1.3* (2003-15)
1.3*1.3*
Black24.525.726.026.42.3* (2000-15)2.3* (2000-15)2.3*2.3*
EsophagusMaleAll Races6.67.07.17.1-0.9* (2000-15)-0.9* (2000-15)-0.9*-0.9*
White7.17.57.67.6-0.3 (2000-15)-0.3 (2000-15)-0.3-0.3
Black5.15.55.55.7-4.9* (2000-15)-4.8* (2000-15)-4.9*-4.8*
FemaleAll Races1.61.71.71.7-1.6* (2000-15)-1.6* (2000-15)-1.6*-1.6*
White1.61.71.71.7-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0*-1.0*
Black2.12.12.32.1-3.8* (2000-15)-3.9* (2000-15)-3.8*-3.9*
Hodgkin LymphomaMaleAll Races2.72.82.92.91.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-15)
1.1 (2000-07)
-1.6* (2007-15)
-1.7*-1.6*
White2.82.93.03.01.2 (2000-07)
-2.1* (2007-15)
1.2 (2000-07)
-2.0* (2007-15)
-2.1*-2.0*
Black2.93.03.13.10.6 (2000-15)0.6 (2000-15)0.60.6
FemaleAll Races2.02.12.22.11.0 (2000-08)
-2.6* (2008-15)
1.0 (2000-08)
-2.6* (2008-15)
-2.6*-2.6*
White2.22.32.32.30.9 (2000-08)
-2.7* (2008-15)
1.2 (2000-07)
-2.4* (2007-15)
-2.7*-2.4*
Black2.02.02.12.10.3 (2000-15)0.3 (2000-15)0.30.3
Kidney and Renal PelvisMaleAll Races20.521.922.622.63.0* (2000-08)
0.4 (2008-15)
3.2* (2000-08)
-0.6 (2008-11)
1.4* (2011-15)
0.41.4*
White21.022.423.223.23.2* (2000-08)
-0.6 (2008-11)
1.5* (2011-15)
3.0* (2000-08)
0.5 (2008-15)
1.5*0.5
Black23.225.425.826.73.2* (2000-09)
-0.1 (2009-15)
3.4* (2000-08)
0.6 (2008-15)
-0.10.6
FemaleAll Races10.711.311.711.63.6* (2000-07)
0.6 (2007-15)
3.6* (2000-07)
0.5 (2007-15)
0.60.5
White11.111.712.312.14.1* (2000-06)
0.8* (2006-15)
4.1* (2000-06)
0.7* (2006-15)
0.8*0.7*
Black11.712.813.013.41.9 (2000-05)
7.5 (2005-08)
-0.3 (2008-15)
2.0 (2000-05)
7.1 (2005-08)
0.0 (2008-15)
-0.30.0
LarynxMaleAll Races4.54.84.84.9-4.3* (2000-03)
-1.9* (2003-12)
-4.9* (2012-15)
-4.4* (2000-03)
-1.8* (2003-11)
-4.0* (2011-15)
-4.2*-4.0*
White4.54.84.94.9-4.1* (2000-03)
-1.4* (2003-11)
-4.3* (2011-15)
-4.1* (2000-03)
-1.4* (2003-11)
-4.2* (2011-15)
-4.3*-4.2*
Black7.07.57.47.7-3.3* (2000-15)-3.3* (2000-15)-3.3*-3.3*
FemaleAll Races1.01.11.11.1-2.1* (2000-15)-2.1* (2000-15)-2.1*-2.1*
White1.11.11.11.1-2.0* (2000-15)-2.0* (2000-15)-2.0*-2.0*
Black1.51.51.61.6-1.7* (2000-15)-1.7* (2000-15)-1.7*-1.7*
LeukemiaMaleAll Races15.116.819.418.9-0.4 (2000-06)
1.7* (2006-15)
-0.4 (2000-06)
1.5* (2006-15)
1.7*1.5*
White15.817.920.820.5-0.1 (2000-06)
1.7* (2006-15)
-0.2 (2000-06)
1.6* (2006-15)
1.7*1.6*
Black11.212.614.914.30.8 (2000-15)0.5 (2000-15)0.80.5
FemaleAll Races9.410.411.911.6-0.3 (2000-05)
1.6* (2005-15)
-0.2 (2000-05)
1.4* (2005-15)
1.6*1.4*
White9.810.912.712.4-0.1 (2000-05)
1.8* (2005-15)
1.2* (2000-15)1.8*1.2*
Black7.98.910.310.0-1.1 (2000-07)
2.7* (2007-15)
-1.2 (2000-07)
2.4* (2007-15)
2.7*2.4*
Liver and Intrahepatic Bile DuctMaleAll Races11.913.714.314.44.2* (2000-09)
2.1* (2009-15)
4.2* (2000-09)
2.1* (2009-15)
2.1*2.1*
White10.612.212.812.80.3 (2000-02)
5.7* (2002-08)
2.8* (2008-15)
0.7 (2000-02)
5.3* (2002-09)
2.4* (2009-15)
2.8*2.4*
Black15.518.418.719.43.5* (2000-15)3.6* (2000-15)3.5*3.6*
FemaleAll Races4.14.84.95.03.1* (2000-15)3.1* (2000-15)3.1*3.1*
White3.84.44.64.7-0.1 (2000-03)
4.2* (2003-15)
-0.2 (2000-03)
4.2* (2003-15)
4.2*4.2*
Black4.15.04.95.33.1* (2000-15)3.2* (2000-15)3.1*3.2*
Lung and BronchusMaleAll Races54.459.660.561.1-1.9* (2000-08)
-3.0* (2008-15)
-1.9* (2000-08)
-3.0* (2008-15)
-3.0*-3.0*
White54.559.760.861.2-1.8* (2000-08)
-3.0* (2008-15)
-1.8* (2000-08)
-3.0* (2008-15)
-3.0*-3.0*
Black66.374.574.176.9-2.8* (2000-15)-2.8* (2000-15)-2.8*-2.8*
FemaleAll Races42.445.947.147.00.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-15)
0.1 (2000-07)
-1.7* (2007-15)
-1.7*-1.7*
White44.648.449.849.50.1 (2000-08)
-2.7* (2008-11)
-0.8* (2011-15)
0.1 (2000-07)
-1.6* (2007-15)
-0.8*-1.6*
Black42.245.647.147.21.6* (2000-05)
-1.4* (2005-15)
1.6* (2000-05)
-1.5* (2005-15)
-1.4*-1.5*
Melanoma of the SkinMaleAll Races26.130.629.331.41.8* (2000-15)2.0* (2000-15)1.8*2.0*
White30.836.135.537.92.1* (2000-15)2.2* (2000-15)2.1*2.2*
Black1.21.21.41.3-0.2 (2000-15)-0.3 (2000-15)-0.2-0.3
FemaleAll Races16.318.818.219.31.4* (2000-15)1.5* (2000-15)1.4*1.5*
White19.822.922.723.91.6* (2000-15)1.8* (2000-15)1.6*1.8*
Black1.01.01.21.11.0 (2000-15)0.9 (2000-15)1.00.9
MyelomaMaleAll Races7.38.29.09.10.5 (2000-06)
3.0* (2006-12)
0.0 (2012-15)
1.7* (2000-15)0.81.7*
White6.97.78.68.51.8* (2000-15)1.7* (2000-15)1.8*1.7*
Black13.015.316.517.41.6* (2000-15)1.6* (2000-15)1.6*1.6*
FemaleAll Races4.95.46.06.00.0 (2000-06)
2.3* (2006-15)
1.4* (2000-15)2.3*1.4*
White4.34.85.45.3-0.2 (2000-06)
2.2* (2006-15)
1.3* (2000-15)2.2*1.3*
Black10.211.412.913.01.9* (2000-15)1.9* (2000-15)1.9*1.9*
Non-Hodgkin LymphomaMaleAll Races21.723.324.024.10.8* (2000-07)
-0.2 (2007-15)
1.1* (2000-05)
-0.1 (2005-15)
-0.2-0.1
White22.624.225.225.30.9* (2000-07)
-0.2 (2007-15)
0.9* (2000-07)
-0.2 (2007-15)
-0.2-0.2
Black15.317.017.218.00.1 (2000-15)0.1 (2000-15)0.10.1
FemaleAll Races14.615.716.216.31.0 (2000-04)
-0.3* (2004-15)
1.0 (2000-04)
-0.3* (2004-15)
-0.3*-0.3*
White15.416.617.217.20.6 (2000-06)
-0.4* (2006-15)
0.6 (2000-06)
-0.4* (2006-15)
-0.4*-0.4*
Black10.411.311.711.90.4 (2000-15)0.4 (2000-15)0.40.4
Oral Cavity and PharynxMaleAll Races16.017.117.417.6-0.5 (2000-05)
1.0* (2005-15)
-0.5 (2000-05)
1.1* (2005-15)
1.0*1.1*
White16.918.118.618.80.1 (2000-05)
1.4* (2005-15)
0.0 (2000-05)
1.5* (2005-15)
1.4*1.5*
Black12.013.113.213.7-2.3* (2000-15)-2.2* (2000-15)-2.3*-2.2*
FemaleAll Races5.96.36.56.50.1 (2000-15)0.1 (2000-15)0.10.1
White6.06.46.66.70.4* (2000-15)0.4* (2000-15)0.4*0.4*
Black5.15.35.65.5-0.7 (2000-15)-0.8 (2000-15)-0.7-0.8
OvaryFemaleAll Races10.711.311.711.7-1.4* (2000-15)-1.4* (2000-15)-1.4*-1.4*
White11.211.912.312.3-1.5* (2000-15)-1.5* (2000-15)-1.5*-1.5*
Black8.18.79.19.1-0.8* (2000-15)-0.8* (2000-15)-0.8*-0.8*
PancreasMaleAll Races13.014.314.814.70.9* (2000-15)0.9* (2000-15)0.9*0.9*
White13.114.515.114.91.1* (2000-15)1.0* (2000-15)1.1*1.0*
Black14.616.916.917.50.3 (2000-15)0.3 (2000-15)0.30.3
FemaleAll Races10.211.311.711.60.9* (2000-15)0.9* (2000-15)0.9*0.9*
White10.111.211.611.61.1* (2000-15)1.1* (2000-15)1.1*1.1*
Black12.714.214.714.70.2 (2000-15)0.2 (2000-15)0.20.2
ProstateMaleAll Races91.0101.6102.5105.7-1.6* (2000-09)
-7.1* (2009-15)
-1.6* (2000-09)
-6.8* (2009-15)
-7.1*-6.8*
White82.593.996.3100.2-1.6* (2000-09)
-7.5* (2009-15)
-1.7* (2000-09)
-7.2* (2009-15)
-7.5*-7.2*
Black136.7157.6163.0171.7-1.7* (2000-10)
-7.4* (2010-15)
-1.9* (2000-10)
-6.8* (2010-15)
-7.4*-6.8*
StomachMaleAll Races8.99.59.69.7-1.3* (2000-15)-1.3* (2000-15)-1.3*-1.3*
White8.18.68.98.9-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0*-1.0*
Black11.913.213.113.7-0.7 (2000-08)
-7.6 (2008-11)
0.4 (2011-15)
-0.8 (2000-08)
-7.7 (2008-11)
1.0 (2011-15)
0.41.0
FemaleAll Races4.65.05.05.1-0.6* (2000-15)-0.6* (2000-15)-0.6*-0.6*
White4.04.34.44.4-0.4* (2000-15)-0.4* (2000-15)-0.4*-0.4*
Black6.87.57.57.8-1.6* (2000-15)-1.6* (2000-15)-1.6*-1.6*
TestisMaleAll Races5.45.75.75.80.7* (2000-15)0.8* (2000-15)0.7*0.8*
White6.46.86.86.90.8* (2000-15)0.8* (2000-15)0.8*0.8*
Black1.21.41.31.40.9 (2000-15)1.0 (2000-15)0.91.0
ThyroidMaleAll Races7.27.67.67.76.2* (2000-09)
2.5* (2009-15)
6.2* (2000-09)
2.7* (2009-15)
2.5*2.7*
White7.78.18.18.36.4* (2000-09)
2.4* (2009-15)
6.3* (2000-09)
2.5* (2009-15)
2.4*2.5*
Black3.63.83.83.94.0* (2000-15)4.1* (2000-15)4.0*4.1*
FemaleAll Races20.921.722.022.16.9* (2000-09)
2.6* (2009-13)
0.4 (2013-15)
7.0* (2000-09)
2.1* (2009-15)
1.5*2.1*
White22.023.023.423.57.2* (2000-09)
1.9* (2009-15)
7.1* (2000-09)
2.0* (2009-15)
1.9*2.0*
Black12.813.713.714.15.4* (2000-15)5.4* (2000-15)5.4*5.4*
Urinary BladderMaleAll Races30.732.933.433.70.0 (2000-07)
-1.4* (2007-15)
0.1 (2000-06)
-1.3* (2006-15)
-1.4*-1.3*
White33.436.036.937.30.0 (2000-07)
-1.3* (2007-15)
0.2 (2000-06)
-1.2* (2006-15)
-1.3*-1.2*
Black17.118.919.219.8-0.0 (2000-15)0.0 (2000-15)-0.00.0
FemaleAll Races7.47.98.18.1-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0* (2000-15)-1.0*-1.0*
White7.98.48.78.7-0.9* (2000-15)-0.9* (2000-15)-0.9*-0.9*
Black6.16.76.97.0-0.8* (2000-15)-0.8* (2000-15)-0.8*-0.8*